Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 4 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Do you think this or 94L would snag Chris? Toss up. 94L looks better on satellite than it ever has. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 4 minutes ago, cardinalland said: Seeing likely 2-3 storms in one week in the Atlantic in June is impressive. I imagine we'll see a lull after as the current kelvin wave is leaving the area, and once the next kelvin wave comes around it's off to the races... Which storm names do you think we're gonna see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Just now, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Toss up. 94L looks better on satellite than it ever has. You never know 94L might be Chris and future 96L might be Debby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 94l might actually luck out jfl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Even the hyperactive record breaking seasons of 2020 and 2021 didn't have what's trying to happen right now with a major hurricane and another trying to form right behind it this far east heading into the Caribbean at the same time in late June/early July. This definitely provokes 2005 and a little bit of 1933 which were massive anomalies. Maybe the ECMWF wasn't hallucinating when it was predicting the most active hurricane season ever since it first went online back in the early 90s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 94l might actually luck out jflShould help Mexico City with the drought.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 23 minutes ago, Bhs1975 said: Should help Mexico City with the drought. . Lifefuel for Mexico City residents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 It’s still June. absurdity 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 It’s still June. absurdity The basin really does look and feel like late August. We will still have a seasonal lull here and there between MJO phases and temporary pattern shifts, but overall, confidence is high on a hyperactive season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Total # of NS through July 1st (excluding NS before May 1): 2024: 3 with small chance for 4 due to 96L 2023: 3 2022: 3 2021: 5 2020: 4 2019: 1 2018: 1 2017: 2 2016: 3 2015: 2 2014: 1 2013: 2 2012: 4 2011: 1 2010: 1 2009: 0 2008: 1 2007: 2 2006: 1 2005: 2 2004: 0 2003: 1 2002: 0 2001: 1 2000: 0 1999: 1 1998: 0 1997: 2 1996: 1 1995: 1 AVG 1995-2023: 1.5 So, going back to 1995, only 2021, 2020, and 2012 had a higher #. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 7 minutes ago, GaWx said: Total # of NS through July 1st (excluding NS before May 1): 2024: 3 with small chance for 4 due to 96L 2023: 3 2022: 3 2021: 5 2020: 4 2019: 1 2018: 1 2017: 2 2016: 3 2015: 2 2014: 1 2013: 2 2012: 4 2011: 1 2010: 1 2009: 0 2008: 1 2007: 2 2006: 1 2005: 2 2004: 0 2003: 1 2002: 0 2001: 1 2000: 0 1999: 1 1998: 0 1997: 2 1996: 1 1995: 1 AVG 1995-2023: 1.5 So, going back to 1995, only 2021, 2020, and 2012 had a higher #. This escalated quickly lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 1 Author Share Posted July 1 Since 1995, we have seen a Cat 1+ develop before July 15, 11 times. I know it's not saying much, but that's only 42% of the time. The average for those seasons is, 16.5 NS, 8.7 Hurr, 3.8 MH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Just from Beryl, our ACE may approach our average level for mid-August by the end of this week. How’s that for a head start for the ACE folks out there? 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 1 Author Share Posted July 1 The early season Cat 3+ storms were: Emily 2005 (7-17) 160mph Dennis 2005 (7-10) 145mph Audrey 1957 (6-27) 145mph Unnamed 1926 (7-26) 140mph Alma 1966 (6-8) 125mph Bertha 2008 (7-8) 120mph Unnamed 1916 (7-5) 120mph Unnamed 1916 (7-14) 115mph Unnamed 1945 (6-23) 115mph Able 1951 (5-21) 115mph Anna 1961 (7-21) 115mph Bertha 1996 (7-6) 115mph Average for these seasons 15.3 NS/yr (long term average is 9-10) 8.8 Hurr/yr (long term average is 5) 4.7 MH/yr (long term average is 2-3) (if there were 2 storms in the same year, I used that year twice.) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 My only hesitation with a hyper active season is that we've seen some similarities globally at 500 mb to June 2007. That season had two category five hurricanes, and many storms impact the same areas of Central America (Barry, Dean, Erin, Felix, Lorenzo, Olga)...but it still wasn't super active. Tons of storms - just mostly weak systems with the super systems sprinkled in. The Atlantic is much warmer than 2007 right now. So I wouldn't go as low as 2007 ACE. But something like a 2007 / 2017 blend (150 ACE) seems possible still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 5 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: The early big storm being the biggests, that would be nice. I don't know much about planetary waves, but I don't see why as summer progresses, the waters warm more, and South America starts to cool as the sun angle heads back for the equator, weakening trades in the Caribbean, that they'll be more majors It, indeed, would be nice and I’ll hope for it. Unfortunately though, the 7 years before 2024 with at least one MH in May-July ALL had stronger storms than their respective early storms after July and all but one had stronger landfalls after July: 1. 2005 had early MHs Emily 160 mph and Dennis 145 at peaks. Even as strong as Emily was, 3 later storms were stronger than Emily (185-175)! Regarding landfalls, Emily hit at 130 and Dennis at 140 at their strongest. But Wilma hit Cozumel at 150. 2. 1957’s early MH 125 mph/946 mb Audrey was not as strong as Carrie’s peak 140 mph/945 mb. However, Audrey’s 125 mph landfall was by far the strongest landfall of the season. That is the only case on record for which an early season MH had the strongest landfall of the season. 3. 1926’s early MH Nassau H peaked at 140 and landfalled at 135. But Great Miami H peaked/landfalled at 150 in Bahamas. And the Great Havana H also peaked/landfalled at 150 (in Cuba). 4. 1966’s MH Alma peaked/landfalled at 115. But Faith reached 120 (no landfall) and Inez peaked/landfalled way up at 165 (DR). 5. 2008’s MH Bertha peaked at 125 with no landfall. But 4 later storms were stronger (155-130). 6. 1916 had two early MHs, the stronger of which peaked/landfalled at 120. But the later in season TX H peaked/landfalled at 130. 7. 1996’s MH Bertha peaked at 115 and landfalled in NC at 105. But 3 later storms peaked stronger (145-120) and Fran landfalled at 120 in NC. May-July major ATL hurricanes: https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/articles/early-season-major-hurricanes 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 What was the WAM in 2007? I think the combination of extraordinary warmth/depth in the basin with a more classic AMO, WAM, and building Nina is going to give us plenty of high end activity. My only hesitation at this point is the continuation of vigorous waves pushing anomalously high SAL through the eastern MDR, triggering more stability issues than initially thought. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 2 hours ago, raindancewx said: My only hesitation with a hyper active season is that we've seen some similarities globally at 500 mb to June 2007. That season had two category five hurricanes, and many storms impact the same areas of Central America (Barry, Dean, Erin, Felix, Lorenzo, Olga)...but it still wasn't super active. Tons of storms - just mostly weak systems with the super systems sprinkled in. The Atlantic is much warmer than 2007 right now. So I wouldn't go as low as 2007 ACE. But something like a 2007 / 2017 blend (150 ACE) seems possible still. Lorenzo? I thought he went to Europe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 2 hours ago, raindancewx said: My only hesitation with a hyper active season is that we've seen some similarities globally at 500 mb to June 2007. That season had two category five hurricanes, and many storms impact the same areas of Central America (Barry, Dean, Erin, Felix, Lorenzo, Olga)...but it still wasn't super active. Tons of storms - just mostly weak systems with the super systems sprinkled in. The Atlantic is much warmer than 2007 right now. So I wouldn't go as low as 2007 ACE. But something like a 2007 / 2017 blend (150 ACE) seems possible still. I think we'll have quieter periods when the MJO becomes unfavorable. But you do see the linear correlation here between SSTs and Storms. With -3c holding in the ENSO subsurface, I think we will get 15-16 named storms at the minimum.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 1980 had the earliest Cat 5 for a while when Allen reached it on August 5. That season had 9 Hurricanes, 2 MH. 2005 then did it in July, when Emily did it on July 16. That season had 28 NS, 15, Hurr, 8 MH. Camille did it in mid-August 1969. That season, in the middle of -AMO had 18 named storms, 12 Hurricanes, 3 MH. Dean: August 18, 2007. 15 named storms, 6 Hurricanes, 2 MH. Not really any other examples before late August. Andrew was next, Aug 23-24, 1992. That was an El Nino year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 I suspect it may be related to Beryl ahead of it, but 96L now has low chances of development. Good news FWIW, just a glance at the MJO page, it shouldn't be in a favorable phase for TCs in the basin for a couple of weeks, and after Beryl, Euro 4 week TC probs show nothing in the Atlantic and WPAC finally picking up. No reason the next favorable period of the global waves (I have very limited understanding of them, that seems to be the domain of grad students, professors and post-docs) is there is no reason a month closer to peak season, when I gets hint the next active period starts won't be at least as active. Or that ASO in what seems a favorable pattern won't produce storms even when even when the MJO and friends aren't otherwise in positions that would support development. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 53 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I suspect it may be related to Beryl ahead of it, but 96L now has low chances of development. Good news FWIW, just a glance at the MJO page, it shouldn't be in a favorable phase for TCs in the basin for a couple of weeks, and after Beryl, Euro 4 week TC probs show nothing in the Atlantic and WPAC finally picking up. Atlantic needs a big rest 53 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: No reason the next favorable period of the global waves (I have very limited understanding of them, that seems to be the domain of grad students, professors and post-docs) is there is no reason a month closer to peak season, when I gets hint the next active period starts won't be at least as active. Or that ASO in what seems a favorable pattern won't produce storms even when even when the MJO and friends aren't otherwise in positions that would support development. I’m a bit lost here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 8 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Atlantic needs a big rest I’m a bit lost here The basin slows down, probably for 4 or 5 weeks, then the next more favorable phase happens, and there should be at least as much cyclone activity since it is closer to the climatological peak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 51 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: The basin slows down, probably for 4 or 5 weeks, then the next more favorable phase happens, and there should be at least as much cyclone activity since it is closer to the climatological peak. july is usually a quiet month.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 1 hour ago, nycwinter said: july is usually a quiet month.. In the deep tropics, so is June. Expecting the next planetary wave favorability period in a month when the oceans are even warmer to not be active because July isn't usually active is bad. The one thing I'll mention, for any pro-mets, I have a week understanding of Rossby and Kelvin waves and even my MJO knowledge is limited. I Google academic papers and don't recall enough physics to understand much of anything. The ability to read engineering and geological peer reviewed papers in my old life enable me to understand many academic papers, but not so much the waves. I Tweet at Dr. Roundy to ask beginner level questions, like, when he thinks the next favorable period starts. His answer was ~4 weeks, and his answer was he expects more activity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 I still think we get 2-4 NS in July. I dont think there is going to be an unfavorable period in this season, just varying degrees of favorability. If we are getting a cat 5 damn near in June this season is trying to tell us something (nevermind the cat five developed under less than ideal conditions to begin with) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Take this as you will, but I have been working on a model to predict Atlantic ACE, using data as far back as 1975, and for the 2024 season it is forecasting an ACE of 152 (90% chance it will be between 102-202). Given the action so far, I would assume the season ends up on the higher end of this range, but it is an underwhelming projection compared to others. A key reason for this is that the Atlantic SST pattern has become a bit less favorable during the past month. Below is the plot that shows how the model would have verified in previous years (2022 and 2023 outputs were made in real time). 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 56 minutes ago, Supercane said: Take this as you will, but I have been working on a model to predict Atlantic ACE, using data as far back as 1975, and for the 2024 season it is forecasting an ACE of 152 (90% chance it will be between 102-202). Given the action so far, I would assume the season ends up on the higher end of this range, but it is an underwhelming projection compared to others. A key reason for this is that the Atlantic SST pattern has become a bit less favorable during the past month. Below is the plot that shows how the model would have verified in previous years (2022 and 2023 outputs were made in real time). Is it because Beryl sucked out all the hot water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 96L is still showing a nice big area of convection and models have it developing in the Gulf. Might need to keep an eye on that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 1 minute ago, cptcatz said: 96L is still showing a nice big area of convection and models have it developing in the Gulf. Might need to keep an eye on that. I was about to post this. 96L has been picking up support from models since yesterday. Delayed development but there is a signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now