Jebman Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 No doubt about it. 2024 will turbomog all other seasons so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 3 hours ago, tiger_deF said: That’s tough. I personally think this year might have quality over quantity (unlike say 2020). I wouldn’t be surprised if we busted under in terms of ACE, but I think it’s likely we will be tracking some formidable systems. around which name do you think we will start to see the moggers come in? 3 hours ago, tiger_deF said: For being so concise your slang list is no cap, fr man Thank you, fr man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 2 hours ago, Normandy said: Jesus we got a youngin here talking all crazy. Talking slang and shit. I’m almost 29 so not that young but I wish I were again jfl 2 hours ago, Normandy said: This season is about to slang out a bunch of storms towards land this year. You can already tell how west based all the development is so far. Climate models thus far are nailing it I wonder around which name we would start to see the moggers coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 50 minutes ago, Jebman said: Hurricane Ian sure rizzed things up! And he mogs Idalia to the depths of the Gulf. 50 minutes ago, Jebman said: I absolutely love all the new terms! Please get us all up to speed! Old dogs can learn new tricks! I will as the season goes on I’ll update the glossary 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 43 minutes ago, Jebman said: No doubt about it. 2024 will turbomog all other seasons so far. Let’s see if it happens. Going to wait for the first real mogger storm to get a feel but I hope they don’t mog too much buildings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 26 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: I’m almost 29 so not that young but I wish I were again jfl I wonder around which name we would start to see the moggers coming in. Debby or Ernesto. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 29 minutes ago, Jebman said: Debby or Ernesto. Leaning towards which one of these two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 7 hours ago, tiger_deF said: Sorry, one of two Gen Z Anyway it’s looking more and more likely that we will get some June/July MDR action. Major SAL outbreak is going to dampen activity some, but conditions will be quite favorable otherwise. I always thought I was the only one here, glad to know I’m not completely alone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 56 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Leaning towards which one of these two? I am thinking one of those, not leaning particularly toward Deb or Ernesto. Could even be both, for all we know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 2 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: And he mogs Idalia to the depths of the Gulf. I will as the season goes on I’ll update the glossary If you dont mind, I'd really appreciate it if you would correct me, I want to learn correct usage of these terms in the context of hurricane season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 2 hours ago, Jebman said: I am thinking one of those, not leaning particularly toward Deb or Ernesto. Could even be both, for all we know. For them to be majors? I’m thinking Ernesto tbh, sounds like a chad and looks like that name belongs on a mogger hurricane. Also I think he might come after a lull, I dunno. But imagine if Deb and Ernesto are twin moggers. 2 hours ago, Jebman said: If you dont mind, I'd really appreciate it if you would correct me, I want to learn correct usage of these terms in the context of hurricane season. Ian mogs Idalia to the depths of the Gulf because he was a category 5 and did more damage than Idalia. no problem I will correct you as well as the season goes on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Will Beryl and Chris mog or will they be looksmatched with Bret from last year? Let’s see if it’s just EPS hypemaxxing or if they’ll mog Bertha to Bikini Bottom and back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 as a GenZer i am thoroughly horrified. Having 2013 as the top analog based on the last 30 days is interesting. The Western Atlantic is much warmer this year though, so I think 2024 is different where it matters for an Atlantic season. The presence of vigorous Cape Verde waves this early is a strong sign like 2017. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 47 minutes ago, cardinalland said: as a GenZer i am thoroughly horrified. Why are you horrified, and at what? 47 minutes ago, cardinalland said: Having 2013 as the top analog based on the last 30 days is interesting. Where does it say? 47 minutes ago, cardinalland said: The Western Atlantic is much warmer this year though, so I think 2024 is different where it matters for an Atlantic season. The presence of vigorous Cape Verde waves this early is a strong sign like 2017. Do you think 2024 will mog 2017? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 What if Beryl or Chris cross basins and Bonniemaxxes? https://x.com/BhatiaKieran/status/1805939163570540877 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 6 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: I always thought I was the only one here, glad to know I’m not completely alone Damn I thought I was the youngest person on here too lol. I’m 24 but I always assume everyone is at least a decade older than me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 23 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: Damn I thought I was the youngest person on here too lol. I’m 24 but I always assume everyone is at least a decade older than me Am I the only Millennial that knows all this slang? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 12Z runs for TW SW of CV Islands: -GFS/CMC TS+ Lesser Antilles ~7/1; so CMC stronger than 0Z and similar to yesterday’s 12Z -ICON stronger low than 0Z/borderline TD? -UKMET still no TC through 168 -GEFS still rather active Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form over the tropical Atlantic by the end of the week or this weekend while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 For TW SW of CV: 12Z Euro is much stronger as it has a TS on 7/1 in the Lesser Antilles and a hurricane later on in the Caribbean! I’m pretty sure we’ll need a separate thread for this soon. @Ed, snow and hurricane fanwant to start it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 3 minutes ago, GaWx said: For TW SW of CV: 12Z Euro is much stronger as it has a TS on 7/1 in the Lesser Antilles and a hurricane later on in the Caribbean! I’m pretty sure we’ll need a separate thread for this soon. What peak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 2 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: What peak? 951 mb at 240 coming onto the coast of the Yucatan! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 1 minute ago, GaWx said: 951 mb at 240 coming onto the coast of the Yucatan! Which model is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 jfl it's over ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94): A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized shower activity while it moves rapidly westward at around 25 mph. Environmental conditions could become more conducive for some gradual development in a couple of days over the western Caribbean Sea or over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. 2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form over the tropical Atlantic by the end of the week or this weekend while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Pasch/Roberts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 19 minutes ago, GaWx said: For TW SW of CV: 12Z Euro is much stronger as it has a TS on 7/1 in the Lesser Antilles and a hurricane later on in the Caribbean! I’m pretty sure we’ll need a separate thread for this soon. @Ed, snow and hurricane fanwant to start it? I'm not territorial about these things. I was waiting for an invest tag. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 19 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Which model is this? It's "just" the Euro model. I remember a GFS run back in 2007 that totally got Dean's track/timing/intensity right like 2 weeks in advance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 2 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Why are you horrified, and at what? Where does it say? Do you think 2024 will mog 2017? 1 hour ago, Intensewind002 said: Damn I thought I was the youngest person on here too lol. I’m 24 but I always assume everyone is at least a decade older than me 1 hour ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Am I the only Millennial that knows all this slang? I’m 5+ decades older and that why, to me, this tread is a gas. Stay vocal, as always ….. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 12Z Euro ensemble is its most active run yet at Lesser Antilles ~July 1st 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 1 hour ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Am I the only Millennial that knows all this slang? Maybe lmao, half the older gen zs dont even know it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 TW SW of CV: Once past the Lesser Antilles the 12Z Euro ensemble tracks most concentrated toward Cuba to Nicaragua corridor followed by good number hitting MX/TX/W LA while minority threaten PR to SE US with only very few recurving offshore the E US coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 I tend to think the GFS ensembles are correct in showing members entering the Caribbean weaken and die. The ones missing N of the islands menace ECUSA but stay offshore. Many models/ensembles also picking up on something behind the first E ATL wave, which would be something I don't recall, an active June/July MDR wave train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now