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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season


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3 hours ago, tiger_deF said:

That’s tough. I personally think this year might have quality over quantity (unlike say 2020). I wouldn’t be surprised if we busted under in terms of ACE, but I think it’s likely we will be tracking some formidable systems.


 

around which name do you think we will start to see the moggers come in?

3 hours ago, tiger_deF said:

For being so concise your slang list is no cap, fr man

Thank you, fr man!

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2 hours ago, Normandy said:

Jesus we got a youngin here talking all crazy.  Talking slang and shit.  
 

I’m almost 29 so not that young but I wish I were again jfl

2 hours ago, Normandy said:

This season is about to slang out a bunch of storms towards land this year.  You can already tell how west based all the development is so far.  Climate models thus far are nailing it

I wonder around which name we would start to see the moggers coming in.

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50 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Hurricane Ian sure rizzed things up!

And he mogs Idalia to the depths of the Gulf.

50 minutes ago, Jebman said:


I absolutely love all the new terms! Please get us all up to speed!

Old dogs can learn new tricks!

I will as the season goes on I’ll update the glossary

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7 hours ago, tiger_deF said:

Sorry, one of two Gen Z ;)

Anyway it’s looking more and more likely that we will get some June/July MDR action. Major SAL outbreak is going to dampen activity some, but conditions will be quite favorable otherwise.

I always thought I was the only one here, glad to know I’m not completely alone :)

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2 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

And he mogs Idalia to the depths of the Gulf.

I will as the season goes on I’ll update the glossary

If you dont mind, I'd really appreciate it if you would correct me, I want to learn correct usage of these terms in the context of hurricane season.

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2 hours ago, Jebman said:

I am thinking one of those, not leaning particularly toward Deb or Ernesto. Could even be both, for all we know.

For them to be majors?

I’m thinking Ernesto tbh, sounds like a chad and looks like that name belongs on a mogger hurricane.

Also I think he might come after a lull, I dunno.

But imagine if Deb and Ernesto are twin moggers.

2 hours ago, Jebman said:

If you dont mind, I'd really appreciate it if you would correct me, I want to learn correct usage of these terms in the context of hurricane season.

Ian mogs Idalia to the depths of the Gulf because he was a category 5 and did more damage than Idalia.

no problem I will correct you as well as the season goes on.

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47 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

as a GenZer i am thoroughly horrified.

 

Why are you horrified, and at what?

47 minutes ago, cardinalland said:
 

Where does it say?

47 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

The Western Atlantic is much warmer this year though, so I think 2024 is different where it matters for an Atlantic season. The presence of vigorous Cape Verde waves this early is a strong sign like 2017.

 

Do you think 2024 will mog 2017?

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12Z runs for TW SW of CV Islands:

-GFS/CMC TS+ Lesser Antilles ~7/1; so CMC stronger than 0Z and similar to yesterday’s 12Z

-ICON stronger low than 0Z/borderline TD?

-UKMET still no TC through 168

-GEFS still rather active

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some development is possible during the next several
days, and a tropical depression could form over the tropical
Atlantic by the end of the week or this weekend while the system
moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
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jfl it's over

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is producing 
disorganized shower activity while it moves rapidly westward at 
around 25 mph.  Environmental conditions could become more conducive 
for some gradual development in a couple of days over the western 
Caribbean Sea or over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the 
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the 
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Some development is possible during the next several image.png.c68d5c2705f38953a35b1217a0ef5e5d.png
days, and a tropical depression could form over the tropical 
Atlantic by the end of the week or this weekend while the system 
moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

 

 

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19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

For TW SW of CV:

 12Z Euro is much stronger as it has a TS on 7/1 in the Lesser Antilles and a hurricane later on in the Caribbean!

 I’m pretty sure we’ll need a separate thread for this soon.

@Ed, snow and hurricane fanwant to start it?

I'm not territorial about these things.  I was waiting for an invest tag.

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19 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Which model is this?

It's "just" the Euro model. I remember a GFS run back in 2007 that totally got Dean's track/timing/intensity right like 2 weeks in advance

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2 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Why are you horrified, and at what?

Where does it say?

Do you think 2024 will mog 2017?

 

1 hour ago, Intensewind002 said:

Damn I thought I was the youngest person on here too lol. I’m 24 but I always assume everyone is at least a decade older than me

 

1 hour ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Am I the only Millennial that knows all this slang?

I’m 5+ decades older and that why, to me, this tread is a gas. Stay vocal, as always …..

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TW SW of CV: Once past the Lesser Antilles the 12Z Euro ensemble tracks most concentrated toward Cuba to Nicaragua corridor followed by good number hitting MX/TX/W LA while minority threaten PR to SE US with only very few recurving offshore the E US coast

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I tend to think the GFS ensembles are correct in showing members entering the Caribbean weaken and die.  The ones missing N of the islands menace ECUSA but stay offshore. 

 

Many models/ensembles also picking up on something behind the first E ATL wave, which would be something I don't recall, an active June/July MDR wave train.

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