GaWx Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 For W Caribbean cherry, 12Z UKMET is even further N as it doesn’t even cross the Yucatan on NW trek into middle of the Gulf: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 17.5N 80.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 05.11.2024 96 17.5N 80.9W 1004 31 0000UTC 06.11.2024 108 18.5N 82.8W 1004 33 1200UTC 06.11.2024 120 20.8N 84.7W 1004 31 0000UTC 07.11.2024 132 21.9N 87.2W 1003 33 1200UTC 07.11.2024 144 23.8N 88.5W 1002 37 0000UTC 08.11.2024 156 24.7N 89.7W 1002 35 1200UTC 08.11.2024 168 25.4N 91.4W 1004 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 27 minutes ago, GaWx said: For W Caribbean cherry, 12Z UKMET is even further N as it doesn’t even cross the Yucatan on NW trek into middle of the Gulf: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 17.5N 80.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 05.11.2024 96 17.5N 80.9W 1004 31 0000UTC 06.11.2024 108 18.5N 82.8W 1004 33 1200UTC 06.11.2024 120 20.8N 84.7W 1004 31 0000UTC 07.11.2024 132 21.9N 87.2W 1003 33 1200UTC 07.11.2024 144 23.8N 88.5W 1002 37 0000UTC 08.11.2024 156 24.7N 89.7W 1002 35 1200UTC 08.11.2024 168 25.4N 91.4W 1004 37 Never really develops it though....maybe a weak TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Never really develops it though....maybe a weak TS Yeah it doesn’t develop it much, but the UKMET normally downplays strength significantly before a TC forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 NHC is playing catch up with this one approaching the Azores: North Atlantic: A low pressure system located a few hundred miles west of the Azores has been producing increased convection near its center over the past few hours. Earlier satellite derived wind data depicted winds to storm-force mainly to the south of the the center. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some additional development and the system could become a subtropical or tropical storm as it moves generally eastward during the next few days. Interest in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system. Additional information on this system is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 The storm nearing the Azores is now Invest 96L. This could become Patty soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 There are wild differences with how this impacts weather in the Southeast next week. GEPS and increasing EPS members are as bad as another PRE and follow-up TC in some areas impacted by Helene, but GEFS are much drier with stronger ridging. Aside from not knowing where the Caribbean system eventually develops and tracks, the Pacific pattern and wave cutting off in the Southwest are the other parts of the uncertainty. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 1 hour ago, GaWx said: The storm nearing the Azores is now Invest 96L. This could become Patty soon. Organization is there, convection remains quite shallow. I think they could have upgraded at 5pm, but NHC might be looking for more robust convection before doing so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 It's possible we get to our S named storm in the next week or two. Maybe the models really weren't wrong about this potentially being hyperactive. Obviously depends if all 3 areas develop but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 SW Caribbean is 80% prob now in 7 day, 40% in 2. N central Atlc is 50% per 8PM TWO. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 16 hours ago, GaWx said: The storm nearing the Azores is now Invest 96L. This could become Patty soon. STS Patty it is this morning 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 Euro has had several runs with the system in the Caribbean coming north with a Helene like path. We’ve had about half an inch of rain here near GSO since Helene and really need some rain. I know the mountains don’t need a tropical system though. TW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 3 Share Posted November 3 18 hours ago, tarheelwx said: Euro has had several runs with the system in the Caribbean coming north with a Helene like path. We’ve had about half an inch of rain here near GSO since Helene and really need some rain. I know the mountains don’t need a tropical system though. TW . This became Invest 97L yesterday. Most models have it becoming a TC but interestingly the 0Z UKMET dropped it for TCG. I think it will be wrong. It still has a surface low, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 3 Share Posted November 3 Turn back your clocks! Here’s the 1AM EST TWO: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical Storm Patty, located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean near the Azores Islands. 1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL97): Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while moving generally northward to northwestward over the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba. Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. 2. Near the Greater Antilles: A trough of low pressure just north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds over the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic. Slow development of this system is possible during the day or two while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles. By early this week, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean Sea (AL97). Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next couple of days across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 3 Share Posted November 3 Based on preliminary stats, October of 2024 had the 5th highest ACE on record for any Oct back to 1851: 1. 1878: 87.8 2. 1894: 76.1 3. 2016: 71.3 4. 1893: 67.5 5. 2024: 66.8 (preliminary) 6. 1963: 63.1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted November 3 Share Posted November 3 12z GFS is pretty wild. Has at least 4 systems develop through the entire run and possibly a 5th storm lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 3 Share Posted November 3 New one on TWO that most models at least hint at: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024 Southwestern Atlantic: An area of disturbed weather is expected to develop near the northern Leeward Islands around the middle of the week. Some slow development of this system is possible after that time as it moves generally westward over the southwestern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 The GFS still wants to pop another hurricane in the western Caribbean in a week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 lol 12z GFS has that hurricane in the Caribbean bottoming out to 915mb on Nov 16th. Definitely seems like there's a signal for something to develop though but that's still 6 days or so before it shows anything actually developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 I wouldn't doubt another system in mid to late November. This is a definite backlogged hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted November 7 Share Posted November 7 GFS isn't on an island with this next possible one. Today's 12z CMC shows a banafide storm and EPS shows a solid signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted November 10 Share Posted November 10 Curious to see how the next western Caribbean system plays out with a strong sub-tropical ridge over the Bahamas and a stout -NAO potentially developing. The Pacific pattern is what ends up being important for a northward track due to how it affects the breakdown of ridging from the Yucatan channel into the western Gulf. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 Looking interesting for TC Cuba-Fl northeastward about the 20th... 00z/11 GEFS solid D9 signal.... GEPS a little bit, and EPS again lagging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 It looks like there's a pretty decent chance the Caribbean system will try to develop. How strong it gets may come down to how much land interaction there is. Models are showing it at least scraping Central America. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 What is the ACE for the season now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 4 minutes ago, FPizz said: What is the ACE for the season now? 159.8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 with the active November on going, we might have a top hurricane season if all time when it’s all said and done. Unthinkable considering where we were in July and august lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 This season has the 13th highest ACE since 1950 (so out of 75 seasons) which puts it in the top 20% in that period. To reach the top 10% it would have to attain an ACE of 182, which is unlikely but not impossible given the anticipated slow movement and high strength of this new system. Either way, we've experienced quite an active season. To reach top 10 in this period an ACE of 166 is needed, which is likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 If the Carib system becomes a hurricane, it will become the 12th in the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Only four other Atlantic seasons have seen this quantity of hurricanes on record: 2005 (15), 2020 (14), 1969 (12) and 2010 (12). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 Yikes. 942 mb on GFS at 1wk out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago The 12Z GEFS has a significant increase in the number of members with a tropical cyclone in the W Caribbean next week….interesting. Another TC or two this year would not be surprising with the still very warm W Caribbean and when looking back at the last 30 years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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