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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season


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On 10/23/2024 at 11:33 AM, MANDA said:

Thought these graphics were interesting & impressive in regards to Helene:

Screenshot 2024-10-23 at 10.36.58 AM.jpg

Screenshot 2024-10-23 at 10.39.24 AM.jpg

Screenshot 2024-10-23 at 10.38.46 AM.jpg

Screenshot 2024-10-23 at 10.38.52 AM.jpg

I would think the Hurricane of 1938 would be up there too. It took trees down way north into northern New England. Do you have that graphic? 

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 Euro Weeklies back to very active for Nov 4-10  with activity quite possible subsequent week as well. Nov 4-10 has jumped back up to 3.8 x climo (8-8.5 ACE) vs yesterday’s 2.1 (4-4.5 ACE):

IMG_0616.png.eb213aaeba21ab2b0320c629ebb80217.png

  It not only is back to very active but also the shaded areas are back to including S FL and now even C FL. This is the highest risk shown for that week by any Weeklies run for FL, Bahamas, and W 1/2 of Cuba:

IMG_0618.png.fdeb6ce2f6cdbe0ac675dd05f9a524ad.png

 

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It's not unusual for a global operational run to miss resolving tropical cyclone genesis when that has yet to occur IRL, even during several days of repeated runs showing a TC. But the 12z GFS still has a TC making landfall in Haiti. But it is not good to focus on specifics like tracks and intensity with a chaotic pattern and big swings in motion. We don't even have an organized disturbance yet, much less a vortex, though we do have pressures beginning to fall that should lead to a surface trough developing. As such, convection is beginning to pop over the SW Caribbean.

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5 hours ago, Windspeed said:

It's not unusual for a global operational run to miss resolving tropical cyclone genesis when that has yet to occur IRL, even during several days of repeated runs showing a TC. But the 12z GFS still has a TC making landfall in Haiti. But it is not good to focus on specifics like tracks and intensity with a chaotic pattern and big swings in motion. We don't even have an organized disturbance yet, much less a vortex, though we do have pressures beginning to fall that should lead to a surface trough developing. As such, convection is beginning to pop over the SW Caribbean.

I see that, however I have slightly elevated concern about possible TC development in the next week.

Hopefully, I am nothing more than an old man worrywort.

Yeah, that's probably it.

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea around the middle of next week. Some
gradual development of this system will be possible through the end
of next week while it meanders or drifts northeastward over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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 7 of 30 (23%) of the 18Z GEFS members landfall in the CONUS within Nov 6-10 from something forming in 5-7 days, either the lemon mentioned above (5) or something near PR (2).

*Edit: The 0Z had 5 while the 6Z ended up with 7, with most of these from the current lemon.

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this
week or over the weekend when the system begins to drift northward
or northeastward over the southwestern and south-central Caribbean
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Cangialosi

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 Whereas the 12Z Euro didn’t have a TC, the 12Z Euro ensemble is the most active yet by a good margin as regards landfalling member % on the CONUS. Out of 50 members, 9 (18%) hit FL within Nov 7-12 with even a 10th still in the GOM at 360 (a MH) aiming to hit FL ~Nov 13th. Out of these 9 that hit, 7 appear to be H strength with one a MH. Of the 9 that hit, 2 hit the Panhandle, 4 hit the Big Bend, and 3 hit SW FL (S of Tampa). There are also 2 that miss to the E but hit parts of the W Bahamas.

 In summary, this run is a bit ominous for W FL. By the way, I count a total of ~18 members (36%) with a TC on the run from whatever source.

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A late season TC-Hurr may still yet form in the sw Caribbean, but it's not going to my posted thinking of at least a week ago, occurring prior to Election Day. MY wrong interpretation and unless something changes in. hurry, my buy in to the GEFS mid range was probably wrong for initial TC development near Halloween, as others indicated herein. 

Patience I'm sure but whatever it is,  seems like if any se USA impact, it would be later than Nov 5,

NJ-PA: 00z/29 EPS/GEFS 5H pattern is quite different toward Nov 9.  We need rain up here in NJ/e PA... for now, doesn't loo like any TC related rain before the 8th. A good portion of our autumn rain up here is TC related. Not a good situation for NJ/e PA.  

Will keep monitoring but my confidence has dimmed a bit.

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Crazy lack of certainty with this system.  Looks like it's between either getting strung out and heading straight northeast through the Greater Antilles and out to sea, or it moves northwest through the Caribbean, into the GoM, and then cuts back across Florida.  GFS has been showing the strung out northeast, GEFS seems to have a lot of members going into the GoM, Euro shows just a broad gyre, while many EPS members also show going into the GoM.  Looks like Canadian and its ensembles also support the GoM track.  Quite a significant difference in tracks with an already battered Florida in the path of one of them.

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12Z GFS took a TS into the gulf, borderline small cane. It just continues NW and de-amps over the NW gulf at the end of the run. 

CMC otoh takes a pretty clear cane up through the Yucatan channel then hard turns NE towards the keys. 

ICON takes a major through the channel and is in the SC GoM at h180.

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12Z UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 17.4N  83.6W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 06.11.2024  156  17.4N  83.6W     1005            33
    1200UTC 06.11.2024  168  18.3N  85.5W     1004            32

 

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I have a bit of a random question, and I don't know if this is the right place to ask.  The most recent GFS model got me thinking about this.

Is it theoretically possible for a hurricane to travel down the center of the Gulf of California and impact Arizona/California?  Is the Gulf big enough to support a hurricane?  Clearly a path as such is incredibly unlikely, but still technically possible.

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24 minutes ago, AStorms13 said:

I have a bit of a random question, and I don't know if this is the right place to ask.  The most recent GFS model got me thinking about this.

Is it theoretically possible for a hurricane to travel down the center of the Gulf of California and impact Arizona/California?  Is the Gulf big enough to support a hurricane?  Clearly a path as such is incredibly unlikely, but still technically possible.

It’s theoretically possible but the synoptic pattern to drive a TC NNW through the gulf without impacting land on either side is challenging to achieve.  Odds are less than 1% I’d say. It’s more likely to get a recurving baroclinally enhanced storm hit LA, and even then it wouldn’t be a hurricane

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1. 12Z Ensembles regarding Conus: active with highest % hitting as a TC on CDN (most members), GEFS at 50%, and lowest on Euro (~30%). These are mainly, though not entirely, coming from the W Caribbean. There are also members with hits on the US from TCs that lose TC status before hitting.

2. 12Z UKMET: TCG at hour 96 in W Car that moves WNW into Yucatan:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  96 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.9N  78.4W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 04.11.2024   96  13.9N  78.4W     1004            38
    0000UTC 05.11.2024  108  14.5N  79.0W     1002            38
    1200UTC 05.11.2024  120  15.3N  79.7W     1001            37
    0000UTC 06.11.2024  132  15.9N  81.8W      999            34
    1200UTC 06.11.2024  144  17.0N  83.9W      998            40
    0000UTC 07.11.2024  156  17.8N  86.7W      996            41
    1200UTC 07.11.2024  168  18.3N  89.1W      997            36

————————

Edit:

0Z UKMET: further N with a WNW crossing of the N Yucatan followed by NW turn into Gulf

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  90 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 14.6N  78.5W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 05.11.2024   96  15.2N  78.7W     1003            31
    1200UTC 05.11.2024  108  16.3N  80.3W     1002            30
    0000UTC 06.11.2024  120  17.2N  81.8W     1001            31
    1200UTC 06.11.2024  132  18.6N  83.9W     1000            34
    0000UTC 07.11.2024  144  19.5N  86.3W      999            34
    1200UTC 07.11.2024  156  21.4N  88.9W      999            34
    0000UTC 08.11.2024  168  22.4N  90.9W      997            36
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8PM TWO:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so.  Gradual 
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could 
form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts 
generally northward or northwestward over the central or western 
Caribbean Sea.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are 
possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western 
Caribbean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Northeastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure near Puerto Rico is producing widespread 
cloudiness and showers over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the 
Virgin Islands, the northern Leeward Islands, and the adjacent 
waters of the Atlantic and the northeastern Caribbean.  Slow 
development of this system is possible during the next 2-3 days as 
it moves west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles.  After that 
time, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure 
area over the Caribbean.  Regardless of development, locally heavy 
rains are possible during the next several days from the northern 
Leeward Islands westward across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to 
eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

3. North Atlantic:
A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located about 500 
miles west of the western Azores is producing limited shower 
activity.  Some subtropical development is possible while the low 
moves generally eastward during the next few days.  Additional 
information on this system is available in High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
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