2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Floydbuster]

 

[AccuChris]

Obscene amount of rainfall being shown by the 18z GFS for Florida


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[jbenedet]

Still a very persistent signal for a TC development inside day 5 and having significant impacts on high population areas of west coast of Florida, from Tampa to Fort Myers.

The latest ensemble guidance showing everything from TD intensity to major before weakening.

Very heavy rainfall is the best bet at this stage.

This should be getting a lot more attention than it is currently.

[beanskip]

27 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Still a very persistent signal for a TC development inside day 5 and having significant impacts on high population areas of west coast of Florida, from Tampa to Fort Myers.

The latest ensemble guidance showing everything from TD intensity to major before weakening.

Very heavy rainfall is the best bet at this stage.

This should be getting a lot more attention than it is currently.

Classic example of diminished media (and weather board?) interest because of a lack of crazy wind/mb model runs, but practical impact is off the charts with these potential rain totals. 

[dan11295]

20 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Classic example of diminished media (and weather board?) interest because of a lack of crazy wind/mb model runs, but practical impact is off the charts with these potential rain totals. 

Also have to consider that many people are preoccupied with Helene aftermath/ready to move on from this hurricane season because of it. Plus some of our southeastern posters are dealing with direct impacts of that storm. 

[olafminesaw]

13 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Classic example of diminished media (and weather board?) interest because of a lack of crazy wind/mb model runs, but practical impact is off the charts with these potential rain totals. 

Good point. To what extent has  development made South Florida more vulnerable to freshwater flooding? I feel like I only hear about flash flooding in isolated areas when thunderstorms are training over one area?

[TPAwx]

Rough estimate of 25k homes/properties in the immediate TB with some level of damage or impact, ranging from minor to total loss.  So yes people are preoccupied, and that’s just this region.

Local outlets have been highlighting the tropical watch area and potential rain event, but 5-10 inches of rain over 7 days doesn’t raise an alarm for most people here.  The op and ensembles are still too volatile to capture and dial in attention.

[TPAwx]

Well the 12z GFS op is grabbing my attention, at least until the next model run that loses the TC

[cptcatz]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Good point. To what extent has  development made South Florida more vulnerable to freshwater flooding? I feel like I only hear about flash flooding in isolated areas when thunderstorms are training over one area?

I live in Palm Beach County and have recorded up to 15 inches of rain in two days without any flooding whatsoever in my area. But then you have places around Fort Lauderdale which floods like crazy. The geology is pretty similar (they have shallower limestone further south compared to our sand but that limestone is super permeable so I guess it has to do more with their pavement and lack of runoff options. 

[hawkeye_wx]

The ICON is also becoming more bullish in the gulf over the last few runs.

[jbenedet]

18 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Well the 12z GFS op is grabbing my attention, at least until the next model run that loses the TC

That’s landfall inside day 5 on the GFS. 

Model verification score go way up from here; i.e; we’re going to lose the awful run to run model variability on the global ops today. 

[WxWatcher007]

We’re still paying attention. Will probably throw up a thread with the 2pm outlook unless someone else wants to start it. 

[Seminole]

1 hour ago, TPAwx said:

Rough estimate of 25k homes/properties in the immediate TB with some level of damage or impact, ranging from minor to total loss.  So yes people are preoccupied, and that’s just this region.

Local outlets have been highlighting the tropical watch area and potential rain event, but 5-10 inches of rain over 7 days doesn’t raise an alarm for most people here.  The op and ensembles are still too volatile to capture and dial in attention.

I have a friend in Apollo Beach that had two feet of water in their home. I have another friend in Tarpon Springs that had four feet of water in their home. There are a lot of folks misplaced in that area. 

 

[Normandy]

17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We’re still paying attention. Will probably throw up a thread with the 2pm outlook unless someone else wants to start it. 

Was gonna say it might be time.  Starting to see a semblance of a circulation near the coast in the BOC

[TPAwx]

35 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

That’s landfall inside day 5 on the GFS. 

Model verification score go way up from here; i.e; we’re going to lose the awful run to run model variability on the global ops today. 

True, tho we still have the wide average track error at this stage.  Point taken that the signal is there and the set up could support development.  I'm certainly watching like a hawk.

GEFS still running, most members pointed between St Pete and Ft Myers at this stage.

[purduewx80]

10/50 Gulf and 0/20 AEW. 

[cptcatz]

Euro coming in way stronger

[beanskip]

14 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Euro coming in way stronger

Yeah, almost Cat 2 by landfall near Tampa. No bueno given the surge they just had. 

[TPAwx]

Verbatim the Euro op landfalls south of TB around Sarasota/Siesta Key midday Wednesday.

[andyhb]

Big signal from the 12z EPS members...

[purduewx80]

Hopefully less hot shelf waters behind Helene counteract whatever happens over the loop current. 

[Windspeed]

RE: BOC system. The 12z ECMWF resolves a somewhat more concerning scenario for higher intensity because it keeps the core just far enough south of the shear axis as the system moves E to ENE. It does seem there will be a very fine line on how far north the system tracks versus intensity potential because shear will be very high (30-50+kt 850 to 250 hPa values) over the northern half of the GOM. It's difficult to know how exactly this plays out because even minute changes in proximity of flow above 500 hPa versus TC position will give large outcomes on strength. However, there is obviously increasing potential for a TC impact on the Florida Peninsula, even if it's still far more likely to be a heavy rain event. Should have an invest soon. This is one of those situations when we get an invest labeled, we see large swings in maximum TC intensity output for each 6-hr TC model run as tiny changes in TCG location, track and shear axis resolve huge differences in guidance.

[Hotair]

51 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Big signal from the 12z EPS members...

Nightmare scenario for Tampa Bay.  Imagine navigating the insurance complexities of back to back flooding events combined perhaps with wind damage this time around?  I know someone who wrongfully skipped on flood insurance because of his elevation on the map (zone C) only to see nearly 6 inches of water yesterday in his home because the storm drains were at capacity and the retention pond behind his house kept filling up 

[TPAwx]

Some of the EPS members that track and landfall just north of TB suggest cat 2 or maybe cat 3. That trajectory and strength are concerning for the Bay area but still just scenarios at this point. 

[batmanbrad]

18z GFS so far coming in weaker and further south, typical model back-and-forth continues

[Windspeed]

Looks like there will be an associated PRE with this setup as well before the potential TC reaches the peninsula:

[NavarreDon]

Looks like there will be an associated PRE with this setup as well before the potential TC reaches the peninsula:

Hmmm….sounds familiar!


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[bobbutts]

Not many October historical tracks like the eps there.. Closest I found was Cat 1 Unnamed Oct 24, 1859 to Oct 29, 1859.  Cat 2 Unnamed Oct 08, 1888 to Oct 12, 1888 looks similar too.

Assuming my search is correct there hasn't been a hurricane that originated in the Gulf and struck within 150mi of Sarasota since that storm in 1888.  Not implying any forecast with that tidbit, just find it interesting.

[dizzy9479]

Up to 30/70 at 8 PM.

A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of 
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical or 
subtropical depression or storm is likely to form late this weekend 
or early next week while the system moves eastward or northeastward 
across the Gulf of Mexico.  Interests in the Florida Peninsula and 
the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system.   
Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy 
rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or 
two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle 
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Boston Bulldog]

Code Red, might be time to fire up a thread on this.

Nasty looking PRE setup. Regardless of how strong this system gets, this is a really concerning situation for an already flooded FL Gulf Coast. Good to see the NHC starting to push out some messaging for coastal residents to prepare.