2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Looking likely that there will be two concurrent major hurricanes (Kirk and the next one right on its heels) in the central Atlantic on the first week of October. Pretty logical to have 5x ACE given that situation this time of year. Let's see what happens with this Gulf system though...

 If yesterday’s Euro Weeklies prog of ~30 ACE for 10/7-13 were to verify closely, it would easily be the most active ACE for 10/7-13 since at the very least 1991! Fortunately the bulk is well out to sea.

 Going back to 1991, the highest ACE I could find for Oct 7-13 were these:

-2018’s ~24 due mainly to Leslie and Michael 

-2016’s ~18 due to Matthew and Nicole

Avg ACE for 10/7-13 during 2004-2023 was no more than 6.

[jburns]

 

2 hours ago, NoCORH4L said:

Will Helen be retired? 

It’s Helene.  And yes, almost certainly.

[NoCORH4L]

1 hour ago, jburns said:

 

It’s Helene.  And yes, almost certainly.

Maybe they'll correct it to Helen, since Helene isn't a real name.

[jburns]

1 hour ago, NoCORH4L said:

Maybe they'll correct it to Helen, since Helene isn't a real name.

Here ya go sport. Learn something while you’re here.

Helene Origin and Meaning

The name Helene is a girl's name of French origin meaning "bright, shining one".

Whether it's pronounced with an "een" or an "aine" or an "enn" sound at the end, Helene doesn't feel as current the more forthright Helen or the airier Helena. Helene reached a high of Number 228 in the US in 1916, when ene, ine and een names were all the fashion, and stayed in the Top 500 until 1962, making a final exit in 1970. It still ranks well in its native France, and even more in Norway (#70). Model Heidi Klum's daughter 'Leni' has Helene on her birth certificate.

[MJO812]

[George001]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

2 lows

[madwx]

Looking ahead we have 5 areas to focus on over the next 10 days

 Hurricane Kirk will become a major and recurve throughout the next week. Will be a major ACE producer

91L will become a TD today and will also likely become a major. This will track further south and west than Kirk but should still recurve before the islands 

the GOM area of interest - this still has a good chance to develop but the ceiling is more limited as it’s lifted NE over Florida

The wave after 91L will leave Africa this week, it has a chance to become a storm but expecting an early recurve as well

Finally around mid month it appears we’ll have increased odds of something developing in the western Caribbean 

 

[GaWx]

Yesterday’s Euro Weeklies went even higher than the prior 5.0 times climo for 10/7-13 for ACE. It went to 6.3 climo, which is well into the 30s or more than double peak climo week of 4 weeks earlier! Thankfully, the bulk of this is progged to not threaten people although a Gulf TC is progged. The current highest back to 1991 for that week is ~24 and second highest is ~18. Nowhere close:

-2018’s ~24 due mainly to Leslie and Michael 

-2016’s ~18 due to Matthew and Nicole

 

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

Cool. In that case, we'll call the P storm Pliny the Elder while we're at it.  Just saying, it's kinda annoying and unnecessary, that's all.

 Would y’all please discuss this further in the Helene banter thread? That’s the perfect thread for this subject. Thanks in advance. The Atlantic is quite busy and is expected to continue that way.

[gymengineer]

7 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

Cool. In that case, we'll call the P storm Pliny the Elder while we're at it.  Just saying, it's kinda annoying and unnecessary, that's all.

I still think you are missing the point. Atlantic hurricane names are either English, Spanish, or French, reflecting the people affected by those hurricanes. Helene is a French name. Isaias in 2020 was an example of a Spanish name that many US news broadcasters practiced pronouncing before speaking. 

[Retrobuc]

1 hour ago, madwx said:

 

the GOM area of interest - this still has a good chance to develop but the ceiling is more limited as it’s lifted NE over Florida

 

 

As a Florida resident, interested in the GOM chance.  We avoided any effects from helene, but am not seeing much discussion on here about this next chance.  I'm hoping the lack of discussion is a good thing.

[WxWatcher007]

45 minutes ago, Retrobuc said:

As a Florida resident, interested in the GOM chance.  We avoided any effects from helene, but am not seeing much discussion on here about this next chance.  I'm hoping the lack of discussion is a good thing.

It still looks like a messy signal to me. Surprisingly the GEFS is less robust even though the op model is aggressive from time to time. The Euro/EPS has seemed fairly consistent to me. 

I still think something will develop, but it looks much more broad. The jury is still out on what if anything develops.

 

[GaWx]

51 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It still looks like a messy signal to me. Surprisingly the GEFS is less robust even though the op model is aggressive from time to time. The Euro/EPS has seemed fairly consistent to me. 

I still think something will develop, but it looks much more broad. The jury is still out on what if anything develops.

 

 It would be such a relief if this is going to form and hit the CONUS if it would actually hit as a TS instead of a H as that would be the first of the season as you know. I saw the words “mess” and “broad” used in this forum and elsewhere early on for Helene. Hopefully this time that verifies! Of course, I am not trying to minimize the effects of a TS, especially the rainfall. Hoping it will be moving fast enough to keep that under control.

[cardinalland]

I've been thinking/speculating as to if the recent trend of storms strengthening to landfall has to do with stronger AGW effects near landmasses, as land has seen greater warming than ocean. Also speculating as to if the Atlantic storm increase (over the Pacific) has to do with enhanced warming in the North Atlantic basin due to it being more surrounded by continents than other basins.

[wthrmn654]

At this point if whatever it is hits and comes say where Helene went it won't take much to cause more destruction, especially rain fall at this point imo..

[Floydbuster]

Kirk is now a major hurricane, making it the third major of the season. Once the depression in the Eastern Atlantic gets a name, we will have another named storm and if that becomes a hurricane, we could have 12/8/3 by next week.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

Kirk is now a major hurricane, making it the third major of the season. Once the depression in the Eastern Atlantic gets a name, we will have another named storm and if that becomes a hurricane, we could have 12/8/3 by next week.

That one may have a chance at major status too if it can stay south enough of the behemoth Kirk is likely to become. 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[Floydbuster]

 

[Windspeed]

If Kirk just follows the forecast intensity guidance for the remainder of its life cycle, it should get the Atlantic back to average seasonal ACE numbers, if not put it above. If Leslie can follow its intensity guidance, we should be above average by a good amount; however, unless the rest of October goes crazy, it would be quite a long shot to reach the lofty hyperactive seasonal forecasts from earlier in the year. That's the good news. There is, unfortunately, plenty of season left for something in the Caribbean to form, which obviously would increase a land threat, but hopefully, we can avoid any more devestating landfalls to close out what has been a bad season regardless.

[beanskip]

Hope everybody doesn't ignore the potential Gulf low because of its dwindling chances to become a hurricane. 

Because the models just show it parking in the gulf, the QPF maps are insane.

12z GFS through hour 234 shows over a foot of rain for almost the entire peninsula from I-4 south.

0z CMC had 20 inches confined to southern part, but now shows the 20-inch blob staying offshore.

Anyway, it could all be overdone, but doesn't seem so crazy given that pretty much every models keeps low pressure wandering around in the Gulf for 10 days with a front draped over the peninsula. 

 

 

[Cholorob]

It still looks like a messy signal to me. Surprisingly the GEFS is less robust even though the op model is aggressive from time to time. The Euro/EPS has seemed fairly consistent to me. 
I still think something will develop, but it looks much more broad. The jury is still out on what if anything develops.

 

If I wanted to learn how to read and interpret what these maps showing pressure mean, where would I start?

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, beanskip said:

Hope everybody doesn't ignore the potential Gulf low because of its dwindling chances to become a hurricane. 

Because the models just show it parking in the gulf, the QPF maps are insane.

12z GFS through hour 234 shows over a foot of rain for almost the entire peninsula from I-4 south.

0z CMC had 20 inches confined to southern part, but now shows the 20-inch blob staying offshore.

Anyway, it could all be overdone, but doesn't seem so crazy given that pretty much every models keeps low pressure wandering around in the Gulf for 10 days with a front draped over the peninsula. 

 

 

1 I’m not ignoring it and see no sign of it being ignored. I even posted that even a TS can have major effects, especially very heavy rain

2. Helene was upper end TS strength here and gave us 70% outages. I was out 5 days!

3. In the period when Helene was already forming there was talk here and elsewhere (including by pro met Webb) that she was looking to be messy/broad. So, we’ll see.

[WxWatcher007]

20 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1 I’m not ignoring it and see no sign of it being ignored. I even posted that even a TS can have major effects, especially very heavy rain

2. Helene was upper end TS strength here and gave us 70% outages. I was out 5 days!

3. In the period when Helene was already forming there was talk here and elsewhere (including by pro met Webb) that she was looking to be messy/broad. So, we’ll see.

Yeah—I think we don’t have a thread yet because the signal is still unclear on development and impact, though I think both are trying to come into better focus. I think the genesis potential is a bit higher than the NHC currently has. 

And while pre-Helene discussion also weighed toward a broader/messier system coming out of the CAG, even at the start there was a recognition that higher end solutions were reasonably on the table. We have a very different outcome for many imo if the nascent center of Helene went 50-100 miles west and over the Yucatán. Sometimes that’s just how it goes, as you know.

I’m intrigued that the Euro is more robust than the GFS. 12z maybe gets it to a hurricane. Aside from that it meanders, which means hydro trouble. 

26 minutes ago, Cholorob said:

If I wanted to learn how to read and interpret what these maps showing pressure mean, where would I start?

Probably much more than you asked for, but here’s a good resource.

https://severeweather.wmo.int/TCFW/RAIV_Workshop2019/09a_Ensemble-Prediction-Systems_EricBlake.pdf
 

Now if you’re just wondering what the image above is, it’s all of the separate ensemble member projections for that particular time stamp. Some may not even appear because they may not actually have an actual low formed.

Seeing a lot more EPS members show a low tells me that there’s a stronger signal for something to be there than on the GEFS. Looking closer however, you see that there are very few members at least at that time stamp that are below 1000mb, telling me that there’s a signal for something, but that something appears weak. 

This can be visualized a number of ways. 

If you’re looking for just the mean, that’s not the image I’d use. You would want to use something like this.

 

 

An individual ensemble run can be wrong and often is when it comes to pinning down a specific forecast, but it does a good job of giving you the envelope of reasonable possibilities. Sometimes the op run telegraphs a shift in ensembles. For example, I’d expect the 12z EPS to be a bit more robust given how favorable the environment looked on the 12z Euro.

Hope this helps. 

[Seminole]

1 hour ago, beanskip said:

Hope everybody doesn't ignore the potential Gulf low because of its dwindling chances to become a hurricane. 

Because the models just show it parking in the gulf, the QPF maps are insane.

12z GFS through hour 234 shows over a foot of rain for almost the entire peninsula from I-4 south.

0z CMC had 20 inches confined to southern part, but now shows the 20-inch blob staying offshore.

Anyway, it could all be overdone, but doesn't seem so crazy given that pretty much every models keeps low pressure wandering around in the Gulf for 10 days with a front draped over the peninsula. 

 

 

I hope that is wrong. The last thing many areas in Florida do not need is more rain. 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Unfortunately I think the rainfall signal does look higher end irrespective of what kind of low forms. 

[purduewx80]

1 hour ago, Seminole said:

I hope that is wrong. The last thing many areas in Florida do not need is more rain. 

Agreed, this is not what you want to see with the signal in the ensembles next week. A lot of the water hasn't made it to South FL yet.

[andyhb]

Going to be piling on ACE quite quickly here with both Kirk (already likely a mid-higher end Cat 4) and Leslie (forecast to become a major).

I've also seen some rather concerning intensity estimates from the 18z intensity guidance with the remnants of TD 11 that will become the Gulf low that has been discussed in here, notably from the HAFS. Going to be dependent on whether it can organize its core or not.

[purduewx80]

19 minutes ago, andyhb said:

I've also seen some rather concerning intensity estimates from the 18z intensity guidance with the remnants of TD 11 that will become the Gulf low that has been discussed in here, notably from the HAFS. Going to be dependent on whether it can organize its core or not.

There have been some ensembles showing solutions down into the 950s like that most of the week. Sort of a decrease in them yesterday and uptick on the 12Z EPS/GEFS today. Favorable entrance region dynamics are certainly there a lot of next week to support either some semblance of a PRE and/or a strengthening tropical cyclone. The Gulf is still warm as hell, too.

[cptcatz]

Euro and GFS both now show a solid tropical storm with a high 980s pressure approaching Florida. Would be bad if it brought surge back into Tampa Bay.