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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season


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5 hours ago, Seminole said:

Filled out a missing person report for my son in Ashville, NC. I last heard from him Friday at 1:30 PM. He said he was on the second floor of his home and cut off from everything because of flood water and debris. The situation there is beyond dire. 

So sorry to hear this - sending thoughts and prayers your way.

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5 hours ago, Seminole said:

Filled out a missing person report for my son in Ashville, NC. I last heard from him Friday at 1:30 PM. He said he was on the second floor of his home and cut off from everything because of flood water and debris. The situation there is beyond dire. 

Please keep your phone charged and on ring. Verizon is setting up a temporary cell tower in Asheville today. There is a chance he may be able to get a call to you. Just wanted to ensure you know about it. 

There are no words otherwise. 

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2 minutes ago, DAWGNKITTEN said:

What does ACE maker mean?

Accumulated Cyclone Energy. It's a measure of energy for hurricanes. In this context it adds to overall index for the year (officials keep track of all energy produced by tropical cyclones each season) 

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane2003/August/background_information.html#:~:text=Measuring overall activity%3A The Accumulated,Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index

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9 hours ago, Seminole said:

Filled out a missing person report for my son in Ashville, NC. I last heard from him Friday at 1:30 PM. He said he was on the second floor of his home and cut off from everything because of flood water and debris. The situation there is beyond dire. 

I can't even imagine what you're going through!

Hoping for the best for your son!!

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11 hours ago, Seminole said:

Filled out a missing person report for my son in Ashville, NC. I last heard from him Friday at 1:30 PM. He said he was on the second floor of his home and cut off from everything because of flood water and debris. The situation there is beyond dire. 

I am extremely sorry to hear this! I truly hope that he is OK and just can’t reach out due to the lack of communication issues. Thoughts and prayers are with you and your family. Please keep us updated! 

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11 hours ago, Seminole said:

Filled out a missing person report for my son in Ashville, NC. I last heard from him Friday at 1:30 PM. He said he was on the second floor of his home and cut off from everything because of flood water and debris. The situation there is beyond dire. 

Sending my prayers and hoping for a positive update soon

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Keeping my eye on the wave behind soon-to-be Kirk. It would be unprecedented to have a storm form in the East MDR and make it to the islands in October, but the ICON and EC-AI have been showing that as a possible scenario. The future storm is kept locked under a potent ridge that builds just slightly ahead of the disturbance as Kirk moves North. Hard not to buy the early recurve solution but this has been a season of odd behavior.

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3 minutes ago, Seminole said:

UPDATE: Good news! My son contacted my this morning and said he is safe. He had to use someone else's phone that had service. Communication is spotty at best in that area. He has a weeks worth of food and water and knows to ration it. He said the most annoying thing is not being able to flush. He thanked me for raising him a Floridian because he was well prepped for the storm. Thank you everyone here for the kind words, thoughts and prayers.  

Fantastic News! 

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30 minutes ago, Seminole said:

UPDATE: Good news! My son contacted my this morning and said he is safe. He had to use someone else's phone that had service. Communication is spotty at best in that area. He has a weeks worth of food and water and knows to ration it. He said the most annoying thing is not being able to flush. He thanked me for raising him a Floridian because he was well prepped for the storm. Thank you everyone here for the kind words, thoughts and prayers.  

Phew Praise God! I am so glad to hear he's safe. Mercy what a storm...continued prayers for those still missing and their families.

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38 minutes ago, Seminole said:

UPDATE: Good news! My son contacted my this morning and said he is safe. He had to use someone else's phone that had service. Communication is spotty at best in that area. He has a weeks worth of food and water and knows to ration it. He said the most annoying thing is not being able to flush. He thanked me for raising him a Floridian because he was well prepped for the storm. Thank you everyone here for the kind words, thoughts and prayers.  

Made my week. I’m so happy to hear this. Prayers for everyone waiting to hear from their loved ones. 

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1 hour ago, Seminole said:

He said the most annoying thing is not being able to flush. 

Find a container or bucket. Surely there is standing water somewhere and use it to flush the toilet. Dirty water for sure but I’ll bet it smells better than what is in there now.

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2 hours ago, Seminole said:

UPDATE: Good news! My son contacted my this morning and said he is safe. He had to use someone else's phone that had service. Communication is spotty at best in that area. He has a weeks worth of food and water and knows to ration it. He said the most annoying thing is not being able to flush. He thanked me for raising him a Floridian because he was well prepped for the storm. Thank you everyone here for the kind words, thoughts and prayers.  

We need a "love" emoji - so happy to hear this!

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UPDATE: Good news! My son contacted my this morning and said he is safe. He had to use someone else's phone that had service. Communication is spotty at best in that area. He has a weeks worth of food and water and knows to ration it. He said the most annoying thing is not being able to flush. He thanked me for raising him a Floridian because he was well prepped for the storm. Thank you everyone here for the kind words, thoughts and prayers.  

So Happy to hear this man, his journey through is just beginning but at least he is around to have it. Great news.


.
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55 minutes ago, Jebman said:

All these bad hurricanes are all my fault. I jinxed everything when I foolishly declared the hurricane season was gonna be mild with a few small hurricanes.

Find something else to spend your free time on, please!

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Holy Moses, check out the most recent Euro Weeklies mean prog for ACE for 10/7-13: way off the charts (5 times the 2004-23 mean for that week)! This is ~30, which is nearly double the mean for the peak week 4 weeks earlier and is by far the highest prog for any run this season for any week to date!

IMG_0374.png.6c5cbfe625a865787c0908727c184bc7.png
 

Fortunately, the bulk of this very high ACE looks to be well out into the open Atlantic though not all of it as that potential Gulf low will need to watched:

IMG_0375.png.88512d00c0ef698d9a7cc6b8d2c82919.png

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1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Holy Moses, check out the most recent Euro Weeklies mean prog for ACE for 10/7-13: way off the charts (5 times the 2004-23 mean for that week)! This is ~30, which is nearly double the mean for the peak week 4 weeks earlier and is by far the highest prog for any run this season for any week to date!

IMG_0374.png.6c5cbfe625a865787c0908727c184bc7.png
 

Fortunately, the bulk of this very high ACE looks to be well out into the open Atlantic though not all of it as that potential Gulf low will need to watched:

IMG_0375.png.88512d00c0ef698d9a7cc6b8d2c82919.png

It really does look like a delayed peak, and maybe one that’s higher end with CV season heating up? 

Although weaker, the genesis signal in the Gulf still looks pretty robust. Definitely worth watching. I’m still way off my peak season forecast but some of each category will be added to the board soon. 

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 15 (6)
Hurricanes: 10 (3)
Major Hurricanes: 5 (1)

Francine (H), Gordon, Helene (MH), Isaac (H), Joyce, Kirk

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1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Holy Moses, check out the most recent Euro Weeklies mean prog for ACE for 10/7-13: way off the charts (5 times the 2004-23 mean for that week)! This is ~30, which is nearly double the mean for the peak week 4 weeks earlier and is by far the highest prog for any run this season for any week to date!

Fortunately, the bulk of this very high ACE looks to be well out into the open Atlantic though not all of it as that potential Gulf low will need to watched:

It probably has a lot to do with Kirk.. although the projection is 8+ days.  It's interesting that it's that strong, being based on '04-23 norms!

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20 hours ago, Seminole said:

UPDATE: Good news! My son contacted my this morning and said he is safe. He had to use someone else's phone that had service. Communication is spotty at best in that area. He has a weeks worth of food and water and knows to ration it. He said the most annoying thing is not being able to flush. He thanked me for raising him a Floridian because he was well prepped for the storm. Thank you everyone here for the kind words, thoughts and prayers.  

This is wonderful news.

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10 hours ago, GaWx said:

Holy Moses, check out the most recent Euro Weeklies mean prog for ACE for 10/7-13: way off the charts (5 times the 2004-23 mean for that week)! This is ~30, which is nearly double the mean for the peak week 4 weeks earlier and is by far the highest prog for any run this season for any week to date!

IMG_0374.png.6c5cbfe625a865787c0908727c184bc7.png
 

Fortunately, the bulk of this very high ACE looks to be well out into the open Atlantic though not all of it as that potential Gulf low will need to watched:

IMG_0375.png.88512d00c0ef698d9a7cc6b8d2c82919.png

Looking likely that there will be two concurrent major hurricanes (Kirk and the next one right on its heels) in the central Atlantic on the first week of October. Pretty logical to have 5x ACE given that situation this time of year. Let's see what happens with this Gulf system though...

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