WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said: Anyone see that sneaky system in the northern Atlantic with 40%chance of formation? Also 2nd formation coming off of Africa. Pre-Helene tracking that was an area I identified as having a shot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 This one is already getting an eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Tropical Storm Isaac. First forecast has it peak near hurricane strength. Basin finally lighting up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Tropical Storm Isaac. First forecast has it peak near hurricane strength. Basin finally lighting up. Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2024 The non-tropical area of low pressure we have been monitoring to the northeast of Bermuda over the last day or so has become significantly better organized today, with deep central convection forming and now wrapping around a small surface circulation. While the system had previously been attached to an occluded frontal boundary to its northwest, recently received scatterometer data now shows that the circulation has fully detached form this boundary, and is producing winds of 40-45 kt in a small circular area embedded within the organizing convection. These structural changes indicate the the system has undergone and has completed tropical transition. Thus, the system is now being designated Tropical Storm Isaac this advisory, and the initial intensity is set to 45 kt based on the earlier scatterometer data. Isaac is moving just north of due east at 85/10 kt. This motion should continue with a gentle turn more east-northeastward over the next several days as the system is steered primarily by mid-level ridging present to its south. However, there does not appear to be a mid-latitude trough early on to help the storm to accelerate much over the next few days. The initial NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the simple and corrected consensus aids TCVN and HCCA. While Isaac is traversing only marginally warm waters, it is also still embedded within the base of an upper-level trough which has reduced tropospheric stability due to colder upper-level temperatures. This is partially why Isaac has been able to develop organized deep convection this evening. The shear is not anticipated to increase much over the next couple of days, which could allow for some gradual intensification. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement the with HCCA and ECMWF forecasts and shows a peak intensity of 60 kt in 48 h, followed by gradual weakening after 72 h as sea-surface temperatures cool further and shear begins to increase more markedly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 37.1N 54.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 37.1N 52.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 37.3N 49.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 37.9N 46.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 38.8N 43.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 40.1N 39.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 41.4N 35.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 42.7N 29.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 42.5N 21.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Papin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Isaac looks like a hurricane this morning. Clearing out an eye. These mid latitude storms are always interesting to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 As long as it stays in the middle of the ocean bothering no one but the fish and maybe shipping interest let it roll up all of the ACE numbers that it wants. Same goes for the wave coming off of Africa 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2nd sneaky tropical situation? What's that feature on the heels of Helene? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Safe to assume that development in the central ATL won’t get anywhere near the US? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said: 2nd sneaky tropical situation? What's that feature on the heels of Helene? CAG signal continues into early October. Expect another Gulf system… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said: Safe to assume that development in the central ATL won’t get anywhere near the US? Very safe assumption. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 I wonder if Helene's quick forward speed will limit cold upwelling waters in the Gulf in case another storm moves in on its heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2 hours ago, wthrmn654 said: 2nd sneaky tropical situation? What's that feature on the heels of Helene? This tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is likely the seed, or will at least merge into the CAG and enhance cyclogenesis by early next week. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 9 minutes ago, Chicago916 said: I wonder if Helene's quick forward speed will limit cold upwelling waters in the Gulf in case another storm moves in on its heels. That will be counteracted by its huge wind field. The Bay of Campeche will stay much warmer, and if the latest models and ensembles are right, it could meander for a bit, allowing the Gulf to heat back up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, purduewx80 said: This tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is likely the seed, or will at least merge into the CAG and enhance cyclogenesis by early next week. Busy times ahead for all you mets! We thank you all for all the schooling and learned knowledge as well as being patient with us average humans of the USA lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 I'm supposed to be in Florida on vacation from Oct 1 to Oct 7. Watching what's potentially on the heels of Helene closely... Currently running GFS has a hurricane stalling west of FL and then slamming into Venice, FL. Thankfully, this is 10 days out, but the signal is there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Isaac just popped an eye. Hurricane at 5am most likely. These mid-latitude systems always have great structure 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 6 hours ago, Boston Bulldog said: Isaac just popped an eye. Hurricane at 5am most likely. These mid-latitude systems always have great structure Confirmed... 75mph at 5am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 That 0z GFS run was absolutely wild for the New Orleans area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wormy2005 Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 Not another one 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 Definitely some potential brewing in the gulf. Not what anyone wants to hear but pretty solid signal for development at this point. Cannot even imagine another system on the heels of Helene’s devastation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 Too many competing areas of convergence (CAG, tail end of a front and the central Caribbean wave), so not only do we have questions about where cyclogenesis occurs, but the pattern over North America is totally out of phase between many of the ensemble clusters. One area of important consistency is the -NAO/Greenland Block, which of course impacted the pattern leading up the Helene. That would place the onus on the more uncertain Pacific. Saturday below, with the first image showing the four clusters, their anomaly from the ensemble mean and the multi-model ensemble; the second showing where the uncertainty is with ridging in the Pacific: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 The predecessor rain event showing up in the 12Z GFS does show up on some other guidance, but with different placement, timing and intensity. It could be a classic setup for it with the blocked pattern, reinforced front and lower confidence potential in upper jet support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Definitely some potential brewing in the gulf. Not what anyone wants to hear but pretty solid signal for development at this point. Cannot even imagine another system on the heels of Helene’s devastation This was the potential of this season and now we are here. And nobody wants to say it or believe it but this next one will be strong as fuck too. Hopefully it stays small in size at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 12z GFS not only brings a 958 mb hurricane into the Gulf coast, but probably even more devastating is that it brings the peak rain into the western Carolinas. Shows a tropical storm forming in only 72 hours from now, as well as another monster major fish storm in the central Atlantic. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 Season cap is off. Now everything wants to develop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 The Euro has a storm in the gulf, but there is strong shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said: The Euro has a storm in the gulf, but there is strong shear euro was so bad with intensity with helene.... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 models were showing sheer with helene as it approached the coast that did not happen at all 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 Yep, just did a little case study. Helene mad landfall the night of 9/26 at a pressure of 938 mb. Let's see what the Euro models showed at landfall: 9/21 12z: 991 mb 9/22 00z: 989 mb 9/22 12z: 981 mb 9/23 00z: 982 mb 9/23 12z: 983 mb 9/24 00z: 984 mb 9/24 12z: 978 mb 9/25 00z: 959 mb Euro really didn't catch on to this being a strong hurricane until the day before it made landfall. The fact that the super bearish Euro model is showing a 998 mb storm in the Gulf 9 days out right now should definitely tell you to keep your eye on this one. Especially with GFS showing the same system at 958 mb. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 5 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Yep, just did a little case study. Helene mad landfall the night of 9/26 at a pressure of 938 mb. Let's see what the Euro models showed at landfall: 9/21 12z: 991 mb 9/22 00z: 989 mb 9/22 12z: 981 mb 9/23 00z: 982 mb 9/23 12z: 983 mb 9/24 00z: 984 mb 9/24 12z: 978 mb 9/25 00z: 959 mb Euro really didn't catch on to this being a strong hurricane until the day before it made landfall. The fact that the super bearish Euro model is showing a 998 mb storm in the Gulf 9 days out right now should definitely tell you to keep your eye on this one. Especially with GFS showing the same system at 958 mb. gfs has more credibility then the euro with the way it performed with helene.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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