2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[WxWatcher007]

Ensembles. You treat the operational runs as extensions of ensembles at this stage imo—just one solution in the greater whole. 

It’s always a good idea before looking at the specific outcomes of these runs to take a step back and analyze the steering and development/intensification environment first. 

[tiger_deF]

Ironic that right as everyone is becoming bearish there’s finally something to actually look at. This seems a step beyond what many models had in terms of convective activity for today

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Ironic that right as everyone is becoming bearish there’s finally something to actually look at. This seems a step beyond what many models had in terms of convective activity for today

For comparison, this is the 6Z GFS IR simulation as of 9AM EDT:

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

5 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Ironic that right as everyone is becoming bearish there’s finally something to actually look at. This seems a step beyond what many models had in terms of convective activity for today

 

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

For comparison, this is the 6Z GFS IR simulation as of 9AM EDT:

Bearish isn't the way to go tbh

[GaWx]

 12Z ICON: major change in track vs prior runs! Instead of going into the W Gulf, it never goes W of 89W and landfalls (at ~997 mb) at Panama City, FL, at hour 159 on Thu night.

[olafminesaw]

Until an LLC forms, I would say Climo is our best predictor of track. Aligns well with model consensus anyway 

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Until an LLC forms, I would say Climo is our best predictor of track. Aligns well with model consensus anyway 

Accuweather is looking at all Sept NW Caribbean storms to make this map. If a climo map is going to be used, I’d prefer to use the NHC image below, which is just climo for storms originating Sept 21-30, when NW Caribbean storms tend to recurve more sharply and threaten FL peninsula more often than is the case for Sept as a whole. Also, TX is hit even less than the 14% shown with only one landfall:

[olafminesaw]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Accuweather is looking at all Sept NW Caribbean storms to make this map. If a climo map is going to be used, I’d prefer to use the NHC image below, which is just climo for storms originating Sept 21-30, when NW Caribbean storms tend to recurve more sharply and threaten FL peninsula more often than is the case for Sept as a whole. Also, TX is hit even less than the 14% shown with only one landfall:

Thanks! This makes sense, early in the month the SE ridge is more likely to have influence. On models there seems to be a persistent trough off the east coast that is likely to pull the system more to the right.

[yoda]

12z CMC sure is taking its sweet time in the W GOM from Day 5 on... finally makes landfall in W LA day 9

[yoda]

12z GFS looks like it's going into W FL Panhandle at 162...  but instead turned NW into Biloxi at 192

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET: TCG is a little earlier than the prior two runs as it is Wednesday evening in NW Caribbean; it moves slowly N and then NW into south-central Gulf Fri morning (end of run) with it then at 997 mb and strengthening:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 19.7N  86.5W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 26.09.2024  132  19.7N  86.5W     1002            32
    1200UTC 26.09.2024  144  21.1N  86.5W     1001            43
    0000UTC 27.09.2024  156  21.7N  88.2W     1000            35
    1200UTC 27.09.2024  168  23.4N  89.3W      997            40

 

[Ji]

I need some help. Have a friend going to Cozumel area next week for vacation. Models looks pretty dicey in terms of rain next week especially after Wednesday. She wants to know if she should cancel but I don’t have enough expertise in that area to give her a solid answer but looking at models it dosent look great lol

[smokeybandit]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

I need some help. Have a friend going to Cozumel area next week for vacation. Models looks pretty dicey in terms of rain next week especially after Wednesday. She wants to know if she should cancel but I don’t have enough expertise in that area to give her a solid answer but looking at models it dosent look great lol

A rainy vacation is still better than a nice day at work.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

I need some help. Have a friend going to Cozumel area next week for vacation. Models looks pretty dicey in terms of rain next week especially after Wednesday. She wants to know if she should cancel but I don’t have enough expertise in that area to give her a solid answer but looking at models it dosent look great lol

too early to say whether it will have much of an impact or not

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

 

[tiger_deF]

18z GFS is all over the place, but one thing it does have is signal. This may be the largest percentage of developing members we’ve seen for the AOI yet. We might not get much from this system but it sure isn’t being dropped

[GaWx]

0Z:

Euro: E of 12Z, which had hit Mobile 9/29 at 989; 0Z hits Apalachicola 9/29 at 984 mb

GFS: just SE of Panama City late 9/27 at 979

CMC: E LA 9/27 981

ICON: C Gulf moving N 965 9/28

UK: 200 miles SSE of LA/TX border 1000 mb moving NNW late 9/27

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

15 hours ago, GaWx said:

0Z:

Euro: E of 12Z, which had hit Mobile 9/29 at 989; 0Z hits Apalachicola 9/29 at 984 mb

GFS: just SE of Panama City late 9/27 at 979

CMC: E LA 9/27 981

ICON: C Gulf moving N 965 9/28

UK: 200 miles SSE of LA/TX border 1000 mb moving NNW late 9/27

 

next major will be called Humberto at this rate 

[WxWatcher007]

Not sure how 96L isn’t classified. 

[purduewx80]

30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not sure how 96L isn’t classified. 

That convective burst is impressive. Winds aren’t too supportive quite yet. 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

October looks like it may simply be a delayed September peak, and ensembles are going nuts right now and the GFS is definitely smelling the favorable MJO coming in.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

https://i.imgur.com/5BRjzFy.mp4

 

Long-range GFS

[CheeselandSkies]

3 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

October looks like it may simply be a delayed September peak, and ensembles are going nuts right now and the GFS is definitely smelling the favorable MJO coming in.

Stop copy/pasting what other people post on Storm2K.

 

[cptcatz]

Hour 384 of this morning's GFS make October 9 look more like September 9. MDR season is definitely not over yet. 

[purduewx80]

Some good tidbits in today’s CPC MJO discussion:

[cptcatz]

Might be getting ahead of myself here but after Helene, it looks like the next threat may be the MDR storm which will come off Africa this weekend. There's a strong signal across all models for a low rider that looks like could make it to the caribbean and could be strong. Euro here:

[purduewx80]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

Might be getting ahead of myself here but after Helene, it looks like the next threat may be the MDR storm which will come off Africa this weekend. There's a strong signal across all models for a low rider that looks like could make it to the caribbean and could be strong. Euro here:

Its ensembles are all over it, but the GFS and Canadian suite is a bit less clear.

I'm also watching this wave about to enter the Caribbean. It'll initially be sheared by Helene but may encounter more favorable conditions as it interacts with the CAG early next week. Not as much model support for anything intense, but its worth tracking.

 

[GaWx]

 The latest Euro Weeklies mean went absolutely bonkers for the week of 10/7-13. It has a whopping 340% of 2004-2023 averaged ACE or ~23! (see top image below). This is well over peak week climo of 16, which is 4 weeks earlier! This is easily the single highest week I could recall for any single week of Euro Weeklies for the season to date! The 2nd image shows where the bulk of the activity is expected: Gulf, N Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the W and C subtropical Atlantic. 
 

 Going back to 1991, I could find only two seasons with ACE anywhere close to 23 during Oct 7-13:

-2018’s ~24 due mainly to Leslie and Michael 

-2016’s ~18 due to Matthew and Nicole

 So, the latest Weeklies are calling for Oct 7-13 to be just about tied with 2018 for the most active since 1991. That’s very notable for a 100 member ensemble mean. 

 In addition the run’s mean for the week prior, 9/30-10/6 is at 180% of 20 year climo or 17. So, after Helene and the E MDR get ACE up to ~75, an additional 40 is progged for the subsequent two weeks. That would bring ACE up to ~115 with the last half of Oct and Nov still left. The same run is progging another 15 for 10/14-27, which would get it to 130. If this were to verify closely, a 150ish total season ACE would not be far fetched considering the warmth of the Atlantic and the strengthening Niña.

 

[Normandy]

Indeed brother.  Everybody buckle up because October is about to be wild.  GFS has the Caribbean cranking