tiger_deF Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 Ironic that right as everyone is becoming bearish there’s finally something to actually look at. This seems a step beyond what many models had in terms of convective activity for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 3 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: Ironic that right as everyone is becoming bearish there’s finally something to actually look at. This seems a step beyond what many models had in terms of convective activity for today For comparison, this is the 6Z GFS IR simulation as of 9AM EDT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 5 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: Ironic that right as everyone is becoming bearish there’s finally something to actually look at. This seems a step beyond what many models had in terms of convective activity for today 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: For comparison, this is the 6Z GFS IR simulation as of 9AM EDT: Bearish isn't the way to go tbh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 12Z ICON: major change in track vs prior runs! Instead of going into the W Gulf, it never goes W of 89W and landfalls (at ~997 mb) at Panama City, FL, at hour 159 on Thu night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 Until an LLC forms, I would say Climo is our best predictor of track. Aligns well with model consensus anyway 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Until an LLC forms, I would say Climo is our best predictor of track. Aligns well with model consensus anyway Accuweather is looking at all Sept NW Caribbean storms to make this map. If a climo map is going to be used, I’d prefer to use the NHC image below, which is just climo for storms originating Sept 21-30, when NW Caribbean storms tend to recurve more sharply and threaten FL peninsula more often than is the case for Sept as a whole. Also, TX is hit even less than the 14% shown with only one landfall: 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 14 minutes ago, GaWx said: Accuweather is looking at all Sept NW Caribbean storms to make this map. If a climo map is going to be used, I’d prefer to use the NHC image below, which is just climo for storms originating Sept 21-30, when NW Caribbean storms tend to recurve more sharply and threaten FL peninsula more often than is the case for Sept as a whole. Also, TX is hit even less than the 14% shown with only one landfall: Thanks! This makes sense, early in the month the SE ridge is more likely to have influence. On models there seems to be a persistent trough off the east coast that is likely to pull the system more to the right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 12z CMC sure is taking its sweet time in the W GOM from Day 5 on... finally makes landfall in W LA day 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 12z GFS looks like it's going into W FL Panhandle at 162... but instead turned NW into Biloxi at 192 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 12Z UKMET: TCG is a little earlier than the prior two runs as it is Wednesday evening in NW Caribbean; it moves slowly N and then NW into south-central Gulf Fri morning (end of run) with it then at 997 mb and strengthening: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 19.7N 86.5W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 26.09.2024 132 19.7N 86.5W 1002 32 1200UTC 26.09.2024 144 21.1N 86.5W 1001 43 0000UTC 27.09.2024 156 21.7N 88.2W 1000 35 1200UTC 27.09.2024 168 23.4N 89.3W 997 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 I need some help. Have a friend going to Cozumel area next week for vacation. Models looks pretty dicey in terms of rain next week especially after Wednesday. She wants to know if she should cancel but I don’t have enough expertise in that area to give her a solid answer but looking at models it dosent look great lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 1 hour ago, Ji said: I need some help. Have a friend going to Cozumel area next week for vacation. Models looks pretty dicey in terms of rain next week especially after Wednesday. She wants to know if she should cancel but I don’t have enough expertise in that area to give her a solid answer but looking at models it dosent look great lol A rainy vacation is still better than a nice day at work. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 2 hours ago, Ji said: I need some help. Have a friend going to Cozumel area next week for vacation. Models looks pretty dicey in terms of rain next week especially after Wednesday. She wants to know if she should cancel but I don’t have enough expertise in that area to give her a solid answer but looking at models it dosent look great lol too early to say whether it will have much of an impact or not 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 18z GFS is all over the place, but one thing it does have is signal. This may be the largest percentage of developing members we’ve seen for the AOI yet. We might not get much from this system but it sure isn’t being dropped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 0Z: Euro: E of 12Z, which had hit Mobile 9/29 at 989; 0Z hits Apalachicola 9/29 at 984 mb GFS: just SE of Panama City late 9/27 at 979 CMC: E LA 9/27 981 ICON: C Gulf moving N 965 9/28 UK: 200 miles SSE of LA/TX border 1000 mb moving NNW late 9/27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 15 hours ago, GaWx said: 0Z: Euro: E of 12Z, which had hit Mobile 9/29 at 989; 0Z hits Apalachicola 9/29 at 984 mb GFS: just SE of Panama City late 9/27 at 979 CMC: E LA 9/27 981 ICON: C Gulf moving N 965 9/28 UK: 200 miles SSE of LA/TX border 1000 mb moving NNW late 9/27 next major will be called Humberto at this rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 Not sure how 96L isn’t classified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Not sure how 96L isn’t classified. That convective burst is impressive. Winds aren’t too supportive quite yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 October looks like it may simply be a delayed September peak, and ensembles are going nuts right now and the GFS is definitely smelling the favorable MJO coming in. 1 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 https://i.imgur.com/5BRjzFy.mp4 Long-range GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 3 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: October looks like it may simply be a delayed September peak, and ensembles are going nuts right now and the GFS is definitely smelling the favorable MJO coming in. Stop copy/pasting what other people post on Storm2K. 5 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 Hour 384 of this morning's GFS make October 9 look more like September 9. MDR season is definitely not over yet. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 Some good tidbits in today’s CPC MJO discussion: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Might be getting ahead of myself here but after Helene, it looks like the next threat may be the MDR storm which will come off Africa this weekend. There's a strong signal across all models for a low rider that looks like could make it to the caribbean and could be strong. Euro here: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: Might be getting ahead of myself here but after Helene, it looks like the next threat may be the MDR storm which will come off Africa this weekend. There's a strong signal across all models for a low rider that looks like could make it to the caribbean and could be strong. Euro here: Its ensembles are all over it, but the GFS and Canadian suite is a bit less clear. I'm also watching this wave about to enter the Caribbean. It'll initially be sheared by Helene but may encounter more favorable conditions as it interacts with the CAG early next week. Not as much model support for anything intense, but its worth tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 The latest Euro Weeklies mean went absolutely bonkers for the week of 10/7-13. It has a whopping 340% of 2004-2023 averaged ACE or ~23! (see top image below). This is well over peak week climo of 16, which is 4 weeks earlier! This is easily the single highest week I could recall for any single week of Euro Weeklies for the season to date! The 2nd image shows where the bulk of the activity is expected: Gulf, N Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the W and C subtropical Atlantic. Going back to 1991, I could find only two seasons with ACE anywhere close to 23 during Oct 7-13: -2018’s ~24 due mainly to Leslie and Michael -2016’s ~18 due to Matthew and Nicole So, the latest Weeklies are calling for Oct 7-13 to be just about tied with 2018 for the most active since 1991. That’s very notable for a 100 member ensemble mean. In addition the run’s mean for the week prior, 9/30-10/6 is at 180% of 20 year climo or 17. So, after Helene and the E MDR get ACE up to ~75, an additional 40 is progged for the subsequent two weeks. That would bring ACE up to ~115 with the last half of Oct and Nov still left. The same run is progging another 15 for 10/14-27, which would get it to 130. If this were to verify closely, a 150ish total season ACE would not be far fetched considering the warmth of the Atlantic and the strengthening Niña. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 Indeed brother. Everybody buckle up because October is about to be wild. GFS has the Caribbean cranking 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Anyone see that sneaky system in the northern Atlantic with 40%chance of formation? Also 2nd formation coming off of Africa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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