2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[WxWatcher007]

53 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Other than the Gulf/Caribbean in the immediate future, I think that the most interesting AEW isn’t even in your list: one not coming off Africa til ~9/10. Looking at ensembles/ops, that’s the one leading to these operational (GFS/Euro/ICON/CMC) E MDR TCs. I don’t recall seeing one that active right off Africa on ensembles/operationals in at least quite awhile. And note that this is coming off Africa at about the same latitude as recent ones. Not further south. And yet it still may turn into something.

 Looking back at history for AEWs that developed in the E Atlantic near or just after Sept 10th, these were 3 of the worst.
-Hugo (1989)
-Gloria (1985)
-Long Island Express (1938)

 I’m by no means saying a track anything like that would likely occur as many that develop early also recurve early. Rather I am saying that 9/10 still isn’t at all too late for a long-tracked CV storm, especially with cold neutral/weak Niña. Hope not but that’s a fact.

That’s what I meant by the longer range wave, but it’s hard for me to be bullish on anything in the eastern MDR given the stability issues. The signal for genesis is there though and we’re talking closer to mid month when conditions are progged to be more favorable. 
 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024090518/gfs_z850_vort_atl_37.png

The GFS plays with something spinning out of the MT but very low odds 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024090518/gfs_z850_vort_atl_19.png

[Floydbuster]

GFS continues to show a wave leaving Africa in about 3 days or so, becoming a violent Luis type hurricane strike on the Leeward or Virgin Islands. Starting to gain my interest.

[NorthHillsWx]

I’d say the models are starting to wake up

[NorthHillsWx]

All 5 of our areas of interest appear to have failed lol. Only chance is the BOC system currently going over the Yucatán. Even that looks to face a hostile upper level environment once over water though there is some support from models for a weak system. 

[Seminole]

8 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

GFS continues to show a wave leaving Africa in about 3 days or so, becoming a violent Luis type hurricane strike on the Leeward or Virgin Islands. Starting to gain my interest.

The 6Z run has multiple instances of waves that just fluctuate across the Atlantic basin until one finally gets its act together east of the lesser Antilles around the 15th. Who knows? 

[WxWatcher007]

30 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

All 5 of our areas of interest appear to have failed lol. Only chance is the BOC system currently going over the Yucatán. Even that looks to face a hostile upper level environment once over water though there is some support from models for a weak system. 

Pretty wild 

[FredRed]

I've developed several websites through conversations with Claude Sonnet, without writing a single line of code myself. It's fascinating to think that someone like me, with no coding experience, can create functional websites just by communicating with an AI in plain English. I'm curious to hear your thoughts on these sites - do you find them useful? Are there any additional features you think I should incorporate? We're truly living in a remarkable era where AI is making web development accessible to everyone.

https://atcf-model-error-viewer.replit.app/
https://atcf-model-track-viewer.replit.app/

[salbers]

It's a good website though for some reason Microsoft Teams flags it as a security risk. Perhaps Claude can help in tightening this up?

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS is screaming a hurricane Nicholas redux with the BOC wave/trough interaction 

[Kevin Reilly]

17 minutes ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said:

GFS you crazy SOB

 

Hour 330 yea it's happening!!!  I thought the 965 into Cape Hatteras then to Central PA 967 mb was pretty tuff too. 

[RU848789]

Been awhile since we've seen some actual threats...

[Windspeed]

While much of the focus is on 91L/GOM system potential, as it should be, it may be time to start looking out into the MDR again. A disturbance has been designated 92L and is forecast to develop with good modeling support. As such, no surprise that the environmental state in the central MDR where this invest is located has improved significantly since the abnormally long interseasonal quiet period. 500 mb ridging across the north Atlantic is forecast to strengthen into the midrange, which should turn a hypothetical TC into an easterly steering layer. Can't rule out the NE Leewards, so we'll need to keep tabs on this system. Later into the long-range, there are too many unknowns for CONUS consideration. However, in the least, chances favor the development of a long-tracking MDR TC here and a potential ACE machine.

[WxWatcher007]

Just quickly, my areas of interest: 

1. BoC low/Invest 91L—80%

Looks most likely to break our NS drought. Like I said before, it’s hard to bet against the BoC topography, though I’m not sure we’d have this area as likely to pop without old 90L and the boundary assisting what was an anemic wave. Western Gulf should watch closely. 
 

2. Invest 92L—50%

I won’t lie. I’m still nervous that this next iteration of the MT breakdown will fail to immediately produce, but like Windspeed said the tropical Atlantic portion of the MDR is looking substantially better than it did even a week ago. The apparent organization tonight gives me a little more confidence something is developing here. 
 

3. MT Part II—40%

This is the eastern end of the trough that will take more time to organize, if at all. A future AEW coming off Africa may help give the area the kick it needs to develop. Models are waffling on which part of the MT develops first, but it looks like 92L is in the lead. This is the easternmost NHC orange. 
 

4. SE Coast—20%

There’s still a signal late next week for a low to develop along a stalled boundary, and this may factor in the eventual track of 92L. What has my interest here is 1) the further south potential for development in a more tropical genesis favored zone, and 2) the possibility of a ridge developing over the top, potentially cutting off a quick exit. Two things 99L didn’t have. Long way away so not worth much attention. 
 

I’m not going to declare anything until it happens, but I do wonder if the lid is starting to come off…from west to east.

[ldub23]

Just  like that the GFS drops everything

[Seminole]

3 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Just  like that the GFS drops everything

except 91L.

[ldub23]

3 hours ago, Seminole said:

except 91L.

Yes, but a separate thread for that

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

45 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Yes, but a separate thread for that

I’m sure you’re extra excited about the hyper active season fail. From a purely “we have allot to learn” standpoint so am I. 

[Jebman]

So happy the developing TC will LF in far east Tex. We have sure had it easy so far, in Austin. This is really not that bad of a hurricane season after all.

Remember last year when the Nino was not Nino'ing properly?

Well this year the Nina is not Nina'ing properly, either. Thats really good news for the southeastern and Gulf Coasts.

We are gonna get off super easy this fall.

We can turn off the ear shredding Klaxons and flashing red lights, now.

[Chargers09]

3 minutes ago, Jebman said:

So happy the developing TC will LF in far east Tex. We have sure had it easy so far, in Austin. This is really not that bad of a hurricane season after all.

Remember last year when the Nino was not Nino'ing properly?

Well this year the Nina is not Nina'ing properly, either. Thats really good news for the southeastern and Gulf Coasts.

We are gonna get off super easy this fall.

We can turn off the ear shredding Klaxons and flashing red lights, now.

Way too early for this 

[Jebman]

I always hope for the best. Probably just wishful thinking, but who knows?

Hardly any hurricanes, but plenty snow for the Mid Atlantic.

[cptcatz]

Assuming that the PT6 forecast verifies and it makes it to hurricane, we'd be sitting at 6/4/1 with all 6 storms making landfall. While the numbers are low, the impacts are impressive. It's looking like the next MDR storm could break that streak but I think it's too early for that. History buffs: anyone know the longest streak of named storms to make landfall (to start the season or otherwise)?

[StantonParkHoya]

48 minutes ago, Jebman said:

So happy the developing TC will LF in far east Tex. We have sure had it easy so far, in Austin. This is really not that bad of a hurricane season after all.

Remember last year when the Nino was not Nino'ing properly?

Well this year the Nina is not Nina'ing properly, either. Thats really good news for the southeastern and Gulf Coasts.

We are gonna get off super easy this fall.

We can turn off the ear shredding Klaxons and flashing red lights, now.

You mean the Austin that is 175 miles inland? Not sure what you’d expect there even with a cat 4 on the coast.

[Jebman]

2 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

You mean the Austin that is 175 miles inland? Not sure what you’d expect there even with a cat 4 on the coast.

That's true, but we have been pretty lucky so far. Perhaps this tropical season will not be as bad as we first feared. I was hoping back in May, that we all might be spared a severe tropical season, in spite of relatively high sea surface temps and a developing La Nina.

[GaWx]

12 hours ago, Jebman said:

That's true, but we have been pretty lucky so far. Perhaps this tropical season will not be as bad as we first feared. I was hoping back in May, that we all might be spared a severe tropical season, in spite of relatively high sea surface temps and a developing La Nina.

But PT6 would already be the 3rd H landfall on the US if it landfalls as an H and only at the halfway point. The record is 6 for entire season. When you get to 5-6, there are only a relative few seasons with that many. Just getting 3 puts it above average for the entire season.

[Jebman]

Well I might stand corrected then. I guess I am holding out for a TC season with no more truly severe hurricanes. I know Beryl was one.

[tiger_deF]

While no model shows any development and there isn’t much vorticity, I’m a little suspicious of this feature crossing the Lesser Antilles. Will likely die in the Caribbean graveyard, but the convection is robust and increasing, and shear does not appear to be destroying the cloud tops at this time. I think this bears watching.

[Normandy]

Was just about to call that feature out.  Very obvious developing wave there passing through the windwards.  Would be interesting to see obs and radar out of there

[GaWx]

 Below are the daily sunspot #s for Sept MTD. Despite still being high, there’s been a modest trend downward. To compare, Aug was way up at 215, the highest in Aug of the modern active era.

 There is support from many papers written since 2008 suggesting a partial negative correlation between sunspot #s and overall Atlantic tropical activity. The idea is that the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere are quickly warmed more than below when the sun is more active. This results in increased atmospheric stability, which is less conducive to tropical convection. I wouldn’t consider the connection proven, but I’m open-minded about it.

 One of the theories being circulated about the very quiet late Aug/early Sep is the very high sunspot #s likely being one of the major contributors to the quiet. With Francine today being designated along with the MDR having increased convection, I do wonder if there could be a partial connection to the very recent moderate reduction in solar activity. Even if there is, the sunspots could quickly rise back one day soon:


2024 09 01 2024.668 182  14.5  27  35
2024 09 02 2024.671 195  21.1  25  32
2024 09 03 2024.673 179  22.2  20  23
2024 09 04 2024.676 174  26.1  21  26
2024 09 05 2024.679 181  13.1  15  20
2024 09 06 2024.682 189  13.3  19  24
2024 09 07 2024.684 167  17.4  21  25
2024 09 08 2024.687 173  17.3  17  22
2024 09 09 2024.690 158  21.2  17  18

[Seminole]

23 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Below are the daily sunspot #s for Sept MTD. Despite still being high, there’s been a modest trend downward. To compare, Aug was way up at 215, the highest in Aug of the modern active era.

 There is support from many papers written since 2008 suggesting a partial negative correlation between sunspot #s and overall Atlantic tropical activity. The idea is that the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere are quickly warmed more than below when the sun is more active. This results in increased atmospheric stability, which is less conducive to tropical convection. I wouldn’t consider the connection proven, but I’m open-minded about it.

 One of the theories being circulated about the very quiet late Aug/early Sep is the very high sunspot #s likely being one of the major contributors to the quiet. With Francine today being designated along with the MDR having increased convection, I do wonder if there could be a partial connection to the very recent moderate reduction in solar activity. Even if there is, the sunspots could quickly rise back one day soon:


2024 09 01 2024.668 182  14.5  27  35
2024 09 02 2024.671 195  21.1  25  32
2024 09 03 2024.673 179  22.2  20  23
2024 09 04 2024.676 174  26.1  21  26
2024 09 05 2024.679 181  13.1  15  20
2024 09 06 2024.682 189  13.3  19  24
2024 09 07 2024.684 167  17.4  21  25
2024 09 08 2024.687 173  17.3  17  22
2024 09 09 2024.690 158  21.2  17  18

It definitely is worth considering. The Maunder Minimum coincided with Little Ice Age. Sunspot activity or lack thereof definitely has an effect on weather and volcanism. 

[NorthHillsWx]

93L looks like it’s going to develop. It has the look. Lots of rotation evident as soon as it came off the African coast and it’s currently maintaining deep convection.

Im intrigued but the tropical-ish thing forecast to spin up off the southeast coast along the boundary. While this likely won’t get very strong and might not be purely tropical, trough axis could cause this to be a prolific rain maker in the Carolina’s. Might be more of a nor Easter but definitely has consistent model support