2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[cptcatz]

1 hour ago, Seminole said:

How in the world do CSU have any credibility at all with that poor a track record? They consistently over estimate and the media hypes their over estimate every year. 

I think the better question is why in the world should Colorado State University have any credibility at predicting hurricane seasons?  Maybe Colorado should stick to snow pack predictions for skiing while University of Miami should take over hurricane predictions...

[Seminole]

9 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

I think the better question is why in the world should Colorado State University have any credibility at predicting hurricane seasons?  Maybe Colorado should stick to snow pack predictions for skiing while University of Miami should take over hurricane predictions...

Or complete Bizzaro World and have University of Miami predict snow packs. 

[NorthHillsWx]

While tropical activity may (and will) pick up in the MDR towards mid month, models showing a very persistent signal for an east coast trough means an east coast landfall seems increasingly unlikely this season. The later you get into September and October the odds of a land falling east coast system really start to decline. Not saying it can’t happen, but odds definitely decrease regardless of overall Atlantic activity 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

While tropical activity may (and will) pick up in the MDR towards mid month, models showing a very persistent signal for an east coast trough means an east coast landfall seems increasingly unlikely this season. The later you get into September and October the odds of a land falling east coast system really start to decline. Not saying it can’t happen, but odds definitely decrease regardless of overall Atlantic activity 

 I sincerely hope your optimism is on the right path about any EC LF, but unfortunately it’s way too early imho to feel comfy about this, especially with the cold neutral to weak La Niña ENSO. Patterns, even persistent ones, often change after a few weeks. For example, in the 2016 Niña, Savannah in early Oct. had its worst H (Matthew) since way back in 1979 (David).

 Furthermore, seasons have become more backloaded overall as I recently posted about, likely related to CC. Many storms still would recurve safely, but having more activity increases the risk. In addition, a place like the NC OB that sticks way out remains vulnerable late despite increased chances for troughing. Lastly regarding outside of the E coast, FL’s Gulf coast is most at risk in Oct due to increased tendency toward troughing. Related to that, fast moving Gulf landfalls of strong storms often have major impacts well inland.

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, Seminole said:

How in the world do CSU have any credibility at all with that poor a track record? They consistently over estimate and the media hypes their over estimate every year. 

 CSU doesn’t consistently overestimate. Rather, they tend to overestimate only when they predict extremely active seasons. That’s why I was referring only to the 5 highest April ACE predictions rather than all of them. If you look at how they have done overall, I believe it is fairly balanced with some close, some missing too high (especially their most active progs), and some missing too low. As I said back in April, betting CSU is going to be too high tends to be a good bet when they’re going very high. That’s why I said I’d short their 4/24 progs of ACE, HDs, etc. But if they weren’t going super active, I wouldn’t make the same bet.

 I feel that CSU does as good a job as just about any organization and thus am thankful they make these freely available predictions. I like to hear their thoughts. But clearly they, just like all, are far from perfect and have had some very bad predictions. One thing I like about them a lot is that I feel that they neither are weenies nor are downplayers.

[cbmclean]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 CSU doesn’t consistently overestimate. Rather, they tend to overestimate only when they predict extremely active seasons. I was referring only to the highest April predictions, not all of them. If you look at how they have done overall, I believe it is fairly balanced with some close, some missing too high (especially their most active progs), and some missing too low. As I said back in April, betting CSU is going to be too high tends to be a good bet when they’re going very high. That’s why I said I’d short their 4/24 progs of ACE, HDs, etc. But if they weren’t going super active, I wouldn’t make the same bet.

If anyone has access to the complete dataset of their April predictions vs the actual season, I'd love to plop it into excel and graph it.

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

If anyone has access to the complete dataset of their April predictions vs the actual season, I'd love to plop it into excel and graph it.

 The complete data is in here:

https://tropical.colostate.edu/archive.html

 Regarding how they did each year, go here for what actually occurred:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

And go here for even more:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/

 I’m looking forward to your report!

[cbmclean]

12 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Klotzbach weighs in again.
 

Get a load of that unusual SST anomaly plot on page 5 of the CSU report.  The arctic ocean basin actually with negative anomalies?  I should screenshot and save to look back on fondly when the artic ocean finally finishes boiling off in 2035 or so.

[cbmclean]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The complete data is in here:

https://tropical.colostate.edu/archive.html

 Regarding how they did each year, go here for what actually occurred:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

And go here for even more:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/

Thanks.  I will try and plot it tonight.  Looks like they have only been issuing an ACE prediction in April since 1995.  June and August predictions go back to 1984.

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Get a load of that unusual SST anomaly plot on page 5 of the CSU report.  The arctic ocean basin actually with negative anomalies?  I should screenshot and save to look back on fondly when the artic ocean finally finishes boiling off in 2035 or so.

Would you please provide a link to this Arctic SST anomaly plot? I guess I’m not looking in the right place.

[WxWatcher007]

The area off the east coast is now tagged. The models have quick development but it’s an open question of whether it’ll get enough tropical characteristics to be subtropical. 
 

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The area off the east coast is now tagged. The models have quick development but it’s an open question of whether it’ll get enough tropical characteristics to be subtropical. 
 

This has been on the UKMET, Euro, and others for several days. I’ve been wondering whether or not it would be T, ST, or ET.

[wthrmn654]

It's kinda a pointless tag too with it having no tropical anything really, only subtropical 

 

1. Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east 
of North Carolina is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  This system could acquire some subtropical 
characteristics over the next few days as it moves north- 
northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern United States. 
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[wthrmn654]

Lmfao  at everything at 10% or 0%

[wthrmn654]

Then if you compare it to the I guess 48hr+ highest anything gets is 30%rest are 10%

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

It's kinda a pointless tag too with it having no tropical anything really, only subtropical 

 

1. Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east 
of North Carolina is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  This system could acquire some subtropical 
characteristics over the next few days as it moves north- 
northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern United States. 
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

It isn’t pointless because the NHC handles both tropical and subtropical.  So, it is their responsibility. Don’t forget that ST storms get named, too.

[skillsweather]

Peak season during this active time seems pretty hot with 10% and 0% odds of anything even becoming tropical in all of the Atlantic... lmao

[WxWatcher007]

 

4 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

It's kinda a pointless tag too with it having no tropical anything really, only subtropical 

 

1. Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east 
of North Carolina is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  This system could acquire some subtropical 
characteristics over the next few days as it moves north- 
northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern United States. 
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

If it has a chance, it has to be tagged, irrespective of the type of season its been--at the very least for mariners. 

[salbers]

The system in the NW Gulf continues to spin up in the eyes of the Spire and HRRR Hi-res models over the next 48 hours.

[WxWatcher007]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This has been on the UKMET, Euro, and others for several days. I’ve been wondering whether or not it would be T, ST, or ET.

With slim pickin's out there to analyze in the Atlantic, why not spend a few minutes on this newest lemon. 

I first posted about the potential here on August 29th (yes, with my peak season forecast in mortal danger I will throw up a whoop for identifying this lol) as the guidance was consistent in developing an area of low pressure or series of areas along a stalled frontal boundary. Normally we see these during the early or latter part of the season, but with greater EC troughing recently, a window of opportunity has opened. 

Yesterday, you could see a robust area of lower level vorticity along the boundary

 

Today that vorticity has wrapped up into an area of low pressure along the boundary. 

 

This is not currently tropical for a few reasons. First and foremost, it's attached to a boundary. That means that the low is baroclinic, not tropical. 

 

Secondly, despite there being a low and convection nearby, the convection is getting blasted to the east by very strong shear. 

 

The result is the following:

While the boundary-attached low is clearly able to generate convection, the shear is pushing the convection off in a way that currently prevents this from becoming independent of the boundary and sustaining the necessary convection over the center to begin the tropical genesis process. 

Over the next few days however, the guidance tries to at least get this low to intensify some, and that could be the window for it to acquire more tropical characteristics. I doubt given the shear that it'll be able to fully become tropical, but there will at the least be a non-tropical low that quickly develops off the East Coast as it moves into Nova Scotia this weekend, and it could acquire enough convection during the intensification phase to be counted as subtropical. 

For those that truly care about the meteorology of tropical genesis, this will be interesting to watch. 

I should also note...that with persistent troughing over the next week or so, this is unlikely to be our only area to monitor. The guidance is picking up on a second quick developing low offshore late this weekend and perhaps another further south sometime next week. These boundaries can spur seedlings that become NS, especially if they are further south like the long range Euro hints at today. Just something to be aware of. 

[Seminole]

41 minutes ago, GaWx said:

It isn’t pointless because the NHC handles both tropical and subtropical.  So, it is their responsibility. Don’t forget that ST storms get named, too.

The fact we are discussing ST storms in early September seems misplaced and exemplifies how strange this season has gone. 

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Would you please provide a link to this Arctic SST anomaly plot? I guess I’m not looking in the right place.

 

It's not an arctic SST plot, just a global SST plot which show some mild coolness in the arctic waters.  TBH it's probably skewed by the map projection but sadly these days its notable anytime the arctic waters are not on fire.

It's in the pdf file here at the top of page 5.

https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1831185547861114940?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1831186136410050579|twgr^3847f70096fb40c4642e071f9426502d5d50c64b|twcon^s2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fphilklotzbach%2Fstatus%2F1831186136410050579%3Ft%3DDKkvBGAWwanHEHBgGhKPHg26s%3D19#:~:text=https%3A//tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024_0903_seasondiscussion.pdf

 

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, wthrmn654 said:

Lmfao  at everything at 10% or 0%

 

To me this is just the forecasters covering themselves after saying the season was going to be Very Active!!  These systems running around are small disorganized sheared out systems with lots of dry air lurking to be humbly honest.  They are however rain makers if they make landfall I would suppose. 

This pattern looks El Nino like to me as well. 

[GaWx]

43 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

 

It's not an arctic SST plot, just a global SST plot which show some mild coolness in the arctic waters.  TBH it's probably skewed by the map projection but sadly these days its notable anytime the arctic waters are not on fire.

It's in the pdf file here at the top of page 5.

https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1831185547861114940?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1831186136410050579|twgr^3847f70096fb40c4642e071f9426502d5d50c64b|twcon^s2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fphilklotzbach%2Fstatus%2F1831186136410050579%3Ft%3DDKkvBGAWwanHEHBgGhKPHg26s%3D19#:~:text=https%3A//tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024_0903_seasondiscussion.pdf

 

Thanks. I have no idea why the Arctic is shown as being cooler than the 1991-2020 normal on this weathermodels.com map.

[Tallis Rockwell]

The La nina year is less active than the El nino year.

[WxWatcher007]

17 minutes ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

The La nina year is less active than the El nino year.

Which is absolutely bananas. We’ll see if things pick up on the backside of the peak. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

19 minutes ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

The La nina year is less active than the El nino year.

We've definitely hit a 3 year anomaly here. 2 years ago we had 14NS in La Nina, last year we had 21NS in Strong El Nino. The longer term might have had a larger correlation that it should be.. we never did >12 NS in Moderate+ El Nino since 1948 until last year. 

[salbers]

La Nina is barely getting started it seems with the SST indices. We might want to give this more time for later in the season.

[Seminole]

The 6Z GFS out to September 21 with nothing significant. The amount of rain that is forecasted for the northern GOM during this period will cool off the SST's. Not a season cancel, but the odds of a tightly wound GOM monster major are trending toward unlikely. 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

21 minutes ago, Seminole said:

The 6Z GFS out to September 21 with nothing significant. The amount of rain that is forecasted for the northern GOM during this period will cool off the SST's. Not a season cancel, but the odds of a tightly wound GOM monster major are trending toward unlikely. 

> gfs

 

not a single molecule