Floydbuster Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 For the threat of a more serious hurricane event, I would be more concerned with the wave in the Central Atlantic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 30 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: For the threat of a more serious hurricane event, I would be more concerned with the wave in the Central Atlantic. Why? And how serious are we talking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 13 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Why? And how serious are we talking? Well the system near Cuba will be interacting with land. The wave in the Central Atlantic could have carte blanche to strengthen through the Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico, eventually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 3 hours ago, Floydbuster said: Well the system near Cuba will be interacting with land. four? 3 hours ago, Floydbuster said: The wave in the Central Atlantic could have carte blanche to strengthen through the Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico, eventually. Yeah and with the MJO This is beyond worrying tbh tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 9 hours ago, Floydbuster said: Well the system near Cuba will be interacting with land. The wave in the Central Atlantic could have carte blanche to strengthen through the Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico, eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Waking up to sunny down here in Orlando. I’m not expecting too many impacts here? Don’t let your guard down up the coast with what probably will become Debby. What’s interesting too is I check into Charleston SC on August 11th. I guess I’ll be checking into the aftermath. We drove down from SE Pa hope the roads are passable in Georgia, SC, NC as I look at the models this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Not only the current wave in the central Atlantic, but both Euro and GFS are also picking up on the wave behind that too, also heading into the Caribbean. That's a good number of long range ensemble members showing development with very few showing an out to sea curve. Ominous look at only mid-August... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 GEFS 9 days out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: GEFS 9 days out I hope this doesn't stall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Might be time to spend ~ $500 for a portable generator and another hundred or so on box fans. Beryl satisfied the once a decade hurricane here, but return frequency doesn't mean 2 hurricanes in a year can't happen, and a garden variety thunderstorm can knock out my power for two or four hours. I've lived all over Texas, CenterPoint is bad at their job. Looking at 18Z ensembles and the MIMIC TPW. I spend at least $1000 in 4 days on food and hotels near DFW last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 2 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Might be time to spend ~ $500 for a portable generator and another hundred or so on box fans. Beryl satisfied the once a decade hurricane here, but return frequency doesn't mean 2 hurricanes in a year can't happen, and a garden variety thunderstorm can knock out my power for two or four hours. I've lived all over Texas, CenterPoint is bad at their job. Looking at 18Z ensembles and the MIMIC TPW. I spend at least $1000 in 4 days on food and hotels near DFW last time. Canadian takes the wave that a couple of the GFS ensembles and about a fifth of the 18Z Euro ensembles develop, and move it into Mexico just S of the Rio Bravo del Norte as a 985mb hurricane. I know its the Canadian but I'm pretty sure there have been upgrades, it is no longer 'The Crazy Uncle' from 15 years ago. Gone are the days where several Cat 4 or Cat 5s each year targetted large cities like Miami and New Orleans. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 @GaWx I'm about to go to be, church tomorrow. I can't see Euro ensembles currently until after 3 am local. How many ensembles have a tropical system in the Caribbean in 5 to 6 days. Noted above, Canadian actual develops that wave and a week from Monday/Tuesday landfalls Mexico as what is probably a Cat 1 hurricane. Can you describe, or better yet, post? I should be in bed already, but I'm up for another 10 minutes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 10 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: @GaWx I'm about to go to be, church tomorrow. I can't see Euro ensembles currently until after 3 am local. How many ensembles have a tropical system in the Caribbean in 5 to 6 days. Noted above, Canadian actual develops that wave and a week from Monday/Tuesday landfalls Mexico as what is probably a Cat 1 hurricane. Can you describe, or better yet, post? I should be in bed already, but I'm up for another 10 minutes. Ed, Pray the hurricanes away, please! 0Z Euro ens: more active than prior runs with 14++ TS+ members that hit anywhere from MX to MS 8/12-14. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 10/20 lemon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 2 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Those are from yesterday. Today's 0Z and 6Z GFS don't have it, very few of GEFS members develop the wave around 55W. Canadian developed a storm, some enthusiasm from Euro ensembles-suggestion many will hit Central America, ~10 perturbations look to cross the Yucatan or maybe W Cuba and enter the Gulf. I watch potential IMBY systems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 39 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Those are from yesterday. Today's 0Z and 6Z GFS don't have it, very few of GEFS members develop the wave around 55W. Canadian developed a storm, some enthusiasm from Euro ensembles-suggestion many will hit Central America, ~10 perturbations look to cross the Yucatan or maybe W Cuba and enter the Gulf. I watch potential IMBY systems. That’s the wave? Yikes, that’s robust. We’re not in the basin wide favorable period yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 That’s the wave? Yikes, that’s robust. We’re not in the basin wide favorable period yet. It's getting a tad too busy this early into ASO, isn't it? Bad omens, no doubt. lol.. Perhaps these seasoned tropical climatologists like Klotzbach know more than SM armchair experts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 First gfs now cmc showing something else in gulf after deb??! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 4 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Those are from yesterday. Today's 0Z and 6Z GFS don't have it, very few of GEFS members develop the wave around 55W. Canadian developed a storm, some enthusiasm from Euro ensembles-suggestion many will hit Central America, ~10 perturbations look to cross the Yucatan or maybe W Cuba and enter the Gulf. I watch potential IMBY systems. what's IMBY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 44 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: what's IMBY In my back yard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 13 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: In my back yard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 We have a lemon now on the path as well. August may not disappoint! ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. East of the Windward Islands: A tropical wave located a few hundred miles to the east of the Windward Islands continues to produce an area of showers and thunderstorms, and earlier satellite wind data showed winds of 30-35 mph just north of the wave axis. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of this system over the next week as the system moves quickly westward at around 20 mph, crossing the Windward Islands early this week and moving into the central and western Caribbean by the mid to latter part of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 1 hour ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: what's IMBY Just N of the Houston city limits but still with a Houston mailing address. I pay Spring ISD taxes, if that helps. I read and post more on TC threads that may come near SE Texas, It is accurate considering the entire state, calling Houston 'Southeast Texas, but for TCs, we should be the upper Texas coast, down to about Matagorda Bay, that mid Texas coast down to around Corpus Christi, and lower Texas coast down to Mexico. But Houston area. 5 days no power with Beryl. I've seen some blue FEMA tarps on homes w/ roof damage out out towards Katy and Cypress, but lots of wind, some of the pines uprooted to snapped, but just limbs in my subdivision. Ike my subdivision was full of blue FEMA tarps covering holes in roofs. (rooves?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 1 hour ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: A gut feeling on a storm in Mexico just S of the Rio Bravo del Norte on one model and following Debby on another, is just a gut feeling. I can gut feeling and split the difference and go with that lone Euro ensemble perturbation that is bringing a Cat 4 or Cat 5 to NOLA, but that is just a guess. Even meteorologists with MS and PhD degrees could guess 9 days out any better than that. If 12 ensembles get it into the Gulf or BoC, than 38 perturbations show either no development or a track close enough to Venezuela that competition for inflow with the South American heat low that lags the effective solar equator and die or don't feel a bent N and hit Central America. The 10/20 NHC probabilities are probably just about right for potential 98L Development in the Caribbean increases as the heat low moves S following the effective equator, which reduces competition for inflow and weakens the pressure gradient tthat drives fast Low level flow and creates hostile shear. The shear in the Caribbean is less hostile than normal for early August, no doubt the reason some ensembles do develop a storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 7 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: A gut feeling on a storm in Mexico just S of the Rio Bravo del Norte on one model and following Debby on another, is just a gut feeling. I can gut feeling and split the difference and go with that lone Euro ensemble perturbation that is bringing a Cat 4 or Cat 5 to NOLA, but that is just a guess. Even meteorologists with MS and PhD degrees could guess 9 days out any better than that. If 12 ensembles get it into the Gulf or BoC, than 38 perturbations show either no development or a track close enough to Venezuela that competition for inflow with the South American heat low that lags the effective solar equator and die or don't feel a bent N and hit Central America. The 10/20 NHC probabilities are probably just about right for potential 98L Development in the Caribbean increases as the heat low moves S following the effective equator, which reduces competition for inflow and weakens the pressure gradient tthat drives fast Low level flow and creates hostile shear. The shear in the Caribbean is less hostile than normal for early August, no doubt the reason some ensembles do develop a storm. They’re flip flopping imo I would give it time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 On 8/3/2024 at 9:00 AM, cptcatz said: . Ominous look at only mid-August... yikes, I’ve still got some outdoor hurricane prep to do. Thankfully nothing major, just small peace-of-mind, above and beyond stuff. Securing soffit vent covers with adhesive caulk, making covers for roof vents from sheet metal, and a few gable end braces up in the attic, and a few minor 5 minute tasks. A long weekend or so of work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 There are so many weenies in here it looks like an Oscar Meyer factory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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