A-L-E-K Posted July 26 Share Posted July 26 zzzzzz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted July 26 Share Posted July 26 13 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: zzzzzz Zzzzzzz indeed, not a photon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 26 Share Posted July 26 Euro ensembles are trending more aggressive.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 26 Share Posted July 26 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: Euro ensembles are trending more aggressive.. GFS slowly catching on but still not doing much with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 26 Share Posted July 26 4 hours ago, ineedsnow said: GFS slowly catching on but still not doing much with it. Other than a few random perturbations on the other ensembles, this looks like Euro ensembles against the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted July 26 Share Posted July 26 5 hours ago, cptcatz said: Euro ensembles are trending more aggressive.. Don’t show Fl’s insurance companies this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 26 Share Posted July 26 The 12Z Euro has no closed surface low. It looks somewhat like the 12Z CMC with just a wave that reaches the W GOM at 240 hours. More importantly, let’s see how the 12Z EPS looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted July 26 Share Posted July 26 SAL is a real problem right now in the Caribbean basin. By next week the Caribbean basin plume will be in the GOM and another large plume is moving toward the MDR and will migrate westwards. Until the SAL diminishes I think this current pattern holds at least another 2 weeks. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted July 26 Share Posted July 26 8 minutes ago, Seminole said: SAL is a real problem right now in the Caribbean basin. By next week the Caribbean basin plume will be in the GOM and another large plume is moving toward the MDR and will migrate westwards. Until the SAL diminishes I think this current pattern holds at least another 2 weeks. The SAL is actually abating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 26 Share Posted July 26 12Z EPS: still has members with a TC (~10) but that’s only ~1/2 as many as 0Z had. About 8 of these 10 hit the CONUS from LA around to NC Aug 4-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 26 Share Posted July 26 SAL is a real problem right now in the Caribbean basin. By next week the Caribbean basin plume will be in the GOM and another large plume is moving toward the MDR and will migrate westwards. Until the SAL diminishes I think this current pattern holds at least another 2 weeks. That's due to SPH placement. I mentioned last night that it's really the only thing suppressing TC development. Keeping the bottle corked, per se. Once the A-B begins to slightly weaken and gain latitude into a more typical position for ASO, given other factors in place, the fireworks should begin. There will always be a plume here or there, but once the ITCZ lifts, the MDR will become more favorable for CV waves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted July 26 Share Posted July 26 12zEuro and GFS show a weak disturbance developing off OBX tomorrow and hooking towards eastern LI/eastern New England Monday morning. Looks tropical, but very weak. ~1000 mb Interesting because it's immediate term and otherwise dead out there (for now)... GFS is boring evolution, and largely non-event. GEFS are more like EPS though... EPS is a little interesting... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 26 Share Posted July 26 NHC has a 7 day lemon on the system the EPS have. Bud is dissipating in the EPAC. CFS bias adjusted MJO predicts MJO emerging into 8 and then 1 as August begins. The other MJO forecasts on the CPC page, not so much. Empirical MJO sees conditions becoming favorable in about 10 days. I tend to think the Euro ensembles are a smidge premature. Unless it gets significant support from the other reliable models and ensembles, I think the 20% lemon stays a lemon until dropped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 26 Share Posted July 26 18z GFS hits Louisiana with a good storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: 18z GFS hits Louisiana with a good storm la la land and nit-picking, but it's a Port Arthur/Beaumont track. Lake Charles and west would get crushed though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: 18z GFS hits Louisiana with a good storm And yet no support whatsoever with the GFS ensembles... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 0Z EPS back to being similar to the very active 0Z run of 24 hours ago, especially LA through FL through E seaboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 6z gfs onboard for tracking first 10 days of August. I’ll be in Orlando August 1st to 11th then heading to Charleston SC so I’m watching this. I’ll be driving so just make sure I’m at full most of ride as needed. Driving down from SE Pa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 I wouldn’t discount the rotting front off NC for some short lived development over the next 48 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 For now the GFS appears to be on its own island on this. It does not appear to have support from even its own ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 35 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I wouldn’t discount the rotting front off NC for some short lived development over the next 48 hours. Why not? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 12Z EPS: active with almost all of its TCs near or off E coast vs GOM. So, supports Euro op, which has H just off NC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 If I am not mistaken, the Euro ensembles run at the same resolution as the op, 9 km. The GFS ensembles run at half resolution. That the op 6Z GFS keeps showing a somewhat similar outcome to the Euro, with almost ensemble support, may be a resolution issue. At the time range, a Eastern Gulf versus a SEUSA landfall is still up in the air. The GFS develops the low later, which may be part of the difference between the GFS and the Euro EDIT TO ADD: I was starting to get worried that with only the Euro showing this for several days that this would be a spurious cyclone. But Canadian coming on board. Canadian is also a E Gulf hit. Earlier development going N makes sense. No clue whether Euro or GFS/Canadian will be correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 Zzzzzz 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said: Zzzzzz Wake up bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 First ever hurricane hunter flight, 1943 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 50 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Wake up bro 18Z GFS said go back to bed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 18Z GFS said go back to bedThe nhc discounted it and went mandarin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 1 hour ago, jlauderdal said: 3 hours ago, Maxwell03 said: 18Z GFS said go back to bed The nhc discounted it and went mandarin. They know better than to forecast based on run-to-run op model flip-flopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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