GaWx Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: There it is Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle part of next week while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward. Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. 2. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean: An area of low pressure could form by the middle part of next week a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas. Some slow development of this system is possible thereafter while the system moves westward or west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Blake Good call on first alerting us to this area in the SW Atlantic two days ago. 18Z GFS, Euro, and ICON also have something though the ICON does not quite close off to a TD as of the end of the run at 120 just before NE FL landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 The ICON went from virtually nothing on the 12Z to a nearly closed off low on the 18Z to a TS on the 0Z. It landfalls as what I think is a TD due to slight weakening near Brunswick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 The 0Z CMC, GFS, and ICON all have a TC off the SE coast. But the 0Z UKMET, which had a TD on the 12Z, doesn’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Pretty active even in the absence of a TC. While the BoC potential already heightens the risk of significant flooding, the GFS runs today have been concerning. Maybe it’s overdone, but it wasn’t last week with the Florida atmospheric river iirc. WPC forecast 00z GFS Given the guidance and CAG source region, I don’t think a major wind spin up is likely. But with the Caribbean firehose being pointed at the Gulf coast this could be a significant event wherever the hose lands. For the SW Atlantic potential, that’s starting to look legitimate with more run to run and cross guidance consistency. Shear and dry air may be the chief inhibitors there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 0Z Euro weaker than 12Z so far off SE coast. Edit: The 0Z GEFS is much more active and wetter for the offshore SE low than the prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 11 hours ago, GaWx said: The consensus of the 12Z GFS, Euro, UKMET (see below) has a TC somewhere along the SE coast late next week. <Sigh> Why does this sort of thing always happen right after I leave on vacation? When we went to Ireland in 2017 we got there, took a nap, and then I saw Irma forecast to hit Savannah as a major... didn't stay that way as we all know, but it sure made the first day or two of our trip rather interesting as I was trying to coordinate with neighbors to take care of our cat. I don't expect to see a major barreling in this time but stil... (and yes it's been that long since we've gone on an actual vacation...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 7 hours ago, gtg947h said: <Sigh> Why does this sort of thing always happen right after I leave on vacation? When we went to Ireland in 2017 we got there, took a nap, and then I saw Irma forecast to hit Savannah as a major... didn't stay that way as we all know, but it sure made the first day or two of our trip rather interesting as I was trying to coordinate with neighbors to take care of our cat. I don't expect to see a major barreling in this time but stil... (and yes it's been that long since we've gone on an actual vacation...) Thankfully, we’re in June rather than August/Sept. The strongest I’ve seen on any model so far (which is GFS) is lower end TS. Per history that I posted yesterday, there hasn’t been a June TS hit on the SE US from the E or SE since way back in 1909 though there was a late May TS hit (on SC) in 2020 and another late May TS hit (on Jacksonville) in 2012. 6Z update: ICON weaker than prior run and back to no closed low. GFS is also weaker than its prior run but still has a TD landfall at GA/FL border. *Edit: Oops, I somehow missed Danny of 2021, which hit S SC as a 40 mph TS. That is the only June TS back at least to 1851 (per records) to hit SC from the E or SE. I just edited yesterday’s list of May/June analogs to include this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Pretty active even in the absence of a TC. While the BoC potential already heightens the risk of significant flooding, the GFS runs today have been concerning. Maybe it’s overdone, but it wasn’t last week with the Florida atmospheric river iirc. WPC forecast 00z GFS Given the guidance and CAG source region, I don’t think a major wind spin up is likely. But with the Caribbean firehose being pointed at the Gulf coast this could be a significant event wherever the hose lands. For the SW Atlantic potential, that’s starting to look legitimate with more run to run and cross guidance consistency. Shear and dry air may be the chief inhibitors there. Re: The firehose- I'm sure you've seen a second (weak) Gulf low forming a week out in the BoC or W. Gulf on some of the models/ensembles. No model shows anything much stronger than a 1000 mb, The GFS is persistent in showing convergence near I-10 and thus the >7 inch rains from near Houston to the Austin/San Antonio area near the N end of a pretty sharp surface trough, above/beyond the coastal convergence. Convergence and PW of 2.7 or greater, its quite the recipe. Canadian maybe also showing the enhanced precipitation, although less than the GFS runs, Euro doesn't have the localized enhanced rain at all N of the border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 12Z models so far for low off SE US coast: -ICON has the low further west and this leads to a further SW track into C FL. It is a tad stronger than prior run but is still weak/likely not quite a TD. -GFS similarly comes in further SW into C FL; similarly weak to 6Z with a TD vs the TS of the 0Z -GEFS further S, less active, and not as wet as prior two runs -CMC weaker than the already weak 0Z with nothing closed into SC (similar track to 0Z) -UKMET no TC just like 0Z and unlike the TD that forms on yesterday’s 12Z just offshore Brunswick on Fri moving N to GA/SC border 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Lemon may get a flight Tuesday, orange may get two flights tomorrow. 894 NOUS42 KNHC 161448 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1050 AM EDT SUN 16 JUNE 2024 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z JUNE 2024 TCPOD NUMBER.....24-016 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE) FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72 A. 17/1800Z A. 18/1130Z,1730Z B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE C. 17/1515Z C. 18/0915Z D. 19.5N 92.0W D. 22.5N 93.5W E. 17/1730Z TO 17/2230Z E. 18/1100Z TO 18/1730Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST G. FIX H. NO WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SUSPECT AREA IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT. B. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25.5N 68.0W FOR 18/1800Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 The 12Z Euro is weaker than the prior 3 runs with an open wave at hour 108 offshore the Carolinas. The associated pretty unimpressive rain is headed toward N SC/NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 I need a PPV model. CoD and TT don't start showing Euro until 2 pm local. Judging by 6Z Euro and 12Z GFS, I think the >6 inch rainfall away from the immediate coast will be S of the Houston. Maybe as far S as Corpus Christi. An upslope on the Sierra Madre Oriental. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 15 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I need a PPV model. CoD and TT don't start showing Euro until 2 pm local. Judging by 6Z Euro and 12Z GFS, I think the >6 inch rainfall away from the immediate coast will be S of the Houston. Maybe as far S as Corpus Christi. An upslope on the Sierra Madre Oriental. Just started a thread. Here's 12z Euro through 90. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Euro ensembles are rinse and repeat on the current Bay of Campeche cherry in 9 days. Once again TDs, maybe barely TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 Based on the weaker trend today for the potential SW Atlantic low including the brand new 0Z model consensus, it wouldn’t surprise me if the NHC were to lower the 7 day 30% lemon to 20% soon. I’ve seen enough to feel confident that there won’t be a TC from this. The 0Z ICON, GFS, CMC, and UKMET have no TC from it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 I’m actually liking its chances based of current satellite. Nice turning along the trough and you can see it starting to pinch off and separate. Will it stay convectively active enough is the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 24 minutes ago, Normandy said: I’m actually liking its chances based of current satellite. Nice turning along the trough and you can see it starting to pinch off and separate. Will it stay convectively active enough is the question Outside of the GFS/GEFS, which to me don’t look impressive, the 12Z model consensus has only an open wave. I continue to predict this won’t become a TD with 90% confidence. But I’ll still keep watching the models and satellite images as in my mind it’s ~10% rather than 0% as I haven’t totally written it off just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 What does WRA activation mean? Google isn't helping me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 31 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: What does WRA activation mean? Google isn't helping me. 1. Maybe wx recon something? Just guessing 2. The 18Z GFS is the weakest for the SW Atlantic since way back to the 6Z June 15th run as it has virtually no closed LLC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 The “Secondary Gulf Potential” is now a lemon in the BoC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 92L? PTC2? Euro hour 90... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: 92L? PTC2? Euro hour 90... 2. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: Another broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system early next week while it moves slowly northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 Regarding the SW Atlantic system, they just designated this as Invest 92L though the TWO chances remain low: Southwestern Atlantic Ocean: An area of showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward. The system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeastern United States by Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Currently, no model has a TC from this. At most the models have a very weak low and more like a trough. But you never know for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 Does this deserve a 92L thread? It doesn't look great on satellite, but something is trying to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 9 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Does this deserve a 92L thread? It doesn't look great on satellite, but something is trying to happen. do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 55 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Does this deserve a 92L thread? It doesn't look great on satellite, but something is trying to happen. Based on the TWO image, it appears that the NHC is raising the chance from 20% to 30%. I didn’t expect that. I don’t see the text yet. Here it is: Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92): A small area of low pressure has formed about 300 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas this evening with disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive due to nearby dry air, further development of this system is possible while the low moves west-northwestward and approaches the northeastern coast of Florida or Georgia early on Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 4 minutes ago, Gonzalo00 said: do it This is @GaWx, he was on this a week ago, I'll do the threat for 93L, Hijo de Alberto, which probably never gets named. Which may not even be an invest. Is that Steven Tyler through a filter? 8 minutes ago, GaWx said: Based on the TWO image, it appears that the NHC is raising the chance from 20% to 30%. I didn’t expect that. I don’t see the text yet. Here it is: Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92): A small area of low pressure has formed about 300 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas this evening with disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive due to nearby dry air, further development of this system is possible while the low moves west-northwestward and approaches the northeastern coast of Florida or Georgia early on Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. You spotted it first, you should start a new thread when you think it is appropriate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 This is a very interesting pic of Alberto: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=sp&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 Corpus Christi AFD states another system will affect their CWA next weekend. Could this be invest 92 or 93L? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 If it’s an invest or has legit development odds it should get a thread imo. I don’t have a monopoly over tread starting so other folks feel free to start! @GaWx It’s not terribly surprising to me that the SW disturbance I discussed a while back is an invest now. I am a little surprised to see such a well defined low, but it needs convection, and that may be tough with time running out and dry air/shear lurking. Perhaps it’ll take advantage of the diurnal cycle to spur TC genesis. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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