WxWatcher007 Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: This could be relevant in both the hellworld classic and insurance costs threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 Heh, suddenly the Euro wants to develop something (sub)tropical off the SE coast in the next few days. Stays offshore. Just kind of speaks to this nebulous signal over the next ten days or so. 72 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 @GaWx similar to the Ukmet? Also, look at the EPAC signal now. Interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: @GaWx similar to the Ukmet? Also, look at the EPAC signal now. Interesting. Today’s 12Z run is the 6th UKMET run in a row with the TCG off the SE coast with this one stronger (TS) but back to moving NE safely off the E coast (0Z was moving N toward NC): NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 28.6N 78.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 12.06.2024 48 28.6N 78.9W 1007 35 0000UTC 13.06.2024 60 29.0N 78.3W 1009 33 1200UTC 13.06.2024 72 30.8N 75.2W 1007 44 0000UTC 14.06.2024 84 31.7N 74.5W 1008 36 1200UTC 14.06.2024 96 31.6N 73.3W 1009 33 0000UTC 15.06.2024 108 33.6N 71.4W 1008 31 1200UTC 15.06.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING Meanwhile, the 12Z UKMET dropped the W Gulf TCG that it had on its prior 2 runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 Euro and Canadian ensembles don't support the GFS and ensembles very low NW Caribbean/Gulf pressure at 2 weeks at all, but the entertainment value of what are likely spurious storms is high. Back in the real world the rain from the moisture pooling in the NW Caribbean and Gulf isn't a bad thing, the heaviest rain looks to fall in S. Florida which is in level 2 (severe) drought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Low Pressure Lunacy Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 6 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Thanks for this. I just opened it in another tab and zoomed in 500% and it has 18 inches on top of Ft Myers! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 The ECMWF-UKMET superblend for July-Nov from Ben Noll's site. That pattern/look is classic AMO+ combined with a La Niña. More to toss on the pile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 I've been alluding to this window of favorability and I have a little time to explain what I've meant. The overall setup over the next 10 days or so is a bit tricky. For for this early in the season, it's our first real window for some type of development. What makes this interesting is that the guidance after waffling for about a week or so are now highlighting a broad window with areas to casually watch imo. Let's start by talking about the main features associated with this potential window opening. -Currently we have combined with diffluent flow we have an anomalous plume of tropical moisture streaming north into the Gulf of Mexico around a ridge nosing into the Caribbean. As this happens, we have broad cyclonic flow over the western Caribbean and Central America. Not quite declared a CAG from what I've seen, but that's possible at some point within the next week or so. Nothing spectacularly strong, but you just need a window for a seedling to develop. The odds of TC genesis also end up slightly elevated given how exceptionally warm this region is this early in the season. Let's turn to three areas. 1) Gulf of Mexico/SE US Coast (3-7 Days) This is the most immediate area of interest. The signal for organization and possible TC genesis, however muted, has existed for this region first. The signal has bounced around too. The GFS originally took some of the energy ejected out of the Caribbean and tried to organize a low in the Gulf. For a while it was very aggressive with the signal but has settled to a more climatologically favored broad and moisture laden low in the eastern Gulf. The Canadian has been further west, and the Euro was barely on board until recently. Not a surprise given how weak the signal overall has been at times. However, the signal in the last day has diverged a bit, with the Euro taking the ejecting energy across Florida and developing a low, perhaps (sub)tropical, off the SE coast before going harmlessly out to sea. Today the GFS has tried moving toward this solution. EPS GEFS This is an interesting short term shift, but it may very well may be rooted in a realistic seed. Both the GFS and especially Euro take an area of vorticity currently in the Gulf across the FL Peninsula midweek before some type of development. The Euro is most aggressive. Although it is highly sheared, the small area of vorticity has held on and tightened a bit today. Let's not overstate it--it doesn't look like much. But again, we watch for seedlings this time of year that can become something more organized eventually. Let's see what it looks like tomorrow and the coming days. One thing to watch is if it gets trapped under a ridge that will bring heat to much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast next week but that's just speculation given the latest GFS run. The Euro develops a modest low that gets swept out to sea in straightforward fashion. 2) BoC Low (6-9 Days) This has been a consistent signal the last day or so by the Euro/EPS, and the GFS/GEFS are on board to an extent. Whether this comes from an EPAC disturbance or something that rolls up as a result of being on the Atlantic side of a CAG remains to be seen. I'd bet on any vorticity finding itself in the Bay of Campeche developing provided it has sufficient time. 3) SW Atlantic (10+ Days) Not worth much ink, but as an Atlantic ridge flexes in the long range we may want to watch if there's a sharp wave or piece of a trough that breaks off and tries to develop. Again, not worth much for now. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 Euro and Canadian ensembles don't support the GFS and ensembles very low NW Caribbean/Gulf pressure at 2 weeks at all, but the entertainment value of what are likely spurious storms is high. Back in the real world the rain from the moisture pooling in the NW Caribbean and Gulf isn't a bad thing, the heaviest rain looks to fall in S. Florida which is in level 2 (severe) drought.We can easily handle a foot of rain over 5 days, problem is training on the SW coast and you get to 15 inches in less than a day. We had an event in Fort Lauderdale a year ago, 20+ in 12 hours but very isolated, this setup is very different. Lots of noise in the models, gulf really isnt favorable for at least a week, maybe something finds a small window but its all about the rain for this one and the texas system down the road,maybe. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 1 hour ago, jlauderdal said: 7 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Euro and Canadian ensembles don't support the GFS and ensembles very low NW Caribbean/Gulf pressure at 2 weeks at all, but the entertainment value of what are likely spurious storms is high. Back in the real world the rain from the moisture pooling in the NW Caribbean and Gulf isn't a bad thing, the heaviest rain looks to fall in S. Florida which is in level 2 (severe) drought. We can easily handle a foot of rain over 5 days, problem is training on the SW coast and you get to 15 inches in less than a day. We had an event in Fort Lauderdale a year ago, 20+ in 12 hours but very isolated, this setup is very different. Lots of noise in the models, gulf really isnt favorable for at least a week, maybe something finds a small window but its all about the rain for this one and the texas system down the road,maybe. I'm 50/50 on Alberto developing off SEUSA and then OTS. Anything after seems quite uncertain. Two weenie GFS runs in a row, but when has the GFS been right 2 weeks out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 Would certainly be a harbinger of a hyperactive season if we beat the EPAC to the first storm of the NW hemisphere… Model signals are going to back on and off development over the next few days but in the long run we are entering a more favorable period for disturbances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 0Z UKMET: 1. keeps streak going to 7 of runs with a TC off the SE US coast: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 30.3N 77.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 13.06.2024 48 30.6N 77.5W 1010 31 1200UTC 13.06.2024 60 32.4N 74.1W 1009 35 0000UTC 14.06.2024 72 33.3N 73.8W 1010 32 1200UTC 14.06.2024 84 34.9N 71.9W 1011 28 0000UTC 15.06.2024 96 38.6N 67.7W 1007 36 1200UTC 15.06.2024 108 42.4N 62.9W 1004 37 0000UTC 16.06.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING —————————————- 2. Again the UKMET doesn’t have a W GOM TCG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 NHC lemon'ed it: Quote 1. Eastern Gulf of Mexico and Offshore Southeast U.S.: A trough of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move northeastward across Florida during the next day or so and offshore of the U.S. Southeast coast later this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally unfavorable, although some slow development is possible when the system is offshore of the U.S. Southeast coast. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Florida during the next few days. For more information, see products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and local National Weather Service Forecast Offices. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Weather Prediction Center products can be found at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov and National Weather Service forecast information can be found at www.weather.gov Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 2 hours ago, marsman said: NHC lemon'ed it: This is now the 1st Invest of the season, 90L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 Makes me feel good when an area I tag early eventually gets highlighted by the NHC lol. 90L is getting sheared terribly but the convection is quite strong. Some of the high res guidance is ugly in the coming days with regard to rainfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 CSU updated 2024 forecast unchanged from April: https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-06.pdf 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 No surprise, but the shear is just absurd across the much of the western Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 ✈️✈️✈️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 Despite the shear pushing the convection away (preventing any significant organization), there’s a pretty solid low level spin just SW of Tampa. You can see it on radar and visible imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 I'm still thinking a closed low develops off SEUSA from the vorticity just W of TPA. It'll be an E weighted system, it may never get beyond a TD or whatever they would call an STD if that abbreviation wasn't more widely know for something else. Might still be Alberto. IMBY, the op GFS and ensembles with a weak and broad low buried in the BoC but swinging deep moisture towards my house, with PW off 2.5" or higher this time next week, I like that. It has been a fairly wet spring, with an unusual amount of severe weather in SETX, but I think damper ground helps limit the feed back of the inevitable Mexican heat Ridge, and helps avoid the repeat of Summer 2023 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 Africa Standing Wave likely to take hold through July soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 23 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said: Africa Standing Wave likely to take hold through July soon. This would suggest if nothing happens in the next week or 10 days, nothing will happen for the next 6 weeks. At least the old climatology, June and July combined produced just more than 1 TC, or a sedate Atlantic for the second half of June and July would be normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 90L will have a narrow chance for weak development off the SE coast, but the signal for something in the BoC has grown a bit since my post yesterday. Not a bad look on the ensembles. Edit: adding EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 The area I highlighted a few hours ago is actually pretty robust now. Just very small and right offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 Siesta Key and Sarasota really under the gun as convection continues to fire and get sheared east of the apparent low pressure center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 39 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Siesta Key and Sarasota really under the gun as convection continues to fire and get sheared east of the apparent low pressure center. 3.93" in the last hour 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 17 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: 3.93" in the last hour The cloud top temperatures with the convection have been as cold as -70 to -75C, and with a highly tropical environment with PWs pushing 2.25+ inches, some of the rainfall rates have been reaching 3 to 4 inches/hour over the last hour. Part of the convective band is offshore, but part of it over the last hour has edged onshore and is impacting the urban corridor from near Bradenton southward down through Sarasota. Recent radar trends suggest some northward advance of the convective band with the low center also showing some evidence of deepening somewhat which suggests the ongoing convective organization, albeit it sheared, over the southeast part of the low center may maintain itself in response to stronger low-level convergence/forcing. This suggests at least in the near-term that extremely heavy rainfall rates within this convective band may continue to edge farther inland and persist, with impacts in particular along the Bradenton to Sarosota urban corridor. Given extremely high rainfall rates of 3 to 4 inches/hour, some storm totals over the next 2 to 3 hours may locally approach or exceed 6 to 8 inches. Urban flash flooding is considered likely given the set-up, and this situation will need to be closely monitored going into the evening hours. Orrison https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0425&yr=2024 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 0Z UKMET: 990 mb Newfoundland Sunday: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 30.2N 77.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 13.06.2024 36 30.0N 77.4W 1009 39 0000UTC 14.06.2024 48 31.7N 75.9W 1008 33 1200UTC 14.06.2024 60 32.9N 73.8W 1007 36 0000UTC 15.06.2024 72 34.5N 71.8W 1005 32 1200UTC 15.06.2024 84 37.6N 67.7W 1001 41 0000UTC 16.06.2024 96 42.2N 61.6W 993 44 1200UTC 16.06.2024 108 47.8N 55.0W 990 37 0000UTC 17.06.2024 120 53.6N 51.5W 982 42 1200UTC 17.06.2024 132 POST-TROPICAL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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