J.Mike Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 March 5th is my birthday. I'll see what I can do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Zero. Idiom. You really take everything you read here literally lol? I've been told I'm a literalist. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here’s the 30 day Euro Weeklies pattern from March 4th to April 4th. After this winter I'm calling them the WEAKlies! They didn't know jack diddly squat this year, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 WB 12Z EPS extended control March 23 lock in the crocus and daffodiI crusher.... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 16 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS extended control March 23 lock in the crocus and daffodiI crusher.... If we can get 70 degree weather in January (incl 80 in DC) then I’m not going to shed a tear if people get mad about spring snow. Yeah, I know I’m being spiteful. But unseasonable weather can go both ways 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 8 hours ago, 87storms said: March 17, 2014 was legit...we had about 6-8" in Bethesda. March 2018 was about half that, but still a decent event...and was also a reminder that you really need rates during the day to keep up with the sun angle. Once the rates lightened up, it was a wrap. Also I think it was March 2017 and not 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS extended control March 23 lock in the crocus and daffodiI crusher.... Thank god we don’t track to hour 840. Hour 84 is hardly reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 53 minutes ago, Interstate said: Also I think it was March 2017 and not 2018 It was 2018. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 hours ago, BristowWx said: Thank god we don’t track to hour 840. Hour 84 is hardly reliable. Hour 8.4 is hardly reliable... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 lol we go through this every year. Then invariably we go back to tracking things that we know are way way way too far out and thinking at 24 or 48 hours we’re “safe” despite knowing all the rug pulls we’ve suffered over the years inside those leads. Copium is a powerful drug! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Next week the GFS on some of it runs lately has a cold press from the north Something to keep an eye on. Probably a long shot but maybe a chance at a front end Thump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 hours ago, Chris78 said: Next week the GFS on some of it runs lately has a cold press from the north Something to keep an eye on. Probably a long shot but maybe a chance at a front end Thump. The EURO indicates a better shot at seeing a tornado vs. snow with that one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 It's been an hour since the last post in this region. Can we fire up the severe weather thread? I'm getting hyped about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, 87storms said: It's been an hour since the last post in this region. Can we fire up the severe weather thread? I'm getting hyped about that. @Kmlwx usually starts that, but someone can get it going. If there’s a “we’re due index” for thunderstorms, it’s got to be pretty high because the last 2 years have been duds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @Kmlwx usually starts that, but someone can get it going. If there’s a “we’re due index” for thunderstorms, it’s got to be pretty high because the last 2 years have been duds. Yea, that should probably be KMLWX. He'll know when it's time. It's probably a little early. Edit: He did create it in December of 2022 for '23, though. Shows what kind of winter we had last year lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, 87storms said: Yea, that should probably be KMLWX. He'll know when it's time. It's probably a little early lol. Usually starts late april early may, no? I’m overseas the entire month of April so I get to skip the most boring part of the year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @Kmlwx usually starts that, but someone can get it going. If there’s a “we’re due index” for thunderstorms, it’s got to be pretty high because the last 2 years have been duds. Speak for yourself. My town has been hit by 2 tornadoes in 5 years and my property sustained major damage twice last summer. No thanks. I’ll take a nice boring summer where I can sit by my pool and not coordinate contractor repairs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Speak for yourself. My town has been hit by 2 tornadoes in 5 years and my property sustained major damage twice last summer. No thanks. I’ll take a nice boring summer where I can sit by my pool and not coordinate contractor repairs. Oh yeah I forgot about that. I hear you. I feel like I didnt even hear thunder IMBY last May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 FWIW, I don't think winter is over yet. Still time (albeit not a lot of time) for one more...or at least more to track. We've weaseled into a few events this year, so no reason to think it can't happen again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, 87storms said: Yea, that should probably be KMLWX. He'll know when it's time. It's probably a little early. Edit: He did create it in December of 2022 for '23, though. Shows what kind of winter we had last year lol. Done 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 That is a massive -PNA (in the Pacific) through Day 16 on the 12z GEFS! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: That is a massive -PNA (in the Pacific) through Day 16 on the 12z GEFS! Only 15-30 days away. It’s become lunacy vs discussion. Reminds me of political sites where wishes and feelings overtake reality and outcome That’s a bad direction switch from just 5 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 38 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Only 15-30 days away. It’s become lunacy vs discussion. Reminds me of political sites where wishes and feelings overtake reality and outcome That’s a bad direction switch from just 5 years ago I think it will verify. Everyone pretty much knows that it's not going to snow for the next 16 days. That would be much more difficult without models. Humans like to be challenged, because that's how they learn best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I think it will verify. Everyone pretty much knows that it's not going to snow for the next 16 days. That would be much more difficult without models. Humans like to be challenged, because that's how they learn best. For the most part the majority of model supporters do not feel change is necessary. That should have taken another big hit this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Weeklies seemed to have kicked the can to mid March. We are down to March 1993 or March 1958 lol. So sad 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Weeklies seemed to have kicked the can to mid March. We are down to March 1993 or March 1958 lol. So sad The only time they will be right about blocking will be opening day of baseball through mid-April probably… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 The latest Weeklies get the patten workable by the week of the 11th to the 18th. The pattern on the Weeklies then continues to look workable through the end of March. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The latest Weeklies get the patten workable by the week of the 11th to the 18th. The pattern on the Weeklies then continues to look workable through the end of March. I don't know.. the El Nino's about to take a big hit. These -2-3c anomalies are about to make it to the surface I wouldn't be surprised if some cold water started to appear at the surface in the next few weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The latest Weeklies get the patten workable by the week of the 11th to the 18th. The pattern on the Weeklies then continues to look workable through the end of March. Username checks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 8 minutes ago, IronTy said: Username checks out. Lol, I’m not saying that I believe them, but I’m simply just sharing what the model run shows. Either way, Winter weather tracking is all over by later next month. Might as well track it until the bitter end! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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