stormtracker Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 GFS still some shit regarding the next potential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 12z looked better?There is better separation with southern wave so idk. You’re probably right though. Hard to say. This definitely all favors NE of course. I might decide to chase it if it becomes a big event. Haven’t gone anywhere this year yet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Icon developed too late but in line with what we’d want to see just farther SE development if possible . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Please tell me something good lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Euro just pulled an ICON with missing panels at the important part, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Please tell me something good lol.Another confusing run lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Phasing out of sync and too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, Ji said: Phasing out of sync and too late i'm done with dynamics. I want it to be 18 degrees at onset. no cold air sucks 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 i'm done with dynamics. I want it to be 18 degrees at onset. no cold air sucksOne day we’ll see a cold smoke storm again. But yeesh it’s been a while. If our January storms hadn’t happened outside of prime daylight hours the burbs might be at 0” this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 6z gfs does some weird phasing capture thing which technically gives some of us blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 4 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: One day we’ll see a cold smoke storm again. But yeesh it’s been a while. If our January storms hadn’t happened outside of prime daylight hours the burbs might be at 0” this year. That second January storm was the closest thing to cold smoke imby. Temp never got above 28 if I remember correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 We are so due for a classic Gulf and up the coast with temps in the 20s throughout and I was convinced we'd get one at some point this winter with the nino. The clock is starting to run out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 We’d better not be finished for the season. Still keeping an eye on Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Friday definitely has potential. If we get rain in a 986 off ORF the week of PD, that says a lot… maybe we will this one in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 14 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Friday definitely has potential. If we get rain in a 986 off ORF the week of PD, that says a lot… maybe we will this one in If this psuhoffman storm ends up anything like the 2011 psuhoffman storm then I’ll be happy to call it a winter. As I recall that one also initially looked rainy but then had great dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 So far LWX is leaning on the gfs over the euro, but it’s wide open now given recent model performance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 As we quickly move forward into late Thursday, Thursday night and even into Friday, there remains a timing and track discrepancy between the models with a more vigorous low pressure system. The GFS still wants to bring a low pressure system across our region and spread rain showers throughout. The Euro wants to delay the low pressure system until more of Friday and shunt it farther to the south near the Virginia and North Carolina border. The GFS would translate to mainly rain, while the Euro opens up the option of some wintry weather. For now, the flavor is rain and timing more so on Thursday. There is a moderate confidence that higher elevations in the Appalachians and Blue Ridge and perhaps along the Mason-Dixon border could encounter some snow or a wintry mix. Temperatures on Friday look to be cooler for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 So far LWX is leaning on the gfs over the euro, but it’s wide open now given recent model performance Is this the 5-8 inches nws? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 7 minutes ago, Fozz said: If this psuhoffman storm ends up anything like the 2011 psuhoffman storm then I’ll be happy to call it a winter. As I recall that one also initially looked rainy but then had great dynamics. Irony is the tactic I used to identify that storm doesn’t work as often anymore. Back then I was simply hunting for a major h5 amplification to our south. I used a “rule” that in a split flow blocking regime you typically see a system exit with about the same amplitude and latitude as it entered the CONUS. So I identified that we likely would get a fairly amplified h5 low to track just under us and went hard for snow regardless of marginal temps. That method doesn’t work now. The last few I identified that way ended up just being perfect track (h5 anyways) rainstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, psuhoffman said: I know my kids have a really nice sand box but would you please get your head out of it. lol. Even on a nice wintry morning you are still exhausting to deal with. PS. Thanks for not rebutting anything in my post 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 8 minutes ago, Ji said: Is this the 5-8 inches nws? Well, that means we still have a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Yeah I’m calling it for the metros, DC busted hard. Above climo is not happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Remember we have a thread for this! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Remember we have a thread for this! This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 So does anyone want to talk about the actual storm possibility this weekend? Or more babar talk. ....Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 4 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: So does anyone want to talk about the actual storm possibility this weekend? Or more babar talk. .... Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk All ensembles show a mslp track to our north and west, at least at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 I said we should all just wait until this weekend to see if we would be tracking something. Well, here we are. It's time to call it yall 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I said we should all just wait until this weekend to see if we would be tracking something. Well, here we are. It's time to call it yall I absolutely agree. And then that will get the reverse jinx thing going of course! Do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I said we should all just wait until this weekend to see if we would be tracking something. Well, here we are. It's time to call it yall We’re calling the whole thing? That’s it…no it’s mid latter Feb and a leap year…plenty o chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 I said we should all just wait until this weekend to see if we would be tracking something. Well, here we are. It's time to call it yallAren’t we sorta tracking next weekend? It’s a long shot but there is something there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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