Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How much does a ski trip out west cost?

Like TSG said it depends on lots of factors... I know a lot of hacks that help keep the cost down.  I have southwest account and charge everything I do then use points so I usually fly "free".  Otherwise a regular flight from Baltimore to Denver is going to cost you about 300-600 depending on when you book and what airline you use.    If you want to stay right at the mountains it can get very pricy, but there are cheaper options.  For Winter Park for instance you can save a lot if you stay 30 mins away in the town of Granby instead of at Winter Park.  Then you can find a decent place for 100 a night v the 250+ you're going to spend to stay closer to the mountain.  If you ever have a specific place in mind I could give you a better idea what the options are and what the likely cost would be.  

[dallen7908]

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Like TSG said it depends on lots of factors... I know a lot of hacks that help keep the cost down.  I have southwest account and charge everything I do then use points so I usually fly "free".  Otherwise a regular flight from Baltimore to Denver is going to cost you about 300-600 depending on when you book and what airline you use.    If you want to stay right at the mountains it can get very pricy, but there are cheaper options.  For Winter Park for instance you can save a lot if you stay 30 mins away in the town of Granby instead of at Winter Park.  Then you can find a decent place for 100 a night v the 250+ you're going to spend to stay closer to the mountain.  If you ever have a specific place in mind I could give you a better idea what the options are and what the likely cost would be.  

I occasionally stay at the YMCA of the Rockies in Granby when XC skiing at Devil's Thumb, Breckenridge, Frisco, or Snow Mountain Ranch. 

[uncletim]

9 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How much does a ski trip out west cost?

(Getting off-topic here, mods please move this to banter if appropriate…)

Here’s the the operative question: do you ski at all - and by “ski” in this case, I mean downhill as opposed to x-country? Have you ever been skiing? If you haven’t, and I get the feeling that’s the case, then I think many members of this forum, including me, would be happy to give advice on the best approach to getting started. Skiers tend to be evangelists for the sport, and the thing we most want to avoid is for first-timers to have a bad first day and get turned off, which can easily happen. Having a fun first day, even if you’re falling all over the place, is the key. 

[dallen7908]

[dailylurker]

1 hour ago, uncletim said:

(Getting off-topic here, mods please move this to banter if appropriate…)

Here’s the the operative question: do you ski at all - and by “ski” in this case, I mean downhill as opposed to x-country? Have you ever been skiing? If you haven’t, and I get the feeling that’s the case, then I think many members of this forum, including me, would be happy to give advice on the best approach to getting started. Skiers tend to be evangelists for the sport, and the thing we most want to avoid is for first-timers to have a bad first day and get turned off, which can easily happen. Having a fun first day, even if you’re falling all over the place, is the key. 

I went to the top of Whiteface Mountain NY, the first time I went skiing. I almost died in the -12 degree temp and -46 degree windchill, and whiteout conditions. I had a bad time and loved it. Ski patrol and my parents weren't so happy lol. I was probably 13.

[BristowWx]

It’s pretty amazing how this winter ended up.  As bad as I could imagine this was worse.  Take out that one good week in Jan and it has to rank as top 3 worst ever. Maybe not snow depth but overall winter feeling.  My house is literally hot today.  See you guys in Nov.  cheers and god bless! 

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, BristowWx said:

It’s pretty amazing how this winter ended up.  As bad as I could imagine this was worse.  Take out that one good week in Jan and it has to rank as top 3 worst ever. Maybe not snow depth but overall winter feeling.  My house is literally hot today.  See you guys in Nov.  cheers and god bless! 

Glass half full- we had a period with 2 snow events a few days apart, in the heart of winter. Snow on snow (here at least). There was a deep winter feel for 10 days. With a bit of luck/better wave timing, it could have easily been better. We had nothing like that last winter. Expectations were too high, as usual. We suck way more than not when it comes to snow, regardless of Enso state. As for the seasonal/extended models and the persistently epic h5 looks depicted, lesson learned. Boilerplate warm ENSO. Lets remember that as we transition into a Nina, and we see consistently shitty looks advertised by the same models for next winter.

[Eskimo Joe]

27 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Glass half full- we had a period with 2 snow events a few days apart, in the heart of winter. Snow on snow (here at least). There was a deep winter feel for 10 days. With a bit of luck/better wave timing, it could have easily been better. We had nothing like that last winter. Expectations were too high, as usual. We suck way more than not when it comes to snow, regardless of Enso state. As for the seasonal models and the persistently epic h5 looks depicted, lesson learned. Boilerplate warm ENSO. Lets remember that as we transition into a Nina, and we see consistently shitty looks advertised by the same models for next winter.

I was hoping for at least climo with a nice areawide 6-10" event. At least we got something.

[Jebman]

OK folks, I deleted my post, I was so happy about Winter Park's snow stake I forgot this is the long range thread. Sorry. You can find the post in Discussion Obs.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 3/12/2024 at 9:50 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The Pacific pattern actually changes this weekend, and sometimes when we have cold the day of (warm the day of too), models go more aggressive on the same pattern initialized out down the road. 

With that being said, it is 70 degrees out the next 2 days, and the PDO still has not changed, so the same model trend that has occurred all Winter has a chance to repeat in the next few days, going not as aggressive with the cold in the LR.. 

Yup, two warm days, and the LR look for significantly below average/-NAO is gone.. 

Models initialize current conditions out. For example, if they are saying the LR is going to be severely cold, and first you have two 70+ degrees, you should figure that during those two days the LR models are going to completely lose the cold signal. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We may be headed for an above average Spring.. I know that's not saying much, but.. 

since the AMO went positive/PDO went negative ~1995 here are our top analogs to this composite since Jan 23rd:

Positive analogs: 2023, 2020, 2017, 2012, 2000, 1999, 1998

Negative analogs: 2015, 2014, 2007, 2003, 1996, 1995

^13 years since 1995... 

Roll-forward to April:

 

April through July:

[Terpeast]

Repeat of last years canada wildfires? 

[Interstate]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Repeat of last years canada wildfires? 

They are still burning I believe

[Maestrobjwa]

On 3/13/2024 at 12:04 PM, uncletim said:

(Getting off-topic here, mods please move this to banter if appropriate…)

Here’s the the operative question: do you ski at all - and by “ski” in this case, I mean downhill as opposed to x-country? Have you ever been skiing? If you haven’t, and I get the feeling that’s the case, then I think many members of this forum, including me, would be happy to give advice on the best approach to getting started. Skiers tend to be evangelists for the sport, and the thing we most want to avoid is for first-timers to have a bad first day and get turned off, which can easily happen. Having a fun first day, even if you’re falling all over the place, is the key. 

I have never been skiing...I'm not sure I've ever been in any kind of elevation at all, actually. So I'd be a complete novice! I am not at all athletic, and balance is a bit questionable...but it's something I'd be willing to dip my toe in (although given the prices mentioned here...a trip out west ain't happening any time soon, lol)

[snownut]

41 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I have never been skiing...I'm not sure I've ever been in any kind of elevation at all, actually. So I'd be a complete novice! I am not at all athletic, and balance is a bit questionable...but it's something I'd be willing to dip my toe in (although given the prices mentioned here...a trip out west ain't happening any time soon, lol)

Snowshoeing, dog sledding and snowmobiling are options here through mid-April or longer. Lower cost and Zero experience is needed.  

US Olympic Cross Country team trains here in the late spring because it's nearly 100% there will be snowpack and trails.  

Had some pretty amazing winters during my 47 years living in the mid-Atlantic.

 However.. My  10th winter here in the Oregon high country has been a great choice with amazing winters. Not looking forward to being mostly in VA during retired years but end of the day family is most important… nice snowpack is a close second.;)

 

 

[WxUSAF]

0z euro with a cherry blossom-nuking series of hard freezes late next week. 

[North Balti Zen]

36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

0z euro with a cherry blossom-nuking series of hard freezes late next week. 

You can set your clock by that anymore. Late useless cold. Feels like part of the new longer term pattern. 

[mdhokie]

Looks like a muddy wet spring? 

[nj2va]

Looks like awful weather the rest of the month.  Yippee.

[Eskimo Joe]

14 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Looks like awful weather the rest of the month.  Yippee.

20 years ago it'd be snow.

[Maestrobjwa]

7 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

You can set your clock by that anymore. Late useless cold. Feels like part of the new longer term pattern. 

This is the part of this new...whatever it is I don't get: Why is it that these late freezes have become more prevalent while the winters have been warmer? Although I think @psuhoffman said the Springs aren't getting cooler by the numbers...but why then are we seeing this more? Like...shouldn't a warmer background mean this doesn't happen as much? Make it make sense, lol

[Kmlwx]

24 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This is the part of this new...whatever it is I don't get: Why is it that these late freezes have become more prevalent while the winters have been warmer? Although I think @psuhoffman said the Springs aren't getting cooler by the numbers...but why then are we seeing this more? Like...shouldn't a warmer background mean this doesn't happen as much? Make it make sense, lol

Well one thing is you can have a hard freeze or two and then have 20 degree plus departures and the averages will look like the freezes never happened. 

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This is the part of this new...whatever it is I don't get: Why is it that these late freezes have become more prevalent while the winters have been warmer? Although I think @psuhoffman said the Springs aren't getting cooler by the numbers...but why then are we seeing this more? Like...shouldn't a warmer background mean this doesn't happen as much? Make it make sense, lol

Transient cold shots(relatively speaking) in late March into April are pretty common. Freezing temps probably don't occur as often, but it still happens. None of this is as simple as you would like it to be.

[stormy]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This is the part of this new...whatever it is I don't get: Why is it that these late freezes have become more prevalent while the winters have been warmer? Although I think @psuhoffman said the Springs aren't getting cooler by the numbers...but why then are we seeing this more? Like...shouldn't a warmer background mean this doesn't happen as much? Make it make sense, lol

You are wise to question theory through observation.

50 years ago the accepted last frost date for my region west of the BR was May 10...

Today, horticultural experts have moved the last frost date to May 15.

In the fall the first frost date usually comes 10 days later than 50 years ago.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Transient cold shots(relatively speaking) in late March into April are pretty common. Freezing temps probably don't occur as often, but it still happens. None of this is as simple as you would like it to be.

Not sure I want it to be simple...but just to make some kind of sense! I'm still not 100% past irony of the whole warmer planet but cooler ENSO thing, but at least when you mention trade wind things makes that make more sense to this layman (wind blowing on water making it cooler=something that makes sense)

But to your point about the transient cold shots being common...so you're in the thinking that it's not happening more than it used to, but it just feels that way?

[CAPE]

55 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not sure I want it to be simple...but just to make some kind of sense! I'm still not 100% past irony of the whole warmer planet but cooler ENSO thing, but at least when you mention trade wind things makes that make more sense to this layman (wind blowing on water making it cooler=something that makes sense)

But to your point about the transient cold shots being common...so you're in the thinking that it's not happening more than it used to, but it just feels that way?

No. This isn't arbitrary. You need to read more. Google can be your friend, as long as you don't fall prey to disinformation. Plenty of that available on the subject.

[wxdude64]

23 hours ago, snownut said:

Snowshoeing, dog sledding and snowmobiling are options here through mid-April or longer. Lower cost and Zero experience is needed.  

US Olympic Cross Country team trains here in the late spring because it's nearly 100% there will be snowpack and trails.  

Had some pretty amazing winters during my 47 years living in the mid-Atlantic.

 However.. My  10th winter here in the Oregon high country has been a great choice with amazing winters. Not looking forward to being mostly in VA during retired years but end of the day family is most important… nice snowpack is a close second.;)

 

 

Yep. I've given up skiing years ago. However, I still LOVE cold and snow. Snowshoeing, snowmobiling and just general outside hiking are things I like to do now. I managed to get my deeper snow 'fix' being in Park City couple weeks ago. 

[Maestrobjwa]

On 3/16/2024 at 7:03 PM, CAPE said:

No. This isn't arbitrary. You need to read more. Google can be your friend, as long as you don't fall prey to disinformation. Plenty of that available on the subject.

When people say "Google is your friend" I find it to be a bit condescending, like somebody saying you were too dumb to look into something. But maybe I'm making too much of it (probably, lol)

In this hobby/obsession, I find that sometimes I'm not even sure exactly what TO Google to find something. If it were a general guide that said "For this, try these sites. For that, try those sites", it may help. Finding a temperature for a particular day, or what the snow totals were for a particular year is easy enough...but beyond that it's less clear where to go for stuff. 

For example, where do I find charts that are easy to see the trend of temperatures for a particular month? For a specific thing like that I wouldn't know where to start.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not sure I want it to be simple...but just to make some kind of sense! I'm still not 100% past irony of the whole warmer planet but cooler ENSO thing, but at least when you mention trade wind things makes that make more sense to this layman (wind blowing on water making it cooler=something that makes sense)

But to your point about the transient cold shots being common...so you're in the thinking that it's not happening more than it used to, but it just feels that way?

The transient cold shots are normal. What’s not normal is effortlessly running the temp up to 80 degrees on any random winter day in between.

[uncletim]

On 3/15/2024 at 10:46 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

I have never been skiing...I'm not sure I've ever been in any kind of elevation at all, actually. So I'd be a complete novice! I am not at all athletic, and balance is a bit questionable...but it's something I'd be willing to dip my toe in (although given the prices mentioned here...a trip out west ain't happening any time soon, lol)

OK, if you want to give downhill a try, here's my advice, which others I'm sure can add to. Don't go out west just to try to ski. It's pricey, to say the least, and you may find you really don't like it. Maybe the first thing you should do is - find someone to go with. Not many people just make a decision on their own to go by themselves and start skiing - most have friends or family and it's a lot more fun. The other person or people don't even have to be skiers, which might be even better because you're all in the same boat trying something new. It may seem obvious, but take a lesson. Ski resorts have instructors that specialize in "never-evers" of all ages. The first time, it's probably best to just go locally to Liberty, Roundtop or Whitetail. You absolutely do not have to make a major trip to a "big resort". If you have flexibility, try to pick a sunny but cold, calm day. Unfortunately, as we have all discussed here ad nauseam, these are getting rarer and rarer around here. You don't need to buy any equipment or even clothing in advance, everything you need can be rented at the slopes in a package. If you really want to see snow cover, you can go by car to northern New England, but what will happen when you are there is still a bit of a crapshoot. Last year during 3 days in March in Vermont, we had 37 inches of snow. This year first week in March it rained almost every day, but fortunately not all the time, so we still skied. And Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine are beautiful places in the winter with plenty of other activities. If you find downhill is not for you, you can do X-country, which is a lot easier and cheaper just to "go out and do it".

And don't let a "not athletic" self-image deter you. I started in my 30s and no one has ever called me "athletic". I may not be very good, but I think being out in the mountains in the winter is magic. My father started after he retired in his 60s and went many times to New England and even out west. Had a great time with it for years.