Weather Will Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There are hints that perhaps there could be more arctic air involved in the pattern after March 20 or so...but so much would have to go perfectly at that point for it to matter. There is a reason there are VERY few examples of significant snow that late in the DC Baltimore area. For places with higher elevations, you know who you are, there are somewhat better chances late March and early April. Damn you just jinxed it!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 WHERE.WAS.THAT.RIDGE.ALL.WINTER?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 WB 12Z EPS control at end of run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 45 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: IF there were to be a weird late season event, this would be the pattern needed to get it done thats peppermint patty mint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 57 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: IF there were to be a weird late season event, this would be the pattern needed to get it done There is nothing wrong with the pattern...its the date and the fact there isn't really any cold air to start with anywhere that makes me skeptical. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is nothing wrong with the pattern...its the date and the fact there isn't really any cold air to start with anywhere that makes me skeptical. March 58 bro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 59 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: WHERE.WAS.THAT.RIDGE.ALL.WINTER?! 10-15 days out at least 12 times a week.. so no different from the fantasy map he posted, which of course will change completely within 24 hours. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 2 minutes ago, Yeoman said: 10-15 days out at least 12 times a week.. so no different from the fantasy map he posted, which of course will change completely within 24 hours. i dont think this one is changing. In fact, the signal is getting better as we get closer. Kind of the opposite of February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 this is for @CAPEwho is only interested in chasing mosquitos now 3 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Watch us get some insane late March paste bomb that gets everyone to climo. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 7 minutes ago, Ji said: this is for @CAPEwho is only interested in chasing mosquitos now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 9 minutes ago, Ji said: i dont think this one is changing. In fact, the signal is getting better as we get closer. Kind of the opposite of February ahh you're right.. 14 days out is the sweet spot for model accuracy 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 20 minutes ago, Ji said: i dont think this one is changing. In fact, the signal is getting better as we get closer. Kind of the opposite of February Nah, he's right. The signal was getting better and better as we were closing in and then the bottom just fell out. So yeah, he's right...second verse, same as the first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 43 minutes ago, Ji said: this is for @CAPEwho is only interested in chasing mosquitos now One is reality, the other fantasy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 As I said many days ago, I am done chasing modeled epic h5 patterns at this juncture. If there is a legit signal for a snow event for the lowlands inside 7 days, I will show some interest. Unlikely, but not impossible. Btw, 'lowlands' includes you too Ji. 350 feet? lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 1 hour ago, Ji said: March 58 bro Here is the problem….even if todays great looks are correct the pattern is setting it a week too late. That wave around the 19-20 has no cold in front to work with. So it’s very unlikely to be a big snow at lower elevations. The boundary is a mess. It would take an incredibly anomalous event. Possible not likely. After that it gets colder but history suggests that’s too late. March 20 is really the limit. There have been a handful of significant snows as late as around March 20. But after only one in the last 100 years and it was a crazy weird inverted trough event. Pure statistical probabilities says after March 20 the odds of a significant snowstorm near DC is too low to worry about until it’s right on top of us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 @brooklynwx99 I’d be a lot more excited if I was around NYC. They get way more post March 20 snow events that we do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 [mention=9996]brooklynwx99[/mention] I’d be a lot more excited if I was around NYC. They get way more post March 20 snow events that we do. I’d rather live where you live vs nyc for snow anytime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 2 minutes ago, Ji said: I’d rather live where you live vs nyc for snow anytime Mt PSU can expect snow through most of April lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 8 minutes ago, Ji said: I’d rather live where you live vs nyc for snow anytime This is true every time except after March 20. Once you get really late in the year there is a limit to how far south the true arctic boundary typically sets up. And the elevation dependent marginal events south of that boundary tend to become above 2k to 3k once you get that late. It’s too late for a pure stj wave to work anymore. And there is a history of some NS waves bombing and clipping NYC north late in the season but I’m too far southwest for those. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: WHERE.WAS.THAT.RIDGE.ALL.WINTER?! 10 Days away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 6 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: IF there were to be a weird late season event, this would be the pattern needed to get it done Is that the Sistene Chapel pattern? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 7 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Watch us get some insane late March paste bomb that gets everyone to climo. I am now ALL IN If it's snow for the Mid Atlantic then I am all for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChillinIt Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 hour ago, IronTy said: Is that the Sistene Chapel pattern? Yep Epic cold rains....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 6 hours ago, CAPE said: As I said many days ago, I am done chasing modeled epic h5 patterns at this juncture. If there is a legit signal for a snow event for the lowlands inside 7 days, I will show some interest. Unlikely, but not impossible. Btw, 'lowlands' includes you too Ji. 350 feet? lol lol i have more elevation than Ji and I live in the city 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6 Author Share Posted March 6 No posts. Pretty much tells me that any potential for mid month on is shot. No need to look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: No posts. Pretty much tells me that any potential for mid month on is shot. No need to look We may hit 70 next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 18 minutes ago, Terpeast said: We may hit 70 next week Bring it on. Ji and WW are chasing a mirage. I admire the tenacity but simple logic say that pattern changes take a while. It’s gonna put us into late March. Battling that dreaded sun angle. We’re done, but i ain’t mad at them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Bring it on. Ji and WW are chasing a mirage. I admire the tenacity but simple logic say that pattern changes take a while. It’s gonna put us into late March. Battling that dreaded sun angle. We’re done, but i ain’t mad at them. im only looking at the March 18-21 window....after that---the pattern change to cold looks-----no so cold anymore lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 hour ago, Ji said: im only looking at the March 18-21 window....after that---the pattern change to cold looks-----no so cold anymore lol PSU, tell him "that just won't get it done" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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