Terpeast Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 1 minute ago, Heisy said: I’m out of the loop, does the OP euro not exist anymore? Pivotal only has this new version, check this H5 look it has for 6z run . They discontinued the op and now consider the control run as the new op. The AIFS is their new AI-based model. Will be interesting to see how it performs. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 They discontinued the op and now consider the control run as the new op. The AIFS is their new AI-based model. Will be interesting to see how it performs. Ah I see thanks. Not a bad setup, ha, would need that 50/50 a little farther S. I’m still checking in here and there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Meh second glance there’s no cold air really so would need a miracle track . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 13 minutes ago, Heisy said: Meh second glance there’s no cold air really so would need a miracle track . Yeah, its over. Not enough cold air to make something happen outside of interier northern New England or maybe at 3,000+ Don’t worry, I’ll stick around for severe weather season! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Happy you guys saw the snow you did this year. A couple overperformers down / over there IIRC? At least a significant improvement to last year! I walked away with 11 on the season in my location in coastal NJ, which I consider a miracle given the warm character of the winter. Very lucky to get the brief wintry reprieves that we did. I know the assumed variables heading into next winter are looking unfavorable and am not challenging that, but lately I’m hoping a Niña can give the East coast a chance at slightly colder temperature profiles if we can snag a period of -EPO which still seems to work well enough for most of us. Expectations will be low, but hoping we can luck into a Jan 22 type period that hopefully is rewarding for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 11 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Happy you guys saw the snow you did this year. A couple overperformers down / over there IIRC? At least a significant improvement to last year! I walked away with 11 on the season in my location in coastal NJ, Um, our snow totals were kinda shit. The bar cannot be in comparison to a historically awful year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 9 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Um, our snow totals were kinda shit. The bar cannot be in comparison to a historically awful year. My point was at least something fell on multiple occasions, for such an ugly warm winter I’d take that as a small victory. That’s all. Meant well. Been pulling for you guys to get crushed, it’s long overdue as we know acutely well. My nephew lives in Cockeysville MD now for grad school, and this was his first winter there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Euro is looking wet over the next 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Do we know when gfs will start showing snow and cold in the March 15-30 window? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 37 minutes ago, Ji said: Do we know when gfs will start showing snow and cold in the March 15-30 window? On March 32nd. 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Book that cabin in Arroostook County for March 15-18 and enjoying tracking the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Crazy at work today, but we are looking for the ensembles to be showing a transition to a very cold week leading into Easter; actually the control run today at Day 15 is trying to show it. Again, long shot but not impossible to see something leading into Easter. Latest weekly extended control has a storm...(WB) 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Looks like another 2 inches of rain here tonight through Wed, followed by more rain this weekend. Oh joy. Combined with the mild temps, the mosquito larvicide will need to go in a couple weeks sooner than ever before. This is some real, actual tangible weather impacts worth discussing. Not some silly ass control run snow map for late March that has absolutely zero chance of verifying. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Enough with the snow fantasies. We rain. Until we drought. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: Looks like another 2 inches of rain here tonight through Wed, followed by more rain this weekend. Oh joy. Combined with the mild temps, the mosquito larvicide will need to go in a couple weeks sooner than ever before. This is some real, actual tangible weather impacts worth discussing. Not some silly ass control run snow map for late March that have absolutely zero chance of verifying. Agreed...everybody just needs to move the fuck on 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Agreed...everybody just needs to move the fuck on Yeah, I have moved on to a 120. Only 1 left after this. Now that's a situation that demands some attention. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 You wanted a nino so..:: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 8 hours ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, its over. Not enough cold air to make something happen outside of interier northern New England or maybe at 3,000+ Don’t worry, I’ll stick around for severe weather season! I am very surprised that a supposed professional would say its over on March 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 1 minute ago, Ji said: You wanted a nino so..:: I wanted a Modoki with - -AO/NAO. This wasn't that. Not even close. We may never know if a 2009-10 Nino could produce anything close today. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 7 minutes ago, stormy said: I am very surprised that a supposed professional would say its over on March 4. Are you questioning his legitimacy as a meteorologist? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: Crazy at work today, but we are looking for the ensembles to be showing a transition to a very cold week leading into Easter; actually the control run today at Day 15 is trying to show it. Again, long shot but not impossible to see something leading into Easter. Latest weekly extended control has a storm...(WB) It's over. Really, talk about upcoming hurricane season. Atlantic Ocean is very warm already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Are you questioning his legitimacy as a meteorologist? "Supposed professional". Sure sounds like it. Not cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Yeah, I have moved on to a 120. Only 1 left after this. Now that's a situation that demands some attention. I have two left 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Not giving up until the models do another 180 like they did for late February. But this time is different ...the ensembles and extended guidance are more in sync. What do I mean by that....the gradual return to cold ( I know it may not be cold enough, is showing up late in the ensemble runs. The EPO is tanking and the other teleconnections are lining up as we end the third week of March which could give us the Arctic air we need, The extended EPS snow mean, not control, keeps increasing (WB). Latest run compared to 13 runs ago. And the MJO is moving into less hostile phases.Will it happen, probably not, but I am not completely crazy; will be the first to admit when Lucy strikes again and kills it. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Genuine lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Not giving up until the models do another 180 like they did for late February. But this time is different ...the ensembles and extended guidance are more in sync. What do I mean by that....the gradual return to cold ( I know it may not be cold enough, is showing up late in the ensemble runs. The EPO is tanking and the other teleconnections are lining up as we end the third week of March which could give us the Arctic air we need, The extended EPS snow mean, not control, keeps increasing (WB). Latest run compared to 13 runs ago. And the MJO is moving into less hostile phases.Will it happen, probably not, but I am not completely crazy; will be the first to admit when Lucy strikes again and kills it. Alright WW be honest...is this a "Don't quit until the final out" mentality except for snow? That's the only thing that makes sense...so...why? (You're not gonna answer this are you? Lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Alright WW be honest...is this a "Don't quit until the final out" mentality except for snow? That's the only thing that makes sense...so...why? (You're not gonna answer this are you? Lol) I am being sincere..., I know a late March snow would be an historic event, but it can happen. Oh and I am no troll, only trolls I know are in Tolkien land.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 I’m with will. If the models are showing a winter pattern and there is a chance….im still tracking The rest of you all can eat dirt lol 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 30 minutes ago, Ji said: I’m with will. If the models are showing a winter pattern and there is a chance….im still tracking The rest of you all can eat dirt lol The rest of us just don't care at this point. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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