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Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

6z GFS snows on us on the 11th. 0z was close.

ALEET ALEET… The 6z GFS is not listening to the “it’s never gonna snow again” crowd.

Might as well post the maps for next Sunday night just so everyone can dissect why it’s impossible…

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6z GFS depicts a significant piece of NS energy dropping southward as the ridge amplifies- that interacts with energy in the flow underneath and induces a strong surface low right at the coast. Very convoluted as this occurs as the initial Miller B transfer to a coastal low is occurring. Ends up with 3 lows.

1710093600-7m4T35roqRE.png

 

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28 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

ALEET ALEET… The 6z GFS is not listening to the “it’s never gonna snow again” crowd.

Might as well post the maps for next Sunday night just so everyone can dissect why it’s impossible…

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That’s beautiful :arrowhead:

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I don’t think we’re in a drought anymore, Will. 

I’m ready for sunny 60s/70s. Let’s see what severe weather season brings. Summer likely to be hotter and drier than the last few. 

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6 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I would think the safe bet would be Lake Tahoe LOL..... I would pick that area. 

Safe bet yes, and a very expensive one at that. If it’s possible to get a last minute deal at Tahoe, I’m all ears. 

otoh, I can go to Spokane for basically free using points, and if I chase to the cascades, it’ll probably be half the cost of Tahoe anyway

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13 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I would think the safe bet would be Lake Tahoe LOL..... I would pick that area. 

 

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Safe bet yes, and a very expensive one at that. If it’s possible to get a last minute deal at Tahoe, I’m all ears. 

otoh, I can go to Spokane for basically free using points, and if I chase to the cascades, it’ll probably be half the cost of Tahoe anyway

Depends what your goal is. If you just want to see the most snow during a dump then the Tahoe or Mammoth Lakes areas are best. But yes more expensive but for be the biggest issue is it’s also very windy which imo can make heavy snow less aesthetically pleasing.  but it also means everything closes including ski resorts. 
 

For me if I’m going out west I want to combine my snow chase with a ski trip. Jackson Hole is a nice town in a snowstorm.  Was in Revelstoke when they got like 20” over a few years back. Steamboat is the best Colorado ski town for a snowstorm where they get a lot of snow in town also. 
 

But honestly if you just want a snowstorm chase, at some point there will be a big snow in northern New England. If you like tracking the storm and using radar to pin down a heavy band during..that’s a better bet. Out west it’s all topography and radar is useless. 

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Depends what your goal is. If you just want to see the most snow during a dump then the Tahoe or Mammoth Lakes areas are best. But yes more expensive but for be the biggest issue is it’s also very windy which imo can make heavy snow less aesthetically pleasing.  but it also means everything closes including ski resorts. 
 

For me if I’m going out west I want to combine my snow chase with a ski trip. Jackson Hole is a nice town in a snowstorm.  Was in Revelstoke when they got like 20” over a few years back. Steamboat is the best Colorado ski town for a snowstorm where they get a lot of snow in town also. 
 

But honestly if you just want a snowstorm chase, at some point there will be a big snow in northern New England. If you like tracking the storm and using radar to pin down a heavy band during..that’s a better bet. Out west it’s all topography and radar is useless. 

If it were just me, I’d do a pure snow chase with a last minute drive up to new england the night before. 

But with the family, probably best to combine with something else like visiting family and/or a ski trip. Some stuff for kids to do, too.

Love Steamboat, but been there 3x. Feels like been there done that want something new.  

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5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If it were just me, I’d do a pure snow chase with a last minute drive up to new england the night before. 

But with the family, probably best to combine with something else like visiting family and/or a ski trip. Some stuff for kids to do, too.

Love Steamboat, but been there 3x. Feels like been there done that want something new.  

If the kids ski, something to keep in mind Copper Colorado is the best western resort I think for beginners and mixed ability levels because the mountain progresses from beginner to expert right to left looking at the mountain.  And it’s one of the few big mountains where they have a lot of top to bottom runs for beginners.  It’s also close to the towns of Frisco, Dillon Breckenridge and  Vail and not too far from Denver.   And if you want to hit up more than one mountain Winter Park and A basin are within reasonable drives and all 3 are on the ikon pass.  Definitely get some kind of pass the window rates are outrageous!  
 

It doesn’t get the most snow. About 300” a year. Some places out west are over 400. But if you’re planning ahead for a set week anywhere out west above like 7000 feet will have a lot of snow on the ground.  

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6 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

ALEET ALEET… The 6z GFS is not listening to the “it’s never gonna snow again” crowd.

Might as well post the maps for next Sunday night just so everyone can dissect why it’s impossible…

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I dont recall anyone saying it wasnt going to snow again in central PA. Dont you guys have your own subforum for discussing such things?

Edit: Oh yeah you do. Here I will help you out:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/25-philadelphia-region/

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33 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I dont recall anyone saying it wasnt going to snow again in central PA. Dont you guys have your own subforum for discussing such things?

Edit: Oh yeah you do. Here I will help you out:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/25-philadelphia-region/

Lol, I would not have posted in here if that run showed only snow in PA & no snow in MD. I’m not that kind of poster. 

It’s not my first day on here…

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3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, I would not have posted in here if that run showed only snow in PA & no snow in MD. I’m not that kind of poster. 

It’s not my first day on here…

regardless of the snow maps temps aren’t supportive of accumulating snow for 90% of this region.  And that’s on the typically coldest model!  

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Note the indications of more NS involvement showing up evident from the blue extending into central Canada. I said that bothered me when I saw it showing up a few weeks ago and it was the first step to the pattern breaking down. That increased NS involvement eventually screwed with the -nao.  It’s showing up again at the same lead time in the same way.

IMG_1770.thumb.png.5d49d46db5e1403d5e5d6a5fd48238ee.png

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Note the indications of more NS involvement showing up evident from the blue extending into central Canada. I said that bothered me when I saw it showing up a few weeks ago and it was the first step to the pattern breaking down. That increased NS involvement eventually screwed with the -nao.  It’s showing up again at the same lead time in the same way.
IMG_1770.thumb.png.5d49d46db5e1403d5e5d6a5fd48238ee.png

Where is that are we ever getting an arctic high pressure ever again thread?
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Note the indications of more NS involvement showing up evident from the blue extending into central Canada. I said that bothered me when I saw it showing up a few weeks ago and it was the first step to the pattern breaking down. That increased NS involvement eventually screwed with the -nao.  It’s showing up again at the same lead time in the same way.
IMG_1770.thumb.png.5d49d46db5e1403d5e5d6a5fd48238ee.png

At this point we are looking for one snowstorm…not a 3 week pattern change !
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