cbmclean Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Something that's been bothering me though the last few days...the EPS wants to retrograde the NAO ridge very quickly and it ends up centered pretty far south in Canada...that used to work, but in recent years when that happens it's just been linking up with the mid latitude ridges which neutralizes the suppressive benefits of the -NAO. Just something to look out for here. On top of the fact its going to be late March by the time cold makes its way east. Maybe we can manage a miserable cold, wet Easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 29 Author Share Posted February 29 47 minutes ago, stormy said: I agree, If this verifies as presented, reposition that 1029 HP sw to Ontario as 1036 and things could work out. Yeah and while we are at it let’s create a 1040 over Michigan and a 985 over the outer banks. As long as we are just making up shit 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 the AIFS Euro model runs 4x a day up to 15 days lol.... so far from observing it....its Dr No on steroids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 where is the euro taking this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 2 minutes ago, Ji said: where is the euro taking this? Pittsburg 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Pittsburg the cold air on the map is pitiful man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 1 minute ago, Ji said: the cold air on the map is pitiful man I hadn't noticed 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I hadn't noticed i hope Westminster has some other nice things 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Yeah and while we are at it let’s create a 1040 over Michigan and a 985 over the outer banks. As long as we are just making up shit That 1040 over Michigan would be ok with a 977 over Norfolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 end of EPS showing a much improved Pacific but canada is still a torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 3 minutes ago, Ji said: end of EPS showing a much improved Pacific but canada is still a torch Are you ok? Do you need help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Just now, psuhoffman said: Are you ok? Do you need help? Im still hanging on to March 18-21 1958....the EPS is going to get us there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Im still hanging on to March 18-21 1958....the EPS is going to get us there well it has a -NAO, MONSTER 50/50, perfect pacific, central pac trough, PNA ridge... just don't look at the temps TORCH lol #itjustdoesntmatter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: well it has a -NAO, MONSTER 50/50, perfect pacific, central pac trough, PNA ridge... just don't look at the temps TORCH lol #itjustdoesntmatter we just need time to cool the source regions like we did in Late December/early January. Be patient! March 21st is 22 days away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 6 minutes ago, Ji said: we just need time to cool the source regions like we did in Late December/early January. Be patient! March 21st is 22 days away! That run takes us through March 15. And the whole continent is still torched...it took 2 weeks to fix that problem in mid winter...what is your timeline here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 @Ji even this isn’t enough to get snow even close to us. Other than above 3000 ft the snow is all north of the PA/NY line! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Head to the Sierra.... (CNN) Snowfall rates are expected to reach extreme levels of 3 to 5 inches an hour from Friday through Saturday – especially along the Sierra Nevada. The prolonged extreme snowfall means 6 to 10 feet of snow could bury parts of the Sierra in just a matter of two to three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Ji even this isn’t enough to get snow even close to us. Other than above 3000 ft the snow is all north of the PA/NY line! then wtf are we doing here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 1 minute ago, Ji said: then wtf are we doing here? We used to think the same thing about the poor schmucks in NC or SC that would track patterns and we knew even if everything went perfect it probably still wasn’t going to snow there. We’re those schmucks now. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 18 minutes ago, Ji said: then wtf are we doing here? I’m tracking my April ski season in VT. Dunno what you’re doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We used to think the same thing about the poor schmucks in NC or SC that would track patterns and we knew even if everything went perfect it probably still wasn’t going to snow there. We’re those schmucks now. but those schmucks got excited for zr or ip....like we do for snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 this has to be snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 look at date PSU--you can apologize later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Gonna rain 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 47 minutes ago, Ji said: this has to be snow Minty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Chris 78 posted a possibility earlier today that I agreed with and posted about. Guess What?? The 18z GFS is more bullish!.................................................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 1 hour ago, Ji said: this has to be snow It’s not even close but it has an absolutely perfect long wave pattern with a -nao and +pna which helps us get a 45* rainstorm instead of a 55* one! 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 It’s not even close but it has an absolutely perfect long wave pattern with a -nao and +pna which helps us get a 45* rainstorm instead of a 55* one! Aifs obviously has a warm bias. It will “learn” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 18 minutes ago, Ji said: Aifs obviously has a warm bias. It will “learn” What level of this sucks are we at now? Is there a suckage scale? If not there should be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 @brooklynwx99 @Ji @Terpeast This is an even better example of what I was talking about yesterday. This is before Ji’s “it has to be snow” wave. The ridging in front is the problem, ignoring the freaking crazy 50/50. But I get it there is a horrible air mass in front. So I’ll let that one go… Bit focus on the pacific and west coast progression here on this loop. That next wave should progress east. Look at the long wave pattern. That Ji wave is being absorbed into the 50/50 about to strengthen that. There is a perfect pac longewave configuration. But look what happened. Everything else in the pac progresses. The trough and ridge behind the wave move east. But the wave doesn’t. It’s dogging down and cutting off in the west and look it’s pumping another ridge ahead of it that’s going to link with the west based block and…we know the end. @brooklynwx99yesterday I showed this same thing on a gfs run and you said we just had to give it time and wait for the next wave to progress east but that was just an illusion because the run ended there. The next wave isn’t going to progress east either. The wavelengths in the west just adjust, broaden it shorten, as the waves amplify and get stuck in the west. I’m not interested in arguments if it’s happening. I’ve seen this time and again lately. I am interested in hypothesizing WHY that’s happening. The wavelengths to the west of these waves out west do not always support them digging into the west. But even when the pac pattern SHOULD kick the waves east the flow just compresses. My theory is that it’s not just the pac. That there is also downstream resistance in the flow. Maybe from the warmer than normal gulf and Atlantic. Also if the waves are coming in off the pacific more juiced up they could be amplifying sooner which could cause them to want to cut off in the mountain west due to feedback. I don’t KNOW. I’m just thinking wave physics and trying to figure out why something that shouldn’t based on the upstream wavelengths keeps happening. What’s weird to me is that no one else is talking about this. Just accepting it with no discussion of WHY! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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