psuhoffman Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 1 hour ago, CAPE said: No. Predominately an h5 ridge across east-central Canada with a mostly -PNA/+EPO, which means not very cold in our nearby source region. It has been mostly just seasonably chilly, but not a good pattern to lock cold in when storms approach. The exception was that 10 day period in January. 1 hour ago, Ji said: we have had a mostly PNA pattern which probably explains that lack of SER. i think as you mentioned the big issue is the crazy ridges in the middle of the country up into central Canada No…early then late. But for the core of winter we had a favorable pna, but the wavelengths just broadened. The SER shifted to the center of the country and the warmth was so expansive it didn’t matter that technically we were under a mid to upper level trough. But it’s all the same problem. It doesn’t matter what the specific long wave pattern is if warm keeps winning in such a lopsided rout over N.A. at our latitude. ETA: let me clarify I’m not saying getting a favorable pdo won’t help. It will. It will snow more. This is a matter of degrees. But there have also been times during this PDO where the pacific for a time wasn’t that bad and the warmth was still winning across the CONUS. I’m not sure that is totally solved by the PDO. I’m pointing out that at our latitude regardless of the long wave pattern cold is having a hard time winning anywhere. Whether there is a ridge or “technically” a trough but one flooded in the lower levels with pac puke! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No…early then late. But for the core of winter we had a favorable pna, but the wavelengths just broadened. The SER shifted to the center of the country and the warmth was so expansive it didn’t matter that technically we were under a mid to upper level trough. But it’s all the same problem. It doesn’t matter what the specific long wave pattern is if warm keeps winning in such a lopsided rout over N.A. at our latitude. ETA: let me clarify I’m not saying getting a favorable pdo won’t help. It will. It will snow more. This is a matter of degrees. But there have also been times during this PDO where the pacific for a time wasn’t that bad and the warmth was still winning across the CONUS. I’m not sure that is totally solved by the PDO. I’m pointing out that at our latitude regardless of the long wave pattern cold is having a hard time winning anywhere. Whether there is a ridge or “technically” a trough but one flooded in the lower levels with pac puke! I think too much emphasis is probably placed on the PDO, similar to the MJO, when things 'go wrong'. The ENSO/PDO relationship is complicated and not that well understood, although there are apparent correlations with Nino/Nina events. All these indices interact in ways we simply don't have all the answers to, and ultimately impact the general longwave patterns. It is interesting and fascinating, but ofc our sole interest is all about cold and snow in the MA. It is kind of neurotic honestly lol. This is a straightforward and interesting read on what influences the PDO phase. I have posted this before. Still, it doesn't necessarily provide the ultimate answers we want. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/going-out-ice-cream-first-date-pacific-decadal-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 WB latest EPS control ....seeing a storm at the end of March to our south is a nice sign.... 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 WB EPS weekly 7 day period toward end of March... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB latest EPS control ....seeing a storm at the end of March to our south is a nice sign.... Dude, come on. This is a simulation, and it will be wrong. Way better chance we are 70 on April 1 than NC getting a snowstorm. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Dude, come on. This is a simulation, and it will be wrong. Way better chance we are 70 on April 1 than NC getting a snowstorm. Tracking mirages is better than pages of fixation on how warm the world is... I know it is a long shot. But one can always dream of a white Easter... Maybe this is the year that we get a white Easter, a category 5 hurricane up the Bay, and a white Christmas. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Dude, come on. This is a simulation, and it will be wrong. Way better chance we are 70 on April 1 than NC getting a snowstorm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Trying to understand the MJO better. Heading through 7 toward 8 seems to be a good thing as we head later into March. In all seriousness, not giving up yet on the period. I mean we have been focusing on 6 but it goes through 6 quickly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Latest teleconnections from WB EPS weeklies say don't give up yet; 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 58 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB latest EPS control ....seeing a storm at the end of March to our south is a nice sign.... lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB latest EPS control ....seeing a storm at the end of March to our south is a nice sign.... It's a given with the pattern I posted about earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 47 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Trying to understand the MJO better. Heading through 7 toward 8 seems to be a good thing as we head later into March. In all seriousness, not giving up yet on the period. I mean we have been focusing on 6 but it goes through 6 quickly. But look at the loops and the last few winters were the same…what makes you so confident it goes strong into 8 and doesn’t just die and cycle into warm phases again which is what killed the last attempt at this same pattern evolution? I’m not sure it won’t. Just saying that chart doesn’t make me feel good in any way. Plus it’s late March by then. We can’t even get cold enough most of the time in January and February. Sorry to be a Deb. I want to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 lolNot only is it 792 hours out but the eta is April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 But look at the loops and the last few winters were the same…what makes you so confident it goes strong into 8 and doesn’t just die and cycle into warm phases again which is what killed the last attempt at this same pattern evolution? I’m not sure it won’t. Just saying that chart doesn’t make me feel good in any way. Plus it’s late March by then. We can’t even get cold enough most of the time in January and February. Sorry to be a Deb. I want to be wrong. Remember last year mjo went into strong 8 and 1 towards the end of winter? I don’t remember it helping us but it was one of the highest amplitude phase 8 and 1 I’d ever seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 When is the last time we had a good February? Time to add February along with December as non winter months.All hail to January and a few days in March! I love snow but I doubt I’ll ever see it again 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 5 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB latest EPS control ....seeing a storm at the end of March to our south is a nice sign.... You realize you posted an April fools map right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 WB 6Z GFS; snow on snow.... 2 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 6 hours ago, Ji said: When is the last time we had a good February? Time to add February along with December as non winter months. All hail to January and a few days in March! I love snow but I doubt I’ll ever see it again Just google snowstorm videos or click on Jebmans Mammoth armageddon posts and call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 29 Author Share Posted February 29 7 hours ago, Ji said: When is the last time we had a good February? Time to add February along with December as non winter months. All hail to January and a few days in March! I love snow but I doubt I’ll ever see it again You won’t see it again. You know … base state … and 5-9 year climate regime and all 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 49 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS; snow on snow.... Little snow on snow action...if weather was an adult entertainment site this would be featured category 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 7 hours ago, Ji said: When is the last time we had a good February? Time to add February along with December as non winter months. All hail to January and a few days in March! I love snow but I doubt I’ll ever see it again 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 The potential for around the 10th has looked like a Miller B type deal with the primary tracking well NW. Latest ens runs are further south with both the primary and secondary coastal development, but still plenty of spread. This period is probably it for snow chances in the lowlands. Beyond that it looks like a ridge over Hudson again with a trough digging out west. Then we are beyond mid month. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 1 hour ago, CAPE said: The potential for around the 10th has looked like a Miller B type deal with the primary tracking well NW. Latest ens runs are further south with both the primary and secondary coastal development, but still plenty of spread. This period is probably it for snow chances in the lowlands. Beyond that it looks like a ridge over Hudson again with a trough digging out west. Then we are beyond mid month. If this still looks workable inside of 7 days, then I shall track, too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 March 10 was hyped up last year too and look how that one turned out… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 eps really wants to tank the NAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 the NEW Euro AI model looks to have a nice pattern shaping up mid month. It finally fixes Alaska! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 2 minutes ago, Ji said: eps really wants to tank the NAO Something that's been bothering me though the last few days...the EPS wants to retrograde the NAO ridge very quickly and it ends up centered pretty far south in Canada...that used to work, but in recent years when that happens it's just been linking up with the mid latitude ridges which neutralizes the suppressive benefits of the -NAO. Just something to look out for here. On top of the fact its going to be late March by the time cold makes its way east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Late next week looks interesting. 12z doesn't snow on us but looks like it could. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 14 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Late next week looks interesting. 12z doesn't snow on us but looks like it could. I agree, If this verifies as presented, reposition that 1029 HP sw to Ontario as 1036 and things could work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 this one looked more promising 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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