psuhoffman Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 @Terpeast Referencing what I showed above...and the fact that has happened several times where opposite pacific longwave patterns lead to the same huge SER over the US...what are your thoughts that there is more going on here than just the PDO. I am just thinking out loud here...but is there any chance these 2 factors are also contributing... 1)systems are coming in off the pac more juiced up and amplify quicker which would tend to get them stuck in the inter-mountain west and amplify and cut off there not progress east.... 2) the extreme warmth in the Gulf, Caribbean, Atlantic is contributing to the SER and the combination of these 2 is leading to a tendency for a crazy SER regardless of the PDO or pacific longwave pattern west of there.... I am NOT saying the PDO hasn't been a problem...and isn't contributing to this...but do you think these other 2 factors, which unfortunately wont be solved by a simple PDO flip, are part of the problem also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Terpeast Referencing what I showed above...and the fact that has happened several times where opposite pacific longwave patterns lead to the same huge SER over the US...what are your thoughts that there is more going on here than just the PDO. I am just thinking out loud here...but is there any chance these 2 factors are also contributing... 1)systems are coming in off the pac more juiced up and amplify quicker which would tend to get them stuck in the inter-mountain west and amplify and cut off there not progress east.... 2) the extreme warmth in the Gulf, Caribbean, Atlantic is contributing to the SER and the combination of these 2 is leading to a tendency for a crazy SER regardless of the PDO or pacific longwave pattern west of there.... I am NOT saying the PDO hasn't been a problem...and isn't contributing to this...but do you think these other 2 factors, which unfortunately wont be solved by a simple PDO flip, are part of the problem also? A lot of question marks and not good answers for snow lovers. Our climate is changing for the worse. With all the warming a lot of us may never see big snows again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 WB 12Z GEFS....on our way up...and GEPS...guess will keep my heat mats down another week.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I've pointed this out before... This first example its obvious why we are warm... This pacific configuration is a train wreck, we should be warm with this crap pacific longwave setup But then look at this...its the complete opposite pacific longwave pattern, and we still have a massive full latitude eastern N American ridge I've shown this several times over the last few years...that at times it doesn't matter what the jet configuration is over the pacific it leads to the same pattern over the CONUS regardless. Am I 100% sure the PDO is totally to blame for this...ehh. I hope so. well, yeah, you have to look at the pattern beforehand as well. there's a trough in the west and in AK. it's not really a surprise that it's warm in the east a day or so later. again, you have a case with most of this stuff, but this is not a good application at all. that ridge later on isn't even centered over the West Coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 26 minutes ago, Met1985 said: A lot of question marks and not good answers for snow lovers. Our climate is changing for the worse. With all the warming a lot of us may never see big snows again. You know I agree with the trend...but even if our climo has become Richmond's permanently now...even they used to get a big year from time to time, just much more rare. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: well, yeah, you have to look at the pattern beforehand as well. there's a trough in the west and in AK. it's not really a surprise that it's warm in the east a day or so later. again, you have a case with most of this stuff, but this is not a good application at all. that ridge later on isn't even centered over the West Coast I know, but I've pointed out that at times the wavelengths just expand or shorten east of the central pacific so that the pattern over the CONUS remains virtually the same. At times when there is a trough just off the west coast the wavelenghts shorten dramatically and a trough still digs into the southwest, or worse...they broaden and we end up with a full continent ridge from coast to coast lol. But what rarely seems to happen, regardless of what the central pacific trough/ridge alignment is, is for us to get a nice western US ridge, eastern US trough configuration. I am just hypothesizing why that might be...and those 2 reasons I listed above off the top of my head would be the most likely I can see. I am totally open to other suggestions I am just spitballing here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You know I agree with the trend...but even if our climo has become Richmond's permanently now...even they used to get a big year from time to time, just much more rare. Oh yeah for sure and I know. You're right the past 9 years have been extremely frustrating with snowfall. All along we are seeing a huge surge in snowpack out west. Literally they are calling for 8 to 12 feet out there this weekend. Maybe things will end up balancing out. I know I know. We are moving the goal posts as it is to climate and ever changing weather patterns. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 @brooklynwx99 this is a better example. Look at the pac. Totally opposite pattern there. But the same trough ridge configuration over the US! The wavelengths just adjust. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @brooklynwx99 this is a better example. Look at the pac. Totally opposite pattern there. But the same trough ridge configuration over the US! The wavelengths just adjust. the thing is that is looks like this a couple days before the frame you posted. of course there's going to be a residual ridge with a full latitude trough stretching from Siberia to Baja CA. give the GEFS a couple of days to push the colder air east. looking at this stuff without context doesn't do much good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I'm trying to behave today... As it thunders outside in a mild end to a mild February, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I've pointed this out before... This first example its obvious why we are warm... This pacific configuration is a train wreck, we should be warm with this crap pacific longwave setup But then look at this...its the complete opposite pacific longwave pattern, and we still have a massive full latitude eastern N American ridge I've shown this several times over the last few years...that at times it doesn't matter what the jet configuration is over the pacific it leads to the same pattern over the CONUS regardless. Am I 100% sure the PDO is totally to blame for this...ehh. I hope so. You may have posted stuff on orevious -PDOs before but I don't quite remember...but how has this -PDO cycle compared to previous ones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You know I agree with the trend...but even if our climo has become Richmond's permanently now...even they used to get a big year from time to time, just much more rare. If our climo is gonna be Richmond's...I often wonder if our sub is gonna go the way of the SE forum with just 10 posts a day, haha But really though, if it's that infrequent, interest is gonna drop off a lot I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 40 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the thing is that is looks like this a couple days before the frame you posted. of course there's going to be a residual ridge with a full latitude trough stretching from Siberia to Baja CA. give the GEFS a couple of days to push the colder air east. looking at this stuff without context doesn't do much good I feel like were on two different wavelengths in this discussion. All I care about is getting cold into the east so we can have a shot at snow. Yes, there is a residual effect of unfavorable pacific patterns, but this is part of the problem...that residual affect is lasting longer and longer...and meanwhile there is no lag affect at all when the pac goes to shit. Literally. A few times over the last few years I've also posted how we have a nice thermal profile in place FINALLY...after weeks of slowly getting it there...and then the pacific longwave pattern shifts and within 24 hours warm air blasts 1000 miles and a HUGE ASS ridge goes up...with no delay at all. Warm is winning in a rout. Its kicking our ass like warm is the 1985 Bears and cold is the 1985 Patriots. Think about late December and early January when it took over 2 weeks for cold to finally push east after the bad longwave configuration? The pattern actually started to become favorable from a pure longwave POV around Dec 25 but it took over 2 weeks after that for cold to start to press into the east. We wasted several waves in that time period. Yea, it eventually pushed east...and we got like a week of cold before the whole pattern collapsed...but it took weeks! We don't usually have that long! More typically the decent patterns don't even lock in long enough and before it ever gets cold the warm is taking over again! I am trying to hypothesize why the warmth has been resistant and slow to be pushed out of the east recently even once the pattern shifts to a favorable configuration upstream. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 35 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Oh yeah for sure and I know. You're right the past 9 years have been extremely frustrating with snowfall. All along we are seeing a huge surge in snowpack out west. Literally they are calling for 8 to 12 feet out there this weekend. Maybe things will end up balancing out. I know I know. We are moving the goal posts as it is to climate and ever changing weather patterns. My 10th season out west ( in route to family in VA right now ) This season the storms seem extra juicy.. base pack is thick with high water content and I’ll return to an above average base with higher than average water content. This guy has a long history tracking out here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 the amount of snow the mountains in WA, OR, and CA receive is absolutely insane. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: the amount of snow the mountains in WA, OR, and CA receive is absolutely insane. Good. They need it to get through the summer. We're building in places we shouldn't and the fire season needs to be mitigated as much as possible by snowpack. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Good. They need it to get through the summer. We're building in places we shouldn't and the fire season needs to be mitigated as much as possible by snowpack. that's the truth 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: @Terpeast Referencing what I showed above...and the fact that has happened several times where opposite pacific longwave patterns lead to the same huge SER over the US...what are your thoughts that there is more going on here than just the PDO. I am just thinking out loud here...but is there any chance these 2 factors are also contributing... 1)systems are coming in off the pac more juiced up and amplify quicker which would tend to get them stuck in the inter-mountain west and amplify and cut off there not progress east.... 2) the extreme warmth in the Gulf, Caribbean, Atlantic is contributing to the SER and the combination of these 2 is leading to a tendency for a crazy SER regardless of the PDO or pacific longwave pattern west of there.... I am NOT saying the PDO hasn't been a problem...and isn't contributing to this...but do you think these other 2 factors, which unfortunately wont be solved by a simple PDO flip, are part of the problem also? have we seen much SER this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 22 minutes ago, Ji said: have we seen much SER this winter? No. Predominately an h5 ridge across east-central Canada with a mostly -PNA/+EPO, which means not very cold in our nearby source region. It has been mostly just seasonably chilly, but not a good pattern to lock cold in when storms approach. The exception was that 10 day period in January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: No. Predominately an h5 ridge across east-central Canada with a mostly -PNA/+EPO, which means not very cold in our nearby source region. It has been mostly just seasonably chilly, but not a good pattern to lock cold in when storms approach. The exception was that 10 day period in January. we have had a mostly PNA pattern which probably explains that lack of SER. i think as you mentioned the big issue is the crazy ridges in the middle of the country up into central Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 NAO has not been good. seems to be the hardest thing to nail down in forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Just now, Ji said: we have had a mostly PNA pattern which probably explains that lack of SER. i think as you mentioned the big issue is the crazy ridges in the middle of the country up into central Canada PNA has been variable, which is pretty typical in a Nino. Here is the h5 composite for the winter. This look isn't a winner baby. Not for cold and snow in the MA, at least not in current times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 SER will be back next year though. Hopefully it won't be a permanent fixture for the entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: SER will be back next year though. Hopefully it won't be a permanent fixture for the entire winter. we need to rock between Nov 15 and Jan 15. Get a Jan 2022 type storm and call it a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: PNA has been variable, which is pretty typical in a Nino. Here is the h5 composite for the winter. This look isn't a winner baby. Not for cold and snow in the MA, at least not in current times. lol it kind of looks like the seasonal except for Alaska and Greenland smh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 7 minutes ago, Ji said: we need to rock between Nov 15 and Jan 15. Get a Jan 2022 type storm and call it a winter That’s my thinking. If the MJO is strong in phases 4-6 in October, it would catch my interest. @psuhoffman We haven’t seen a classic sustained PNA+ ridge out west for so long. Every ridge that tried to set up west just kept getting bullied, toppled over us, and brings SER-like warmth to our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 2 minutes ago, Ji said: we need to rock between Nov 15 and Jan 15. Get a Jan 2022 type storm and call it a winter Pretty much. We seem to have a better shot of getting cross polar flow in Nina to produce a cold period if the Aleutian ridge morphs into a -EPO/+PNA pattern. With a gradient initially as the cold presses southeastward and flattens/dislodges the eastern ridge, just need a wave to move along the boundary. That's how the early Jan 2022 storm worked. Stayed cold for a few weeks with 2 more snow events, esp for the eastern part of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 I am predicting a pattern reversal with colder than normal temperatures and wetter than normal from March 15 - April 15. This would almost certainly create accumulating snow threats for western areas with elevation. A persistent trough along the east coast should create these conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: Pretty much. We seem to have a better shot of getting cross polar flow in Nina to produce a cold period if the Aleutian ridge morphs into a -EPO/+PNA pattern. With a gradient initially as the cold presses southeastward and flattens/dislodges the eastern ridge, just need a wave to move along the boundary. That's how the early Jan 2022 storm worked. Stayed cold for a few weeks with 2 more snow events, esp for the eastern part of the region. Part of me is rooting for a very strong nina to cool the oceans a tad, and hope for a few weeks of -EPO/-NAO. Just a couple/few weeks, then I’m wrapping it up as a winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Part of me is rooting for a very strong nina to cool the oceans a tad, and hope for a few weeks of -EPO/-NAO. Just a couple/few weeks, then I’m wrapping it up as a winter. Seems like we have next winter figured out already including an end date lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now