Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 16 minutes ago, roardog said: what causes these “marine heatwaves” we are seeing? A gradual warming of the air in earth should take years or decades even to warm the deep ocean waters. You have to warm the deeper waters from the turning over of the water. That would take a long time. The marine heatwaves have to be fairly shallow since they disappear as fast as they start sometimes. I think the rotation of the Earth has slowed a little.. we are seeing more High pressure systems. land vs water friction also seems to be a little greater (cold coming more from Canada vs 50/50 low cold). 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 @brooklynwx99 I just ran the numbers again...this is what I'm talking about... For BWI the last 8 years have been the least snowy and not by a little...but an exponentially ridiculous margin over the next least snowy period. From 2016/17 to 2023/24 BWI has had 75.3" or an avg of 9.4" per season over that 8 years. The previous least snowy 8 year period was 1950 to 1957 with 99.5". This period is 24% less snowy than the next least snowy period! That is crazy ridiculous. But here is the really crazy part...its about to be sooooo much worse because all our previous snowless periods didn't last past 8 years...they were all bookended by very snowy periods. So you say we need more time...I don't think so, things are about to get crazy stupid soon if we dont get a 40" type season right quick. For example...BWI needs 44.4" next winter just to avoid it being the least snowy 9 years ever. But it gets even worse....over the next 2 years BWI would need 68" to avoid it becoming the least snowy 10 years EVER!... think of that...we need 68" in the next 2 years...not for it to become average, or just bad...but simply to not have it be the least snowy 10 years EVER. And it gets even worse after that...BWI needs to avg 37" over the next 3 years to avoid the worst 11 years ever...and it goes on and on. The bottom line is...its very likely we are NEVER digging out of this. We have fallen so far below the bar of all previous low snowfall periods that its unlikely we ever recover and get out of the red...and this does become the "least snowy 10, 12, 15...years ever going forward because it would take the kind of 1960s stretch to avoid it that likely just isnt possible anymore in todays climate. So no...I do think we have enough data to say. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 In case the mods get pissed again about having to move posts - let me provide an easier solution: Simply change the name of this thread. You’re welcome. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
understudyhero Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @brooklynwx99 I just ran the numbers again...this is what I'm talking about... For BWI the last 8 years have been the least snowy and not by a little...but an exponentially ridiculous margin over the next least snowy period. From 2016/17 to 2023/24 BWI has had 75.3" or an avg of 9.4" per season over that 8 years. The previous least snowy 8 year period was 1950 to 1957 with 99.5". This period is 24% less snowy than the next least snowy period! That is crazy ridiculous. But here is the really crazy part...its about to be sooooo much worse because all our previous snowless periods didn't last past 8 years...they were all bookended by very snowy periods. So you say we need more time...I don't think so, things are about to get crazy stupid soon if we dont get a 40" type season right quick. For example...BWI needs 44.4" next winter just to avoid it being the least snowy 9 years ever. But it gets even worse....over the next 2 years BWI would need 68" to avoid it becoming the least snowy 10 years EVER!... think of that...we need 68" in the next 2 years...not for it to become average, or just bad...but simply to not have it be the least snowy 10 years EVER. And it gets even worse after that...BWI needs to avg 37" over the next 3 years to avoid the worst 11 years ever...and it goes on and on. The bottom line is...its very likely we are NEVER digging out of this. We have fallen so far below the bar of all previous low snowfall periods that its unlikely we ever recover and get out of the red...and this does become the "least snowy 10, 12, 15...years ever going forward because it would take the kind of 1960s stretch to avoid it that likely just isnt possible anymore in todays climate. So no...I do think we have enough data to say. Last year screws with that rolling 8 year average. Prior to last year we were ~15" average, those single digit years hurt no matter when they hit. If we got 15" next year (the average prior to the shut out year) we would be up 10.3 (almost a full inch up) on your eight year rolling average. Edit: I think your math might be off. 56" in 2024+ 2025 would bring us to 1968-1977 on a rolling ten year average (meaning average snow per year over a ten year period) and ~132" total over each of the ten year periods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 25 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I think the rotation of the Earth has slowed a little.. we are seeing more High pressure systems. land vs water friction also seems to be a little greater (cold coming more from Canada vs 50/50 low cold). 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 1 hour ago, CAPE said: I honestly have no answer. With the random, fluky nature of wave timing, it could happen even if the PDO remains as is, and regardless of Enso state. Probably a weak to moderate east based Nina with some NA blocking episodes, or a Modoki Nino with blocking. A neutral Enso is the least likely to produce such an outcome. Agree with the bolded part - I think that's the primary cause of disappointment when "patterns" don't deliver. I've been arguing for years that long range pattern recognition/correlation is far more effective in hindsight than foresight. The problem is that the numerical indices used to characterize patterns are too simplistic and not strongly correlated enough with local weather to be much utility for long range snowstorm hunting. The historical sample size of patterns is also too small for robust analysis, even if the base state weren't evolving. Models can't resolve future long range "patterns" much better than they can see individual trofs and ridges. So considering that nuances of synoptic pattern evolution largely determine distribution of snow in non-mountainous, mid-latitude regions, it's almost impossible to identify favorable wintry periods more than 10 days in advance. I know I'm mostly alone on this point, but I will continue to try to chip away. The increased attention to long range forecast over the past few years has seemingly come at the expense of good mid-range forecasting and discussion. I would hope that people would start to see the futility of the long range stuff after a few seasons of terrible performance... particularly those with a science background or some knowledge of statistics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 8 minutes ago, Terpeast said: In case the mods get pissed again about having to move posts - let me provide an easier solution: Simply change the name of this thread. You’re welcome. There's not much to track in the LR realistically, other than maybe a chilly, miserable start to Spring. Might as well just let the convo flow. Some decent back and forth discussion going on. Well, with one possible exception. Just don't stalk me bro. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChillinIt Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Or you could say since 2009/2010 until now Baltimore has received 267.02 inches of snow or on overage 19.07 inches per year for 14 years. If we could go back 500 years I think we would see a better picture... just saying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 14 minutes ago, understudyhero said: Last year screws with that rolling 8 year average. Prior to last year we were ~15" average, those single digit years hurt no matter when they hit. If we got 15" next year (the average prior to the shut out year) we would be up 10.3 (almost a full inch up) on your eight year rolling average. 10.3” is about 25% worse than the second worse 9 year period and yet you say it like it’s not that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 12 minutes ago, Solution Man said: That’s literally how I felt reading that! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Very depressing; maybe a ferocious hurricane season will cool the Atlantic Scientists Are Freaking Out About Ocean Temperatureshttps://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/27/climate/scientists-are-freaking-out-about-ocean-temperatures.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
understudyhero Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 10.3” is about 25% worse than the second worse 9 year period and yet you say it like it’s not that bad. But it's also not 68" needed in the next two years to avoid being the worse 10 year period ever. it's 56", and 57" makes us the second worse. We do need 69" to make it up to the third worse 10 year streak though (from second worse). More random facts : if you average our "place" in winters for 10 years as well (the worst being last year at 132nd), we are average 80.8. If you look at the year before the #1 (1996) we were 81.3 average (1995). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 30 minutes ago, Terpeast said: In case the mods get pissed again about having to move posts - let me provide an easier solution: Simply change the name of this thread. You’re welcome. 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: There's not much to track in the LR realistically, other than maybe a chilly, miserable start to Spring. Might as well just let the convo flow. Some decent back and forth discussion going on. Well, with one possible exception. Just don't stalk me bro. This. I wouldn’t be talking about THIS depressing BS if we had anything optimistic at all to discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 15 minutes ago, ChillinIt said: Or you could say since 2009/2010 until now Baltimore has received 267.02 inches of snow or on overage 19.07 inches per year for 14 years. If we could go back 500 years I think we would see a better picture... just saying. Two things can be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 8 minutes ago, understudyhero said: But it's also not 68" needed in the next two years to avoid being the worse 10 year period ever. it's 56", and 57" makes us the second worse. We do need 69" to make it up to the third worse 10 year streak though (from second worse). What do you have as the worst 10 year period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
understudyhero Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 1968-1977 I accidentally closed the source window to check, but it was ~13.1" average. where I got source: https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/baltimore/most-yearly-snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 1 minute ago, understudyhero said: 1968-1977 I accidentally closed the source window to check, but it was ~13.1" average. Yah the first 10 years of my life were bad snow years in the DMV. No one was blaming heat back then though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 3 minutes ago, understudyhero said: 1968-1977 I accidentally closed the source window to check, but it was ~13.1" average. 1968-1977 BWI had 143.1”. Unless BWI gets more snow this year they will have 75.3” from 2017-2024. BWI would be 67.8” short of that 10 year period with 2 seasons to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Just now, psuhoffman said: 1968-1977 BWI had 143.1”. Unless BWI gets more snow this year they will have 75.3” from 2017-2024. BWI would be 67.8” short of that 10 year period with 2 seasons to go. Without being home to check I think that’s like a quarter inch more than the 10 years from 1948-1957. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
understudyhero Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Just now, psuhoffman said: 1968-1977 BWI had 143.1”. Unless BWI gets more snow this year they will have 75.3” from 2017-2024. BWI would be 67.8” short of that 10 year period with 2 seasons to go. Rolling average. The ten years ending with the year in question. Otherwise it's just arbitrary 10 years. Look at the attached pic. That's snow totals by year ranked 1 to 132. notice we are getting BETTER with big total years to the right side (lowest points, most recent) compared to the left side where there is nothing in the circled area (highest ranking space). Also notice the bad years are getting more frequent. What does that tell us? I don't know but I would rather live in the odds on the right side than that horrible period in the center/right without any big snows. (Which is in fact 68-77 roughly , just went and looked at the data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 5 minutes ago, understudyhero said: Rolling average. The ten years ending with the year in question. Otherwise it's just arbitrary 10 years. Look at the attached pic. That's snow totals by year ranked 1 to 132. notice we are getting BETTER with big total years to the right side (lowest points, most recent) compared to the left side where there is nothing in the circled area (highest ranking space). Also notice the bad years are getting more frequent. What does that tell us? I don't know but I would rather live in the odds on the right side than that horrible period in the center/right without any big snows. (Which is in fact 68-77 roughly , just went and looked at the data) I disagree with your last point. I’d much rather have a bunch of solid winters than a few great ones surrounded by dreg almost snowless years. But that’s opinion. The years aren’t arbitrary. I picked the last 8 years. I compared it to other low snow 8 year periods. Then projected how likely we would avoid the least snowy 10 years. None of that is arbitrary. The numbers are exactly what I said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
understudyhero Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I disagree with your last point. I’d much rather have a bunch of solid winters than a few great ones surrounded by dreg almost snowless years. But that’s opinion. The years aren’t arbitrary. I picked the last 8 years. I compared it to other low snow 8 year periods. Then projected how likely we would avoid the least snowy 10 years. None of that is arbitrary. The numbers are exactly what I said. why 8? you're cherry picking. rolling averages is better or same-state weather patterns or or or ... Just picking bad periods to make your math works is an exercise in exclusion. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 5 minutes ago, understudyhero said: why 8? you're cherry picking. rolling averages is better or same-state weather patterns or or or ... Just picking bad periods to make your math works is an exercise in exclusion. I’m going to try this next time I get pulled over. “Officer, why are you using how fast I’m driving today, a rolling 10 day average would be better”. This is semantics. You’re measuring snow trends. I’m comparing specific years. Those are different things. You’re saying this method is better. Ok. That’s your opinion. But the years I picked aren’t arbitrary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 people are going to get up tomorrow and see 75 new posts and think there is a blizzard coming then read this...lol 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: Very depressing; maybe a ferocious hurricane season will cool the Atlantic Scientists Are Freaking Out About Ocean Temperatureshttps://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/27/climate/scientists-are-freaking-out-about-ocean-temperatures.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare I am absolutely stoked. This is going to be one fun chasing season for the Ages. We are going to get treated to some ferocious THRILLING tropical systems! Just think of the papers that will be written about these weather systems! We got us a developing La Nina! What does this mean, you ask? Well La Ninas PROMOTE hurricane development. If you are a chaser, you better strap yourselves in. This is gonna be one hell of a hurricane season! One thing we better be askin ourselves: Was the 2005 hurricane season a La Nina? Was the 2020 tropical season a La Nina? Because if it was......... uh oh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Sounds like we’re in a mini slump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
understudyhero Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 No we are rebounding from the worse year in recorded history with "not the worse year again". Only up from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: people are going to get up tomorrow and see 75 new posts and think there is a blizzard coming then read this...lol This is what happened to me just now after I got off my shift. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 This. I wouldn’t be talking about THIS depressing BS if we had anything optimistic at all to discuss. March 9-12 might end up being interesting for someone along the east coast…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: March 9-12 might end up being interesting for someone along the east coast… . I’ll be in Florida lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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