CAPE Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 23 minutes ago, paulythegun said: DAS BOOT! Great flick. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: So now I gotta watch out for blue robes and hoods now. I think the winters we’ve seen that past 3 years are our new normal. It’s never going back to our childhood. We’re the new Richmond I’m afraid. Until next year or the year after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 26 minutes ago, CAPE said: I will roll with a Nina- although they certainly can be a complete ratter like last winter, recent Ninos haven't been much better, and tend to struggle to bring even modest cold anymore. Ninas are more likely to feature h5 configurations that can bring legit cold periods to the east at times that at least give us a shot- and cold is the biggest issue now. Get a bit of timely NA help to slow the flow and there is a chance for a bigger storm that can also impact inland areas, like March 2018. All these periods in recent Ninas featured actual cold air and one or more snow events for parts of the MA east of the highlands- I agree, but it’s sad because that means we are totally giving up on getting a legit snowy winter because that ain’t happening in a Nina. But ya I agree. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Yea I know how the CFS and a smoothed mean work. But I also know we’ve had 9 straight warm winters and we struggle to get cold at all anymore and lately the whole continent is warm and at some point all these “it’s fine chill out” posts only mean squat if it actually gets cold and snows. So long as we remain in this never ending torch snow hell I kinda don’t want to hear it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 The latest Euro Weeklies continue to move the better look up in in time & match the timing of at the end of the EPS. Here is the week of March 12th to 19th on the Weeklies. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 I feel like I’m looking at the scoreboard and we’re losing by 50 at the 2 min warning and the coach is saying “it’s ok guys, everything’s fine, focus on the next play”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I feel like I’m looking at the scoreboard and we’re losing by 50 at the 2 min warning and the coach is saying “it’s ok guys, everything’s fine, focus on the next play”. lol that is the nature of the weather, dude. nobody really knows what's going to happen. also doesn't help that the two legit Ninos that we had were either the strongest ever or still super. one of them produced the largest EC storm in 30 years 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 One thing I’ll say about these LR charts is this. As long as we’re in a -PDO driven by the marine heat waves in the west pacific and off Japan, I would place no faith in LR charts no matter how good they may look. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I agree, but it’s sad because that means we are totally giving up on getting a legit snowy winter because that ain’t happening in a Nina. But ya I agree. Once in a blue moon, and mostly because of a KU and a few nickel and dimers. But I am afraid that Ninos have largely become impotent. Still have to test the Modoki with blocking, if that is even possible anymore. If we get that, and it fails, well, you know. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 my point is that all of this broad scale stuff about the state of winters to come for the next decade or whatever shouldn't be looked at as anything more than pure speculation. the declarative statements are a bit grating 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I feel like I’m looking at the scoreboard and we’re losing by 50 at the 2 min warning and the coach is saying “it’s ok guys, everything’s fine, focus on the next play”. As far as this sub...I feel like the majority of posters here are (more or less) on the same page about (many or most) of your most frequently argued assertions and fears. If not in this or that particular analogy, example, illustration etc, then writ large. But maybe I just have a good ignore list! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Just now, CAPE said: Once in a blue moon, and mostly because of a KU and a few nickel and dimers. But I am afraid that Ninos have largely become impotent. Still have to test the Modoki with blocking, if that is even possible anymore. If we get that, and it fails, well, you know. I think this is recency bias. 2016 produced one of the biggest HECS in history and 2018-19 was literally weak sauce from the get-go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 @CAPE curious…what if your life depended on BWI getting 35” next winter. What pattern would you want to see heading into winter to feel like you have a shot? Short of simply “hope the PDO flips” that ones obvious. But what if it’s still a -pdo. BWI has had 35”+ numerous times in a -pdo. Granted none in the last 30 years. But if you could draw up the pattern you want to see in this -pdo if you had to get 35” what would it be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The latest Euro Weeklies continue to move the better look up in in time & match the timing of at the end of the EPS. Here is the week of March 12th to 19th on the Weeklies. Here are the following 2 weeks through the end of March on the Weeklies. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Here are the following 2 weeks through the end of March on the Weeklies.It probably shows the same for June, July, August…. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 @brooklynwx99 I was saying a lot of the same things you are years ago when people were alarmed. Nothing you’re saying is wrong when taken in a vacuum. But it’s been warm with very little snow for a long time now. If it doesn’t snow soon those statements just start to wear thin. It’s not you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @CAPE curious…what if your life depended on BWI getting 35” next winter. What pattern would you want to see heading into winter to feel like you have a shot? Short of simply “hope the PDO flips” that ones obvious. But what if it’s still a -pdo. BWI has had 35”+ numerous times in a -pdo. Granted none in the last 30 years. But if you could draw up the pattern you want to see in this -pdo if you had to get 35” what would it be? I honestly have no answer. With the random, fluky nature of wave timing, it could happen even if the PDO remains as is, and regardless of Enso state. Probably a weak to moderate east based Nina with some NA blocking episodes, or a Modoki Nino with blocking. A neutral Enso is the least likely to produce such an outcome. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 CPC is pretty big on the +EPO pattern sticking around https://ibb.co/37rmSNg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: @brooklynwx99 I was saying a lot of the same things you are years ago when people were alarmed. Nothing you’re saying is wrong when taken in a vacuum. But it’s been warm with very little snow for a long time now. If it doesn’t snow soon those statements just start to wear thin. It’s not you. trust me, I get what you're saying... I just think we need to give this another several years to really make legit conclusions on it. the sample size is just too low, especially for commenting on the efficacy of Ninos at large. we just don't have enough data 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 IMO, there are only two things that CC has done that are pretty much indisputable: winters have become warmer, and there is a lower chance of seeing a BN three-month stretch snowfall variance has increased (more boom/bust winters) that's about it. anything else is speculative at best 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I think this is recency bias. 2016 produced one of the biggest HECS in history and 2018-19 was literally weak sauce from the get-go It did for inland areas, but it was a complete snowless torch outside of that event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: trust me, I get what you're saying... I just think we need to give this another several years to really make legit conclusions on it. the sample size is just too low, especially for commenting on the efficacy of Ninos at large. we just don't have enough data The sample size is low if you parse this last 8 years into sub groups. But if you just take the whole period…we’re getting close to the ridiculous stage when you compare this to every previous low snowfall period. And if we don’t get some HUGE winters SOON it’s about to escalate to astronomical proportions because all the previous 8 year periods even close to this on snow were bookended by epic high snowfall periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 I feel for you guys down there. You've been through some rough times in an area that is already rough if you like winter weather. You guys finally get a Nino like you were hoping for after 3 winters of Nina and it's a super Nino with a -PDO. The closest example of that is '72-'73 and if you look at the mean 500MB anomaly map from this winter, to no surprise it looks almost identical to '72-'73. Add in a warmer world and the result shouldn't have been surprising to anyone. The extreme -PDO that has developed since the late 2010s has obviously been a big problem for you guys and the entire east coast. We can't buy a sustained winter +PNA since the PDO nosedived but I just can't believe it's some kind of permanent change. My guess is it's no more permanent than the north pacific "warm blob" was in the mid 2010s. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 It looks like we're going to be too far south for severe wx tomorrow.. an El Nino February Chicago's under a tornado watch, and the radar looks impressive there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 10 minutes ago, roardog said: I feel for you guys down there. You've been through some rough times in an area that is already rough if you like winter weather. You guys finally get a Nino like you were hoping for after 3 winters of Nina and it's a super Nino with a -PDO. The closest example of that is '72-'73 and if you look at the mean 500MB anomaly map from this winter, to no surprise it looks almost identical to '72-'73. Add in a warmer world and the result shouldn't have been surprising to anyone. The extreme -PDO that has developed since the late 2010s has obviously been a big problem for you guys and the entire east coast. We can't buy a sustained winter +PNA since the PDO nosedived but I just can't believe it's some kind of permanent change. My guess is it's no more permanent than the north pacific "warm blob" was in the mid 2010s. I don’t think the extreme -pdo is permanent either, but it’s quite the hole to dig out of. Not even a borderline super nino could get us out of that, although it got close but then it collapsed in Feb. We at least did get two SECS in Jan and a minor event in Feb, and that’s got to count for something within a 72-73 analog in a warmer world. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 The PDO talk drives me crazy. It's not some independent thing, It's feedback from previous patterns. Air is so much lighter than water, so it changes first.. then the water warms/cools. All that's being spotted with the PDO is pattern marks, some alternate mechanism, unless the Pacific rim is active or something.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The PDO talk drives me crazy. It's not some independent thing, It's feedback from previous patterns. Air is so much lighter than water, so it changes first.. then the water warms/cools. All that's being spotted with the PDO is pattern marks, some alternate mechanism, unless the Pacific rim is active or something.. That’s where I disagree. Both air AND water are drivers working in tandem, not just air ON water. It’s a two way street. The marine heat wave off Japan is exerting its own influence and a powerful one at that. Zoom in on Japan, you’ll see SSTa off the charts. Take a look, and tell me that isn’t having any effect on the atmospheric pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The PDO talk drives me crazy. It's not some independent thing, It's feedback from previous patterns. Air is so much lighter than water, so it changes first.. then the water warms/cools. All that's being spotted with the PDO is pattern marks, some alternate mechanism, unless the Pacific rim is active or something.. what causes these “marine heatwaves” we are seeing? A gradual warming of the air in earth should take years or decades even to warm the deep ocean waters. You have to warm the deeper waters from the turning over of the water. That would take a long time. The marine heatwaves have to be fairly shallow since they disappear as fast as they start sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: So now I gotta watch out for blue robes and hoods now. Whatever you do don’t play earthbound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @CAPE curious…what if your life depended on BWI getting 35” next winter. What pattern would you want to see heading into winter to feel like you have a shot? Short of simply “hope the PDO flips” that ones obvious. But what if it’s still a -pdo. BWI has had 35”+ numerous times in a -pdo. Granted none in the last 30 years. But if you could draw up the pattern you want to see in this -pdo if you had to get 35” what would it be? I'd probably start making funeral arrangements. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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