stormtracker Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: If ppl weren't dangling the 1958 analog all season he would have thrown in the towel in early January as per usual. lol, there's not going to be a March 1958. I'll let Ji be an admin for a day if that happens. Every time I've dangled that bet, I've always won. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 12 hours ago, GaWx said: For winter: -2014-5 and 2015-6 were solid +PDOs. -2016-7 and 2017-8 averaged pretty much neutral -2018-9 was only modestly -PDO -Strong to very strong -PDO since https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat I had it highlight the +1.5, and then highlighted anything same or higher. Winter months only. Satellite era only. At first glance it looks like you might expect, but too many exceptions to be definitive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: lol, there's not going to be a March 1958. I'll let Ji be an admin for a day if that happens. Every time I've dangled that bet, I've always won. One of these years… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 I am actually surprised we haven't gotten more big March storms lately. It seems more just like really bad luck than anything else. Crazy stuff can happen in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 16 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I am actually surprised we haven't gotten more big March storms lately. It seems more just like really bad luck than anything else. Crazy stuff can happen in March. I’ve had quite a few big March storms in the last 15 years. They were all slightly too warm for 95. Is that bad luck or… 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 23 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I am actually surprised we haven't gotten more big March storms lately. It seems more just like really bad luck than anything else. Crazy stuff can happen in March. Here’s an example. Last nights euro control developed a monster block. 50/50. Tracks a wave under us, h5 through VA, slp off Delmarva and… 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Just now, psuhoffman said: Here’s an example. Last nights euro control developed a monster block. 50/50. Tracks a wave under us, h5 through VA, slp off Delmarva and… There is a trough in the east there with a strong storm. Here is the h5. Just not cold enough. and yes there is a less than ideal pacific pattern. Yea that’s why it’s not cold enough. Yes it could still snow if everything was perfect. The question is how perfect? At some point if you need it to be more and more perfect to be cold enough it just becomes increasingly unlikely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Another example. yea look at that trough off the west coast extending up into NW Canada blasting pac puke into the conus. I get there is no way we could get snow because…oh wait sorry that’s March 58! The difference is the waters weren’t as warm so pax puke was less puky. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’ve had quite a few big March storms in the last 15 years. They were all slightly too warm for 95. Is that bad luck or… 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Another example. yea look at that trough off the west coast extending up into NW Canada blasting pac puke into the conus. I get there is no way we could get snow because…oh wait sorry that’s March 58! The difference is the waters weren’t as warm so pax puke was less puky. Kinda hard to deny what is happening when you see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 10 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Kinda hard to deny what is happening when you see that. The fact it’s been crazy warm lately and the oceans are all on fire might have nothing to do with our snow drought that’s getting worse at exactly the same time as it’s getting warmer. We just can’t know. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 @osfan24 @stormtracker but my point is…even if March 58 did come again it would be a 40 degree rainstorm and we would all be complaining “why don’t we get March 58 storms anymore”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Because of earthquakes, tidal waves, and volcanoes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 This makes we want to punch furry woodland creatures. -AO/NAO, PNA ridge. And…TORCH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This makes we want to punch furry woodland creatures. -AO/NAO, PNA ridge. And…TORCH We just can know. If that doesn't say we're done, I don't know what does. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Here’s an example. Last nights euro control developed a monster block. 50/50. Tracks a wave under us, h5 through VA, slp off Delmarva and… We have seen nothing but monster block after block for two months and except for one 7 day run, no such thing set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The fact it’s been crazy warm lately and the oceans are all on fire might have nothing to do with our snow drought that’s getting worse at exactly the same time as it’s getting warmer. We just can’t know. We will Never “know” especially with continuing status quo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 This makes we want to punch furry woodland creatures. -AO/NAO, PNA ridge. And…TORCH I get it. But it’s on march 10 after the Conus has been flooded with pac puke for weeks. I agree things are getting worse for snow but not sure if this example is the best. I don’t know. I get your frustration. I sometimes wonder if your frustration would be tempered if you lived and experienced what we in the lowlands experience regularly…I know you lived here at one point…If my mean snowfall was almost 40” I’d be pissed to. But we’re like 12-16” down here. We don’t get as much but it doesn’t take near as much to meet expectations. We also have a higher fail rate than you do. Winter of 20/21…I got dustings to an inch here and there to ice over and over again while you racked it up. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: We have seen nothing but monster block after block for two months and except for one 7 day run, no such thing set up. We did have a block in Dec and Jan. The Feb one failed. But why does it even matter? Over the last 5 years we had several 3 standard deviating or more blocks that did us no good at all. We torched right through one of our strongest blocks ever a couple Decembers ago. Remember 2021? We had this block in prime climo for 5 weeks and it did DC no good at all. They got a couple perfect track rainstorms though! Lack of blocking is not why we’ve been in this snow drought. A failure of blocks to affect or offset the pacific the same as in the past has been though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This makes we want to punch furry woodland creatures. -AO/NAO, PNA ridge. And…TORCH of course torch...no 50 50 low and we are under an eastern Ridge. Bowling balls never do well for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: I get it. But it’s on march 10 after the Conus has been flooded with pac puke for weeks. I agree things are getting worse for snow but not sure if this example is the best. But that’s part of this feedback loop we’re stuck in. Oceans are crazy warm. So any bad long wave configuration floods crazy warmth across the whole continent blasting away any cold. Then it takes forever to recover. By the time we do it happens again. Repeat cycle a few fines and winters over and I only had to break out my winter coat maybe 5 times all year! This isn’t a refutation of my point it’s support for it imo. The rest of your post is probably accurate. I haven’t thought about it but I left the DC area because I couldn’t take it. I lived in southern NJ and northern VA for 24 years and it wasn’t enough snow for me. So I moved to a location that used to get reliable snow. That averages over twice as much and historically gets a 8” snow almost every year. And now for the last 8 years I’m back to about what I used to get living in VA which was why I left! Yes that’s frustrating! But I try not to complain about my results because while I’m getting what northern VA used to they are getting what NC used to! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: But that’s part of this feedback loop we’re stuck in. Oceans are crazy warm. So any bad long wave configuration floods crazy warmth across the whole continent blasting away any cold. Then it takes forever to recover. By the time we do it happens again. Repeat cycle a few fines and winters over and I only had to break out my winter coat maybe 5 times all year! This isn’t a refutation of my point it’s support for it imo. The rest of your post is probably accurate. I haven’t thought about it but I left the DC area because I couldn’t take it. I lived in southern NJ and northern VA for 24 years and it wasn’t enough snow for me. So I moved to a location that used to get reliable snow. That averages over twice as much and historically gets a 8” snow almost every year. And now for the last 8 years I’m back to about what I used to get living in VA which was why I left! Yes that’s frustrating! But I try not to complain about my results because while I’m getting what northern VA used to they are getting what NC used to! if you are going to move that much...make it worth it....30 miles here....50 miles there...waste of a move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 3 minutes ago, Ji said: of course torch...no 50 50 low and we are under an eastern Ridge. Bowling balls never do well for us There is a ridge EVERYWHERE downstream of the pacific. Think… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 3 minutes ago, Ji said: if you are going to move that much...make it worth it....30 miles here....50 miles there...waste of a move. I agree now. 20 years ago that wasn’t true. And from 2006 to 2016 I reaped the rewards. I was 100% satisfied with the results my first decade here. But knowing what I know now I’d provably tell my 2005 self “look for jobs in VT and move there”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I agree now. 20 years ago that wasn’t true. And from 2006 to 2016 I reaped the rewards. I was 100% satisfied with the results my first decade here. But knowing what I know now I’d provably tell my 2005 self “look for jobs in VT and move there”. especially since you are a teacher. Typically they have schools in every state! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I agree now. 20 years ago that wasn’t true. And from 2006 to 2016 I reaped the rewards. I was 100% satisfied with the results my first decade here. But knowing what I know now I’d provably tell my 2005 self “look for jobs in VT and move there”. man kind sucks...we were doing so well till 2016 and then he changed the climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is a ridge EVERYWHERE downstream of the pacific. Think… we need a broad trough.....there is way to much red lines lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 12z GFS ensembles trended much more -NAO, starting the first few days of March. We had a minor Stratosphere warming Feb 15-23, so the beginning of March actually fits the average lag for warmings at this time of year.. interesting that standard methods would have got it right, and not models until now.. problem for snow/cold is the Pacific pattern is bad for the foreseeable future.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I agree now. 20 years ago that wasn’t true. And from 2006 to 2016 I reaped the rewards. I was 100% satisfied with the results my first decade here. But knowing what I know now I’d provably tell my 2005 self “look for jobs in VT and move there”. The problem with moving for snow when it's been this bad is...most people can't move to the mountains. Career opportunities for most is closer to where people actually live...the corridors! Now I am still shocked that the snow climo dropped off so drastically for Boston. Is even their's damaged now? But if it's bad from Boston on down, there's literally nowhere to go and have a career in whatever field you are. Everybody can't just pile into WV! I think we all are gonna have to make peace with it if things don't/can't get better. No choice, really...otherwise woodland creatures wouldn't be safe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: The problem with moving for snow when it's been this bad is...most people can't move to the mountains. Career opportunities for most is closer to where people actually live...the corridors! Now I am still shocked that the snow climo dropped off so drastically for Boston. Is even their's damaged now? But if it's bad from Boston on down, there's literally nowhere to go and have a career in whatever field you are. Everybody can't just pile into WV! I think we all are gonna have to make peace with it if things don't/can't get better. No choice, really...otherwise woodland creatures wouldn't be safe I thought it was telling when Boston only had 2" of snow in the core of Winter, I think it was either 17-18, or 19-20. The jet stream has been lifting north for sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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