NorthArlington101 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 spring break before Easter is dumb EURO control has an I-81 3-5”er on the 8th.EPS LR has us waiting til March 26 for a final area wide 2-4” lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 EURO control has an I-81 3-5”er on the 8th.EPS LR has us waiting til March 26 for a final area wide 2-4” lolI cancelled wxbell, I thought the euro looked like it was primed to give an interior event at 240…. Can you post the h5 from control? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 WB EPS control...Day 11 40 minutes ago, Heisy said: I cancelled wxbell, I thought the euro looked like it was primed to give an interior event at 240…. Can you post the h5 from control? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 34 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB EPS control...Day 11 Not good enough for me to get interested. Looks like an elevation event 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 2 hours ago, GaWx said: Absolutely. He’s done this in the past in giving early hints about a warm winter forecast only to backtrack by trying to find a reason to go colder or at least sow doubt about warmth. When was the last time he went warm throughout the E 1/3 of the US and stuck with it? I can’t even recall anything resembling that. His cold bias for the E US is awful. 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 2 hours ago, Ji said: spring break before Easter is dumb I'm really surprised you are hanging in there this long. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 I'm really surprised you are hanging in there this long.You’ll be back if it’s interesting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: I’d bet my retirement that 95-96 will be one of his top analogs Yep, 95-96 would be an obvious bet for him if the PDO were to switch to positive just like that La Niña winter’s PDO switch. And then if he were to give up on the PDO switching, he could still fall back on 2010-1 with its strong -PDO Niña. Got to keep business going strong! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 8 minutes ago, GaWx said: Yep, 95-96 would be an obvious bet for him if the PDO were to switch to positive just like that La Niña winter’s PDO switch. And then if he were to give up on the PDO switching, he could still fall back on 2010-1 with its strong -PDO Niña. Got to keep business going strong! The best is when in a Nina like 2018 he uses a bunch of analogs like 2001 and 2011 that missed our area with snow but he predicts above normal snow here anyways. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 23 minutes ago, GaWx said: Yep, 95-96 would be an obvious bet for him if the PDO were to switch to positive just like that La Niña winter’s PDO switch. And then if he were to give up on the PDO switching, he could still fall back on 2010-1 with its strong -PDO Niña. Got to keep business going strong! Weenie post warning: Well if we go with a 2010-11 analog, maybe that boxing day redux would be a hit for our forum instead of a heartbreaking miss. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: @Jitodays weeklies sped up the progression by about 48 hours. Not shocking as guidance took a turn yesterday. It’s almost back to where it was 5 days ago. Not quite, still maybe 1-2 days slower than a week ago. Yes, it’s good to see the progression moving back up in time on the Euro Weeklies today. They have been persistent for several days in holding the good look for the last couple of weeks of March. What do you think that we need to look for in the coming days to have a better idea if this pattern actually has a solid chance this time or if it will be another head fake? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 41 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, it’s good to see the progression moving back up in time on the Euro Weeklies today. They have been persistent for several days in holding the good look for the last couple of weeks of March. What do you think that we need to look for in the coming days to have a better idea if this pattern actually has a solid chance this time or if it will be another head fake? Hard to say since last time it got all the way to day 7 before a spectacular collapse. Last time the trouble started imo with changes in the pacific. It started to develop a ridge in the central pacific which shifted everything north and east and disrupted the whole downstream pattern. But we already have that ridge now. I guess if we see signs it won’t actually weaken or quickly redevelops that would be the dagger. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Now I see that he appears to be getting the +PDO forecast idea from the WB CFS SSTa prog for Nov. based on 10 days of runs with a 1981-2010 base: look how cold it has the IO, the area between Japan and Hawaii, the S Pacific from E of Australia out several thousand miles, the strip from off the SE US to the N Atlantic, and the SW Atlantic to just off S. America. These 5 areas are mainly BN with coldest of -2 to sub -3! Then note the warmth off W N. America with as warm as +2 off Baja. That does look like a moderate +PDO being progged on the WB map for Nov: But compare the WB prog to TT’s CFS SSTa for Nov. (below), which is based on 3 days of runs with a 1984-2009 base: the IO’s coldest is -1.2 (vs -WB’s -2) and the other 4 areas areas are mainly warmer than normal with much of it +0.8 to +2.5 (vs WB’s mainly BN with coldest of -2 to sub -3)! In addition, the area off Baja that has its warmest of +2 on WB is only +1.0 at its warmest on the TT map and is cooler than most of the area from there to off Japan, making it a -PDO being forecasted on the TT Nov map: How can they be so different? Any opinions? The bases aren’t that different and I don’t see for relatively stable SSTa’s how 10 days worth of runs would make much difference vs 3 days of runs. I think the main problem may be with WB’s algorithms. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 So...when was the last time the PDO was positive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So...when was the last time the PDO was positive? For winter: -2014-5 and 2015-6 were solid +PDOs. -2016-7 and 2017-8 averaged pretty much neutral -2018-9 was only modestly -PDO -Strong to very strong -PDO since https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 18z GEFS tries to develop a west-based -NAO block by mid-March. Let's see if the Pacific pattern breaks down shortly after.. I think if we have a big -NAO develop, the Pacific will correlate and -PNA/+EPO will prevail.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 8 hours ago, GaWx said: Absolutely. He’s done this in the past in giving early hints about a warm winter forecast only to backtrack by trying to find a reason to go colder or at least sow doubt about warmth. When was the last time he went warm throughout the E 1/3 of the US and stuck with it? I can’t even recall anything resembling that. His cold bias for the E US is awful. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 3 hours ago, MDstorm said: Thank you for the maps! WB results for E 1/3 of US winters: 1. 2019-20: much too cold everywhere 2. 2020-1: excellent Mid-Atlantic to N. Eng to Michigan; too warm SE/TN Valley; much too warm lower Gulf states to Gulf coast 3. 2021-2: excellent N. Eng to Mich; slightly too cold Mid-Atlantic to Ohio Valley; too cold SE/TN Valley 4. 2022-3: much too cold everywhere 5. 2023-4: much too cold everywhere except only moderately too cold deep SE/pretty close FL In summary for these 5 winters: -never too warm Mid-Atlantic to New England to Michigan to Ohio Valley -too warm once SE/TN Valley/Gulf coast states -much too cold most or all areas 3 of 5 -did very well New England to Michigan twice My source for actual: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/ ——————————————- *Edit to include three added later: 2016-7: much too cold everywhere 2017-8: excellent overall/best of the 8; most areas excellent though SE slightly too cold 2018-9: much too cold everywhere except only moderately too cold Mich and only slight misses New England So, updated summary for all 8: -good to excellent most of New England to Michigan 4 of 8: kudos! -too warm one of 8 SE/TN Valley/Gulf coast states -virtually none of Mid-Atlantic to New England to Michigan to Ohio Valley too warm even once -combined with much too cold most or all areas 5 of 8 times suggests cold bias 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 WB 0Z EPS: may be too little too late but teleconnections are improving the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Thank you for the maps! WB results for E 1/3 of US winters: 1. 2019-20: much too cold everywhere 2. 2020-1: excellent Mid-Atlantic to N. Eng to Michigan; too warm SE/TN Valley; much too warm lower Gulf states to Gulf coast 3. 2021-2: excellent N. Eng to Mich; slightly too cold Mid-Atlantic to Ohio Valley; too cold SE/TN Valley 4. 2022-3: much too cold everywhere 5. 2023-4: much too cold everywhere except only moderately too cold deep SE/pretty close FL In summary for these 5 winters: -never too warm Mid-Atlantic to New England to Michigan to Ohio Valley -too warm once SE/TN Valley/Gulf coast states -much too cold most or all areas 3 of 5 -did very well New England to Michigan twice My source for actual:https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/ ——————————————- *Edit to include three added later: 2016-7: much too cold everywhere 2017-8: excellent overall/best of the 8; most areas excellent though SE slightly too cold 2018-9: much too cold everywhere except only moderately too cold Mich and only slight misses New England So, updated summary for all 8: -good to excellent most of New England to Michigan 4 of 8: kudos! -too warm one of 8 SE/TN Valley/Gulf coast states -virtually none of Mid-Atlantic to New England to Michigan to Ohio Valley too warm even once -combined with much too cold most or all areas 5 of 8 times suggests cold biasNot one map shows the i95 corridor ever in yellow lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 9 hours ago, GaWx said: Now I see that he appears to be getting the +PDO forecast idea from the WB CFS SSTa prog for Nov. based on 10 days of runs with a 1981-2010 base: look how cold it has the IO, the area between Japan and Hawaii, the S Pacific from E of Australia out several thousand miles, the strip from off the SE US to the N Atlantic, and the SW Atlantic to just off S. America. These 5 areas are mainly BN with coldest of -2 to sub -3! Then note the warmth off W N. America with as warm as +2 off Baja. That does look like a moderate +PDO being progged on the WB map for Nov: But compare the WB prog to TT’s CFS SSTa for Nov. (below), which is based on 3 days of runs with a 1984-2009 base: the IO’s coldest is -1.2 (vs -WB’s -2) and the other 4 areas areas are mainly warmer than normal with much of it +0.8 to +2.5 (vs WB’s mainly BN with coldest of -2 to sub -3)! In addition, the area off Baja that has its warmest of +2 on WB is only +1.0 at its warmest on the TT map and is cooler than most of the area from there to off Japan, making it a -PDO being forecasted on the TT Nov map: How can they be so different? Any opinions? The bases aren’t that different and I don’t see for relatively stable SSTa’s how 10 days worth of runs would make much difference vs 3 days of runs. I think the main problem may be with WB’s algorithms. Good question. They aren’t so different in certain domains like ENSO, IO, MC, and even off the US West coast. But in the extra-tropical west pacific they could not be more different. I think part of the answer is that the marine heat wave off Japan is an extreme climatological event that is neither reproducible or predictable by any climate model, let alone any seasonal forecasting models. Find a way to dissipate that marine heat wave, then maybe we have a chance at colder winters again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 13 hours ago, Ji said: You’ll be back if it’s interesting Obviously. I’m just saying I’m not looking for it like you are. I honestly don’t check the models anymore. I’ll pop in here every or day to see if something is brewing. People can call it reverse psychology or whatever they like, but I’ve shifted into work mode (my busiest period is from now until the primary in June). If we get one last hurrah of course I’ll be in dude. I’m just not actively searching like you are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 26 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Good question. They aren’t so different in certain domains like ENSO, IO, MC, and even off the US West coast. But in the extra-tropical west pacific they could not be more different. I think part of the answer is that the marine heat wave off Japan is an extreme climatological event that is neither reproducible or predictable by any climate model, let alone any seasonal forecasting models. Find a way to dissipate that marine heat wave, then maybe we have a chance at colder winters again. Is the heat wave located anywhere near where they are dumping all the radioactive water into the ocean? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 10 minutes ago, mdhokie said: Is the heat wave located anywhere near where they are dumping all the radioactive water into the ocean? The hottest SSTa of the marine heat wave is almost exactly where, and downstream of, Fukushima, the site from where they are dumping radioactive water. I haven’t come across any research that this is the cause, but I can’t seriously believe that this is a mere coincidence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 17 hours ago, psuhoffman said: We just can’t know This would have worked out 66 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 14 hours ago, stormtracker said: I'm really surprised you are hanging in there this long. If ppl weren't dangling the 1958 analog all season he would have thrown in the towel in early January as per usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 57 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Good question. They aren’t so different in certain domains like ENSO, IO, MC, and even off the US West coast. But in the extra-tropical west pacific they could not be more different. I think part of the answer is that the marine heat wave off Japan is an extreme climatological event that is neither reproducible or predictable by any climate model, let alone any seasonal forecasting models. Find a way to dissipate that marine heat wave, then maybe we have a chance at colder winters again. In addition to the extra-tropical W Pac, look at how much colder WB’s CFS map is vs the TT CFS map off the SE US, E of Australia, and in the W Atlantic off Argentina. All 4 of these areas have below normal/blue shades on the WB map and above normal/red shades on the TT map even though they’re both from the same model for the same month (November). I agree about the importance of the dissipation of that marine heatwave off Japan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 40 minutes ago, Terpeast said: The hottest SSTa of the marine heat wave is almost exactly where, and downstream of, Fukushima, the site from where they are dumping radioactive water. I haven’t come across any research that this is the cause, but I can’t seriously believe that this is a mere coincidence. This would be an amazing case study dealing with the weather pattern and the heat exchange from the ocean in that area to other areas. Very interesting for sure but what do you do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: The hottest SSTa of the marine heat wave is almost exactly where, and downstream of, Fukushima, the site from where they are dumping radioactive water. I haven’t come across any research that this is the cause, but I can’t seriously believe that this is a mere coincidence. Whoa, whoa hollld up...ya just dropper something there. And it may become a punchline here, lol, but now that ya mention it you can't help but wonder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 57 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Whoa, whoa hollld up...ya just dropper something there. And it may become a punchline here, lol, but now that ya mention it you can't help but wonder... I'm just the messenger. Look at where Fukushima is on Google Maps, and then compare that location against the warmest SST anomalies on those two CFS forecast maps @GaWx above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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