Weather Will Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 WB 18Z GFS and GEFS: Put all my chips on the Day 11 period and call it a winter. P19 is it!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 22 minutes ago, Weather Will said: So a + PDO could diminish La Niña effects next winter to give us some hope? if the PDO actually did flip it would change the calculation significantly on next winter. BUT....it would be incredibly rare for the PDO to actually flip heading into a Nina. It's more common for a Nina to cause a temporary -PDO even in a +PDO cycle. So while there are signs of this -PDO waning I would caution expecting it to actually flip positive. What might be more realisic is if the Nina causes the trend to halt and we get a near neutral or slightly -PDO next winter. THat would still be better than a crazy -PDO but not great. 2017 and 2018 were near neutral PDO years...that would be what we might expect if we get a near neutral PDO. However....IF, super duper emphasis on the if, we do flip the PDO and its legit positive next winter this would be the data on that... It's pretty rare, have to go all the way back to 1900 just to get 9 examples... but here is the data In a positive PDO Nina Baltimore averages 27" of snow and the median is 23" and of the 9 examples none were total duds, the least snow was 10", the next worst was 14", the rest were at least 17" or more with a few being well above normal snowfall with 1996 being the high end example. A positive PDO nina is rare but actually not nearly as bad as a -PDO nina. I would have to seriously rethink my expectations if we see the PDO flip positive. Again not just to near neutral but actually positive. But I have serious doubts given the rarity of that in a nina cycle. And man if we do get a +PDO and then we get a dreg snowless winter anyways...man this place will be a train wreck, not sure I'm ready to "find out" lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 I pointed out the day 15-16 ensembles today started to show a possible pattern change. But it’s also true guidance is can kicking and we can’t afford that at all. It’s probably already too late honestly. eps March 15 5 runs ago March 15 now Yea it still gets to the same place but now it takes until March 22 to get to where it was March 15 a few days ago. Oh geez. That’s dagger then. I thought you said a few posts ago that it was ahead of schedule lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Oh geez. That’s dagger then. I thought you said a few posts ago that it was ahead of schedule lol The 12z EPS was...the weeklies are based on the 0z run which was worse so.... make of that what you will. But regardless of one good 12z run the trend on the whole has been not good the last 5 days. Decide for yourself what you want to weight more...one 12z run but admitedly the latest guidance...or a 5 day trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Yeah, PDO's usually go in the direction of ENSO state like 85% of the time. Another thing too is, this La Nina is already heavily supporting -PNA.. Since the subsurface cooled, and the SOI flipped, this new High pressure pattern took over in the N. Pacific. so if that trend continues through the Spring and Summer, which I think it will, the PDO should drop further. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I saw a post from someone who has a method to predict saying it should flip in the next 1-2 years. I have no idea so all I can do is parrot. yeah i'd be pretty skeptical of any approach or methodology that wasn't peer reviewed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 We have a dig blue episode Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 and the gfs goes all in with a pattern change by day 12 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Maybe.. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 34 minutes ago, CAPE said: Maybe.. That’s the first wave that undercuts the eastern ridge as it starts to lift and merge with the Scandinavian ridge. Again this time the nao starts to go negative before the wave breaking. Doesn’t mean it’s right just a slightly different progression. It’s being acted on by heat fluxes on two sides this time. Normally I’d say the first wave isn’t the one. But March can be funny so who knows. EPS and gefs still have the progression overnight. I am itching to pull the trigger on this winter as soon as they give me any excuse but the last couple runs have actually left a glimmer of hope. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: ... but the last couple runs have actually left a glimmer of hope. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 17 minutes ago, cbmclean said: i can tell by the 4 hours between posts! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 GFS has the cape storm too.......maybe a fluke before the real pattern change around March 15th? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 And like shipwrecked men turning to sea water from uncontrollable thirst… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 pattern change is happening? Looks like an Aleutian low is about to migrate East with a nice blocking signature. March 18-21 1958 blizzard still on the table 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 6 minutes ago, Ji said: pattern change is happening? Looks like an Aleutian low is about to migrate East with a nice blocking signature. March 18-21 1958 blizzard still on the table We just can’t know 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 18 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Yeah, PDO's usually go in the direction of ENSO state like 85% of the time. Another thing too is, this La Nina is already heavily supporting -PNA.. Since the subsurface cooled, and the SOI flipped, this new High pressure pattern took over in the N. Pacific. so if that trend continues through the Spring and Summer, which I think it will, the PDO should drop further. I was curious about Bastardi saying something about the PDO possibly flipping for next winter. So, I just looked at the SSTa progs from the CFS, CANSIPS, and NMME for as far as the models go out (Nov to Jan). Anyone can do this easily and quickly. Whereas they all clearly show La Niña forming, none show anything even remotely suggesting a change to +PDO. If anything, they show a restrengthening of the -PDO with the very warm waters from Japan eastward through most of the Pacific persisting and the waters off our W coast cooling some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 6 minutes ago, GaWx said: I was curious about Bastardi saying something about the PDO possibly flipping for next winter. So, I just looked at the SSTa progs from the CFS, CANSIPS, and NMME for as far as the models go out (Nov to Jan). Anyone can do this easily and quickly. Whereas they all clearly show La Niña forming, none show anything even remotely suggesting a change to +PDO. If anything, they show a restrengthening of the -PDO with the very warm waters from Japan eastward through most of the Pacific persisting and the waters off our W coast cooling some. We know the PDO talk is just speculative. But it’s unlikely to flip positive heading into a Nina. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 We just can’t know Whenever cape says that….he knows 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 We know the PDO talk is just speculative. But it’s unlikely to flip positive heading into a Nina. He is trying to back track on his warm winter comments for the east coast. Disaster for business 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 1 minute ago, Ji said: He is trying to back track on his warm winter comments for the east coast. Disaster for business he should refocus on severe weather and hurricanes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 3 minutes ago, Ji said: He is trying to back track on his warm winter comments for the east coast. Disaster for business I was thinking that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: he should refocus on severe weather and hurricanes He spent 20 years cultivating a conservative snow weenie base audience. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 The irony is even if he is right about his crazy theories like underwater volcanoes and water vapor (that one is redundant) the effect is the same less snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 @Jitodays weeklies sped up the progression by about 48 hours. Not shocking as guidance took a turn yesterday. It’s almost back to where it was 5 days ago. Not quite, still maybe 1-2 days slower than a week ago. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 13 minutes ago, Ji said: He is trying to back track on his warm winter comments for the east coast. Disaster for business Absolutely. He’s done this in the past in giving early hints about a warm winter forecast only to backtrack by trying to find a reason to go colder or at least sow doubt about warmth. When was the last time he went warm throughout the E 1/3 of the US and stuck with it? I can’t even recall anything resembling that. His cold bias for the E US is awful. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Jitodays weeklies sped up the progression by about 48 hours. Not shocking as guidance took a turn yesterday. It’s almost back to where it was 5 days ago. Not quite, still maybe 1-2 days slower than a week ago. we have had several events lately between march 15-25. Actually more events than the last week of February lol so--why not. I think we track at least one more storm btw...the euro snowchart showed 10 members with some snow in the march 9-11 window from Leesburg. Uptick from 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Summary of this winter, Greek god Tantalus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 12 minutes ago, GaWx said: Absolutely. He’s done this in the past in giving early hints about a warm winter forecast only to backtrack by trying to find a reason to go colder or at least sow doubt about warmth. When was the last time he went warm throughout the E 1/3 of the US and stuck with it? I can’t even recall anything resembling that. His cold bias for the E US is awful. I’d bet my retirement that 95-96 will be one of his top analogs 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 spring break before Easter is dumb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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