stormy Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 32 degrees with light snow at 5:35. A heavy dusting with 1 - 3 inches in elevations above 2500 ft with traffic problems. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Just now, stormy said: 32 degrees with light snow at 5:35. A heavy dusting with 1 - 3 inches in elevations above 2500 ft with traffic problems. Wrong thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 GEFS keeps giving the digital snow, esp for eastern areas. How long will it last? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 GEFS keeps giving the digital snow, esp for eastern areas. How long will it last?Till 1/30 becomes 0/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 18z gfs has no interest in any kind of pattern change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 1 hour ago, Ji said: Till 1/30 becomes 0/0 Hmmmm… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Looks like some action out at hour 300 on the 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Today’s GEFS and GEPS actually are progressing things. The Atlantic shifts before the pac but at day 16 they’re showing signs of the Nina ridge weakening and first signs of the AK vortex shifting. It would happen quickly. With the -nao if the Nina ish pac ridge weakens that vortex in AK would retrograde quickly. It would probably split with a price dropping into the gulf if AK and another pulling west. That’s how the long wave pattern forcing would want it to go if not for the heat ridge to its west. So if that actually does come off it would happen quick. I still don’t know if it’s real or another head fake. Today was the day I was going to pull the plug if the pattern didn’t start to progress into the ensembles. And damnit it did. I was kinda wanting to just end this thing and call TOD. I’ve kinda moved on to other things. But obviously if a threat shows up I’ll track it. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Today’s GEFS and GEPS actually are progressing things. The Atlantic shifts before the pac but at day 16 they’re showing signs of the Nina ridge weakening and first signs of the AK vortex shifting. It would happen quickly. With the -nao if the Nina ish pac ridge weakens that vortex in AK would retrograde quickly. It would probably split with a price dropping into the gulf if AK and another pulling west. That’s how the long wave pattern forcing would want it to go if not for the heat ridge to its west. So if that actually does come off it would happen quick. I still don’t know if it’s real or another head fake. Today was the day I was going to pull the plug if the pattern didn’t start to progress into the ensembles. And damnit it did. I was kinda wanting to just end this thing and call TOD. I’ve kinda moved on to other things. But obviously if a threat shows up I’ll track it. I opened this thinking you would be calling it. I got the opposite. I guess we’ll see…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 4 minutes ago, anotherman said: I opened this thinking you would be calling it. I got the opposite. I guess we’ll see…. That was actually what I expected to do. I was having lunch and decided to look over the guidance expecting to call it. 0z looked like crap. I had my finger on the trigger then 12z looked better at the end. Ugh. But I’m ready. Any delay. And back off first hiccup and I’m pulling the trigger. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 I think the reason for less clippers and Miller A's is lack of +PNA, although even when that pattern is present, those two storm types are happening about 30% less of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I think the reason for less clippers and Miller A's is lack of +PNA, although even when that pattern is present, those two storm types are happening about 30% less of the time. They still happen. They just hit Vermont. The NS is too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Oops.. I meant to post it in the other thread. Oh well, might as well say that until that trough moves from Alaska, we will be in the 50s and 60s. Good news is LR models haven't been great this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Oops.. I meant to post it in the other thread. Oh well, might as well say that until that trough moves from Alaska, we will be in the 50s and 60s. Good news is LR models haven't been great this year. I can’t keep track of the discussions sometimes. Doesn’t matter other than our convo there was like 2 posts in here in the last 24 hours. day 15-16 there are signs of the pac finally shifting. It’s very preliminary if the ridge is weakening and the AK trough shows signs of weakening and shifting. It’s way out there. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 The pattern on the the latest Euro Weeklies continues to look potentially workable for the last 2 weeks of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The pattern on the the latest Euro Weeklies continues to look potentially workable for the last 2 weeks of March. is this really what the models see or is this just an average of a late season Nino? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The pattern on the the latest Euro Weeklies continues to look potentially workable for the last 2 weeks of March. For me I’m just ready for warmth by that point and given we are aiming for the warmest winter on record snow at the end of March feels unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 11 minutes ago, Ji said: is this really what the models see or is this just an average of a late season Nino? Who knows at this point? Time will tell if we get one last Winter Storm period to track or if we are just done tracking until next December 5th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 EPS also started to show signs at the end. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 EPS also started to show signs at the end. You’ll have to show me what you are seeing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 6 minutes ago, Ji said: You’ll have to show me what you are seeing. Sure. focus on the progression from the NAO back to the North Pacific. The Nina ridge is finally weakening and progressing. Look at the vacuum it’s leaving near the Aleutians at the end. Note the height tides in central Canada as the NAO goes negative. If that day 15 is correct, big if, the AK vortex will start to shift west as the Pac ridge vacates. It’s been acted on by the ridging developing in Canada. Without that Nina ridge there it will want to shift west. It’s about 48 hours away from looking like the weeklies there. Maybe even ahead by a day. Again I have no idea if that is correct. Last time the pattern change got all the way to like day 8 then collapsed. Just saying the ensembles today are showing early signs of the pattern change the weeklies are showing that’s all. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Last time the pattern change got all the way to like day 8 then collapsed. That was what made it worse than 2019 to me. That year the epic look hovered just outside d16. But this year it was moving nicely up in time and then.... Just so frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 58 minutes ago, cbmclean said: That was what made it worse than 2019 to me. That year the epic look hovered just outside d16. But this year it was moving nicely up in time and then.... Just so frustrating. I don’t think the guidance was seeing the western pacific heat surge. They had it but much weaker than it ended up being. Around Feb 10 suddenly 2 things changed. The MJO wave suddenly died and started showing signs of competing convection in bad places again. And the western pacific ridge started to go nuts. That ended up progressing into a Nina like ridge and completely destroyed the pacific pattern. That combo also shifted the jet north suddenly which killed the nao also. The wave that was supposed to end up in the 50/50 space instead ended up north in the nao space. The super crazy 50/50 turned into a +nao lol. Why the guidance missed those 2 things i don’t know. I’ve heard people say they weight canonical historical response to the Nino too much at range and that makes sense except I don’t know if that’s actually true. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 I pointed out the day 15-16 ensembles today started to show a possible pattern change. But it’s also true guidance is can kicking and we can’t afford that at all. It’s probably already too late honestly. eps March 15 5 runs ago March 15 now Yea it still gets to the same place but now it takes until March 22 to get to where it was March 15 a few days ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 JB pointed out EPS weekly can kicking today; most pessimistic post he has made all winter. Maybe March will surprise us in a good way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: JB pointed out EPS weekly can kicking today; most pessimistic post he has made all winter. Maybe March will surprise us in a good way... He is just trying to stall to milk as many more monthly subs as he can. He knows. A few days ago he made a post admitting what wEnt wrong and he said all the same things we’ve been discussing here. Maybe he reads this! But then he immediately goes it this time will be different. Yea ok. Right. Plus even if it is he knows it’s too late for 95 to get much snow. He is trying to bilk people out of more $ that’s all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: He is just trying to stall to milk as many more monthly subs as he can. He knows. A few days ago he made a post admitting what wEnt wrong and he said all the same things we’ve been discussing here. Maybe he reads this! But then he immediately goes it this time will be different. Yea ok. Right. Plus even if it is he knows it’s too late for 95 to get much snow. He is trying to bilk people out of more $ that’s all. Perhaps you are correct, he did say one positive thing (pun intended) if correct, the PDO may go positive next winter, first time I've heard that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Perhaps you are correct, he did say one positive thing (pun intended) if correct, the PDO may go positive next winter, first time I've heard that. I saw a post from someone who has a method to predict saying it should flip in the next 1-2 years. I have no idea so all I can do is parrot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I saw a post from someone who has a method to predict saying it should flip in the next 1-2 years. I have no idea so all I can do is parrot. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I saw a post from someone who has a method to predict saying it should flip in the next 1-2 years. I have no idea so all I can do is parrot. So a + PDO could diminish La Niña effects next winter to give us some hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now