CAPE Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 11 hours ago, CAPE said: Worth keeping an eye on. There is literally nothing else. GFS/GEFS has been pretty persistent indicating some trailing energy sliding eastward with colder air moving in. Euro leaves it back in the SW. One provides a chance for ongoing precip with cold coming in, and the other is the usual cold chasing rain. Big differences. GFS scoops up almost all the southern energy and brings it east with a sharp shortwave. Euro leaves much of it behind. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Pretty decent signal on the 6z GEFS. EPS and GEPS remain unenthused. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 We know how this will likely go, but it is inside of 7 days and there is nothing else except more LR pattern chasing. Hopium. Copium. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 1 hour ago, CAPE said: We know how this will likely go, but it is inside of 7 days and there is nothing else except more LR pattern chasing. Hopium. Copium. Op gfs targeting your back yard. Though, I think we know how this will go….cold air bleed will lag vs what’s progged and precip will be east of the area by the time it’s cold enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Out ahead of the system, could see some decent gusts on Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 14 hours ago, CAPE said: Eh, there are still multiple ways it can snow in late March. If you are talking about a big storm, then probably yes. I did mean an actual legit snowstorm. It’s gonna be late March. We’ve had a decent number of minor snows already. So in this specific scenario I’m not much interested in some 2” front end thump or clipper or whatever. If we’re going to get a big snow from a coastal I don’t think a typical low coming at us from the SW running into cold with a WAA dump will work. We’re going to need some stalled coastal bomb with a kick ass CCB and crazy rates to overcome a mediocre airmass at best I just don’t see us going from the current continental thermal profile to a legit cold one in late March no matter what the pattern. We’ve had trouble getting sustained cold from any pattern lately in mid winter for F sake. But its a misconception that I’m only a big game hunter. It’s just when we’re looking at day 15 crap as we’re often doing since the day 1-14 has looked god awful much of the time lol, it’s way easier to see signals for a big storm that some minor event. You can’t pick up on a fluke anafront or clipper or weak progressive boundary wave at range. Frankly we can’t even accurately pick up on bigger storms but at least we can see possible pattern markers sometimes. That’s why I mostly talk about big storms. And yes I do prefer a big snow to a small one duh. But once an event is in range I track a 2-4” snow all the same. I was active in the threads leading up to all the events this year even though none were big. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 We know how this will likely go, but it is inside of 7 days and there is nothing else except more LR pattern chasing. Hopium. Copium.1 in 30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Weak low pressure over southern Ohio will move southeast across west/central Va. this afternoon and evening. NAM/GFS/ECM and GEM all give accumulating snow across portions of Augusta late afternoon and evening. Surface temps. below 2000 ft. will be marginal though column temps. look fine. Accumulation expectations range from 2 - 6 inches. This will be an elevation event for accumulations. 2000- 4000' 2 - 6 inches, 1000 - 2000 ft. a dusting - 1 inch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 5 minutes ago, stormy said: Weak low pressure over southern Ohio will move southeast across west/central Va. this afternoon and evening. NAM/GFS/ECM and GEM all give accumulating snow across portions of Augusta late afternoon and evening. Surface temps. below 2000 ft. will be marginal though column temps. look fine. Accumulation expectations range from 2 - 6 inches. This will be an elevation event for accumulations. 2000- 4000' 2 - 6 inches, 1000 - 2000 ft. a dusting - 1 inch. If I were to drive out there this afternoon. Where would you go to see this happen? I was kinda thinking about hiking today. I'm near Annopoils but can drive out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 8 minutes ago, stormy said: Weak low pressure over southern Ohio will move southeast across west/central Va. this afternoon and evening. NAM/GFS/ECM and GEM all give accumulating snow across portions of Augusta late afternoon and evening. Surface temps. below 2000 ft. will be marginal though column temps. look fine. Accumulation expectations range from 2 - 6 inches. This will be an elevation event for accumulations. 2000- 4000' 2 - 6 inches, 1000 - 2000 ft. a dusting - 1 inch. None of the local nws offices are enthused about this. PIT has Davis getting 1.5” and Charleston has Snowshoe receiving about the same. So snow looks likely, but those higher end amounts seem not so likely. From Charleston… Lowering temperatures behind today`s front should support snow or a rain/snow mix to the north and along the higher terrain. Mainly rain is expected to the south, though some flakes could briefly mix in before precipitation ends. Snow accumulations of an inch or two are possible for portions of southeast Ohio and northwest West Virginia this morning, and in the higher elevations of the northeast mountains by the end of the day. Outside of these areas, any accumulation should be minimal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 I'm gonna be a pessimist on next week (not that it's some unpopular take, but I'm generally the eternal optimist...), because these frontal things always seem to end up the same around here in recent years. Looks like rain a week out, briefly get some snow on the back end looks as it gets towards and into meso range, 24 hours out it deteriorates a bit but still holds onto 1-2 inches for west of the bay, and then you wake up to the supposed changeover line passing over you on radar but the precip just dies. 0 to trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 31 minutes ago, baltosquid said: I'm gonna be a pessimist on next week (not that it's some unpopular take, but I'm generally the eternal optimist...), because these frontal things always seem to end up the same around here in recent years. Looks like rain a week out, briefly get some snow on the back end looks as it gets towards and into meso range, 24 hours out it deteriorates a bit but still holds onto 1-2 inches for west of the bay, and then you wake up to the supposed changeover line passing over you on radar but the precip just dies. 0 to trace. I think a trace is optimistic at this point lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 1 hour ago, dailylurker said: If I were to drive out there this afternoon. Where would you go to see this happen? I was kinda thinking about hiking today. I'm near Annopoils but can drive out there. Swift Run Gap on Rt 33 a few miles east of Elkton at the Skyline Drive is about 2400 ft.. North on the Skyline Drive would quickly put you up to 3000 ft. elevations. Good luck and have fun! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 2 hours ago, snowfan said: None of the local nws offices are enthused about this. PIT has Davis getting 1.5” and Charleston has Snowshoe receiving about the same. So snow looks likely, but those higher end amounts seem not so likely. From Charleston… Lowering temperatures behind today`s front should support snow or a rain/snow mix to the north and along the higher terrain. Mainly rain is expected to the south, though some flakes could briefly mix in before precipitation ends. Snow accumulations of an inch or two are possible for portions of southeast Ohio and northwest West Virginia this morning, and in the higher elevations of the northeast mountains by the end of the day. Outside of these areas, any accumulation should be minimal. The 06z NAM 3k gave some 3500 elevations 15 miles to my south up to 6 inches. It has backed way off at 12z and now puts the best snow a little north of me. The 12z GFS dropped from 3" to 1". Just a little conversational snow would be nice. March has historically dumped some heavy snow on my area. I have high hopes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 FWIW the guidance has sped up the progression on the Atlantic side. But the pacific has not. We would start seeing better tracks once the Atlantic shifts but we probably still won’t be cold enough until the trough in AK retrogrades west. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 FWIW the guidance has sped up the progression on the Atlantic side. But the pacific has not. We would start seeing better tracks once the Atlantic shifts but we probably still won’t be cold enough until the trough in AK retrogrades west. Looks like eps was closer to getting the pax better then the gefs but neither is ideal. Can’t believe the pac is screwing us in a Nino. It may never snow again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 6 minutes ago, Ji said: Looks like eps was closer to getting the pax better then the gefs but neither is ideal. Can’t believe the pac is screwing us in a Nino. It may never snow again That’s been true for a while. Both have similar timing wrt nao. But the eps has been 48-72 hours quicker getting that trough out of AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 That’s been true for a while. Both have similar timing wrt nao. But the eps has been 48-72 hours quicker getting that trough out of AK. I tried to bait you but you didn’t bite 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 27 minutes ago, Ji said: I tried to bait you but you didn’t bite What are you talking about the last 8 years have actually been snowy! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 GFS ensembles trended warmer today.. On March 3-4 on the 12z GEFS, the 570dm line goes north of Toronto! The big difference is the NAO-domain.. yesterday they were showing signs of blocking in the long range.. today, there is +NAO in the medium range, and neutral in the long range.. Agrees with my Natural Gas analogs, which I posted about yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Eps took a step back. Still has AK trough day 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 27 minutes ago, Ji said: Eps took a step back. Still has AK trough day 16 Yes, the AK trough is still there at day 15, but the trough is undercutting in the southern US. The undercutting “blue” on today’s 12z run has advanced further to the east into the western Carolinas this run vs. last run. Today’s run also doesn’t connect the southeast ridge with the northern ridge in the east that is lifting up into eastern Canada. There’s still work to do, but the first step is getting the massive eastern ridging booted out. 12z EPS top 0z EPS bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 56 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, the AK trough is still there at day 15, but the trough is undercutting in the southern US. The undercutting “blue” on today’s 12z run has advanced further to the east into the western Carolinas this run vs. last run. Today’s run also doesn’t connect the southeast ridge with the northern ridge in the east that is lifting up into eastern Canada. There’s still work to do, but the first step is getting the massive eastern ridging booted out. 12z today top The surface is very warm in that pattern.. warmer than 500mb implies. Here's the March correlation (opposite) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 About half the 12z GEFS members have rain changing to snow for the Thursday event. Weak signal on the GEPS, but more for Friday- maybe a trailing wave. Not much of an indication for anything frozen on the EPS outside of the western highlands. Someone should start a thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 About half the 12z GEFS members have rain changing to snow for the Thursday event. Weak signal on the GEPS, but more for Friday- maybe a trailing wave. Not much of an indication for anything frozen on the EPS outside of the western highlands. Someone should start a thread I’ve got no proof to back this up but feel like the GEFS has a tendency to be overeager with anafrontal situations. At least to my recollection 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’ve got no proof to back this up but feel like the GEFS has a tendency to be overeager with anafrontal situations. At least to my recollection Yeah I don't buy it. Just something to have fun with until it falls in line with the more skilled guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Yes, the AK trough is still there at day 15, but the trough is undercutting in the southern US. The undercutting “blue” on today’s 12z run has advanced further to the east into the western Carolinas this run vs. last run. Today’s run also doesn’t connect the southeast ridge with the northern ridge in the east that is lifting up into eastern Canada. There’s still work to do, but the first step is getting the massive eastern ridging booted out. 12z EPS top 0z EPS bottom What do the weeklies snow. Just hard to get coldWith this look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 18 minutes ago, Ji said: What do the weeklies snow. Just hard to get cold With this look The latest Euro Weeklies show the AK trough gone by the 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 The latest Weeklies still show a potentially workable pattern for the last 2 weeks of March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Moderate snow and 34 degrees at 4:45. Talked to a friend 20 miles northwest who reports .50" - 1.00". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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