Ji Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm more confident in that part...but without the pacific altering it won't be cold enough, and that part of the equation I am less confident. jb used the only model that showed the MJO going to phase 3 as his basis for this forecast today lol..the JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 5 minutes ago, Ji said: jb used the only model that showed the MJO going to phase 3 as his basis for this forecast today lol..the JMA you know he is a toolbox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: you know he is a toolbox i mean it has great support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 For those still holding out hope, the latest edition of the weeklies suggests the h5 pattern becomes favorable (with below normal temps) the last week of March. Potentially a period to watch for a trip to the western highlands for a winter storm. For the rest of the region, a non-zero chance, but good luck. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 was the can kicked here? I thought it was the week before 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 2 minutes ago, Ji said: was the can kicked here? I thought it was the week before The week before looks ok at h5, but temps transition from somewhat above to normal verbatim. Could be a chance in there, esp for inland areas at elevation. At this point given how awful these super LR tools have been, more likely the good looks will be delayed, or be complete fantasy and never materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Pass the salt, please. With a side of pickles and a glass vinegar on ice. Yum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 41 minutes ago, Ji said: was the can kicked here? I thought it was the week before I would say the can was kicked today.. Natural Gas fell 8%, I've found a high correlation with March above average temperatures in the NE. There does seem to be a lot pointing to a -NAO though, I think if the -PNA sustains past March 10th, a -NAO will develop with it. 12z GEFS has a nice west-based -NAO starting around the 8th, but let's see if that holds.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 The week before looks ok at h5, but temps transition from somewhat above to normal verbatim. Could be a chance in there, esp for inland areas at elevation. At this point given how awful these super LR tools have been, more likely the good looks will be delayed, or be complete fantasy and never materialize.I don’t care about sustained cold. I just want one snow event that’s is cold enough if a wave tracks to our south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 28 minutes ago, CAPE said: The week before looks ok at h5, but temps transition from somewhat above to normal verbatim. Could be a chance in there, esp for inland areas at elevation. At this point given how awful these super LR tools have been, more likely the good looks will be delayed, or be complete fantasy and never materialize. I’ll preface by saying I’m extremely skeptical still. But it’s worth pointing out a blocking regime in a March is historically not necessarily cold but can produce snow. If you look at the raw temps the week of a March 58 for example, temps are avg. if a blocked amplified wave gets forced under is in March that can work. That’s a lot of ifs though. Just throwing it out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I would say the can was kicked today.. Natural Gas fell 8%, I've found a high correlation for March above average temperatures in the NE. There does seem to be a lot pointing to a -NAO though, I think if the -PNA sustains past March 10th, a -NAO will develop with it. Context. Markets are wisely responding to the warm first 2 weeks which are the colder half of March and look like a torch! Even if we bet a colder back half and a few truly cold days and some snow March is going to end up below avg demand for nat gas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 What Ji said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Context. Markets are wisely responding to the warm first 2 weeks which are the colder half of March and look like a torch! Even if we bet a colder back half and a few truly cold days and some snow March is going to end up below avg demand for nat gas. Because models had been showing that for a while, I think it was already factored into the price. The Natural Gas market was jumping way before these models came within range. I think there was always potential for a near average mid-late March, and in my opinion that's what the move today was about.. Again though, long range weather forecasting methods should be able to beat that, ideally, or normally... that's the challenge given lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 hour ago, Ji said: i mean it has great support Why do you have to be repetitive. I’ve see the mjo talked about and posted 500 times. How many times are you going to talk about the mjo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 29 minutes ago, Ji said: I don’t care about sustained cold. I just want one snow event that’s is cold enough if a wave tracks to our south lol where did I say anything about sustained cold? Not happening the last half of March. But the pattern has to be such that cold enough air is available for frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: lol where did I say anything about sustained cold? Not happening the last half of March. But the pattern has to be such that cold enough air is available for frozen precip. I doubt we get cold enough for a typical storm. Any snow we get will have to come from a dynamically driven create your own cold scenario like March 58 or Palm Sunday 1942. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 The shut the blinds periods this winter Dec 1-29Jan 20-Feb 13Feb 22-March 15That is ridiculous 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 hour ago, CAPE said: For those still holding out hope, the latest edition of the weeklies suggests the h5 pattern becomes favorable (with below normal temps) the last week of March. Potentially a period to watch for a trip to the western highlands for a winter storm. For the rest of the region, a non-zero chance, but good luck. Thanks Cape! My thoughts recently are that we stay warmer than normal thru about March 10 and colder than normal the last 20 days of March with snow threats based on CFSv2 and weeklies. Certainly, inland western areas will be more favored for snow. My snow season doesn't end until April 10. 4000 ft. within 20 miles of me doesn't end until May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I doubt we get cold enough for a typical storm. Any snow we get will have to come from a dynamically driven create your own cold scenario like March 58 or Palm Sunday 1942. Eh, there are still multiple ways it can snow in late March. If you are talking about a big storm, then probably yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 18z GFS drops 5 inches of snow 25 miles to my northwest late tomorrow. 18z NAM gives 2-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Strong Miller A development March 3 gives Augusta County 4 inches of rain! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 2 hours ago, CAPE said: For those still holding out hope, the latest edition of the weeklies suggests the h5 pattern becomes favorable (with below normal temps) the last week of March. Potentially a period to watch for a trip to the western highlands for a winter storm. For the rest of the region, a non-zero chance, but good luck. WB EPS control 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 3 hours ago, paulythegun said: I know, I know, it's an anafront and will end up being a put on, a put on! like the Who said. But the system keeps trending more progressive on GEFS (slight step back at 12z) and that's the trend we want for an overrunning anafront whatever event right? The sun shines...and people forget. The snow packs...as the skier tracks. People forget Forget they're hiding Behind an Anafront. An anafront (it's a put on! it's a put on!) Worth keeping an eye on. There is literally nothing else. GFS/GEFS has been pretty persistent indicating some trailing energy sliding eastward with colder air moving in. Euro leaves it back in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Worth keeping an eye on. There is literally nothing else. GFS/GEFS has been pretty persistent indicating some trailing energy sliding eastward with colder air moving in. Euro leaves it back in the SW. So for clarification: Anafrontal stuff doesn't work much here because of the mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 WB EPS controlWorks for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So for clarification: Anafrontal stuff doesn't work much here because of the mountains? Anafrontal simply means a front that involves precip- eg ascending air, vs one that simply sweeps eastward with drier/colder air advecting in. Absent a mechanism to produce the the lift, yes the mountains play a role- downsloping and drying of the air as it comes eastward- in other words the usual cold chasing rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So for clarification stuff doesn't work much here Fixed 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 WB 18Z GEFS, 1 in 30 chance of snow next week with the front... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 WB 18Z GEFS, 1 in 30 chance of snow next week with the front...Works for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 31 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS, 1 in 30 chance of snow next week with the front... There are 5 members that have some snow in the region verbatim. Not great, but better than 1 in 30. If you are gonna post this crap at least be somewhat accurate. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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