RevWarReenactor Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 It’s weird how the long range guidance gets it so wrong. Not only was there no “”epic pattern” as advertised. But temps are in the 50’s and 60’s. Essentially a torch. You might need to go to the north Pole for snow. It’s not even close. In my opinion: It should make people question the validity and point of LR tracking. Really we had one good week this year and it was basically just a broken clock being right twice a day. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 End of 00z control starts to give us some blocking around the 8th. You can see how this could lead to a workable pattern by mid month or so. By then we’ll likely have had a few 60-70 degree days so people might be checked out, but I still wonder if we have 1 last miracle shot come mid month with the SSW etc End of EPS starting to move the heights towards Greenland. The weeklies give us a workable pattern once that trough out west finally heads east, we’ll see about that… . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 From the Weather Channel: start a tropical thread: Good Morning. It’s 100 days until the beginning of Atlantic Hurricane Season, and there are some troubling signs that we might be in for a very busy one. Read on in today’s newsletter to learn more, but here is one fact that really stands out: Surface temperatures in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic are at levels usually seen in June or July. To put it another way, they are so much warmer than usual that if you were to look at water temperatures alone, you’d say that hurricane season is already here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Is the cold air gone for good? I booked a spring break ski trip to upstate Vermont and its starting to look like a fail of a trip . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, mdhokie said: Is the cold air gone for good? I booked a spring break ski trip to upstate Vermont and its starting to look like a fail of a trip . I'll be at wisp on Sunday. Hopefully they will be snow making on Saturday. Looks plenty cold Friday - Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 44 minutes ago, mdhokie said: Is the cold air gone for good? I booked a spring break ski trip to upstate Vermont and its starting to look like a fail of a trip . Yes. It's apparently hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Hanging on for dear life from houses in the hood .l meant to post this yesterday morning. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 58 minutes ago, mdhokie said: Is the cold air gone for good? I booked a spring break ski trip to upstate Vermont and its starting to look like a fail of a trip . At this point you might want to root for warmer... spring skiing up there can be awesome. Soft snow, light jacket...what you don't want is a cold front after a warm up and you get a sheet of ice. I just hope they have enough base to make it to April. I got some good news from the MRI on my knee but even if rehab goes well I won't be able to get out there until April. In a typical year April is my favorite month up in Vermont and Maine actually...but it looks so freaking warm up there the next 2 weeks with possible big rain events...I wonder if they will have much base left by then. ETA: To explain, with the rain coming up there it would take a LOT of snow to actually cover the ice base that would develop if it gets cold again. They would need to make or get at least 18" to actually have good skiing conditions again. A lot of the snow initially would just blow or get skiid off the trails with hard ice under it. Following a thaw like that it typically takes 2 feet before conditions are good again. So your better bet is to root for it to stay warm and get nice soft spring slush. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 For laughs, still checking on the ECMWF Extended. Here are the last two runs showing March 8th 00z. And...shocker... The March 12th/forward pattern it's been advertising keeps moving forward as we get closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: At this point you might want to root for warmer... spring skiing up there can be awesome. Soft snow, light jacket...what you don't want is a cold front after a warm up and you get a sheet of ice. I just hope they have enough base to make it to April. I got some good news from the MRI on my knee but even if rehab goes well I won't be able to get out there until April. In a typical year April is my favorite month up in Vermont and Maine actually...but it looks so freaking warm up there the next 2 weeks with possible big rain events...I wonder if they will have much base left by then. ETA: To explain, with the rain coming up there it would take a LOT of snow to actually cover the ice base that would develop if it gets cold again. They would need to make or get at least 18" to actually have good skiing conditions again. A lot of the snow initially would just blow or get skiid off the trails with hard ice under it. Following a thaw like that it typically takes 2 feet before conditions are good again. So your better bet is to root for it to stay warm and get nice soft spring slush. 100% agree on slush. There's a right kind of spring slush where you haven't seen the freezing mark for a few days. It's way better than the freeze/unfreeze/freeze/unfreeze stuff. I went to Timberline the morning of the super bowl. Light rain, 50F at the bottom, felt almost like powder (just a bit slower and more tiring). Every slope was open. Very little ice outside of some shaded, north facing patches. PS: People in the west laugh at this sort of talk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 hour ago, paulythegun said: 100% agree on slush. There's a right kind of spring slush where you haven't seen the freezing mark for a few days. It's way better than the freeze/unfreeze/freeze/unfreeze stuff. I went to Timberline the morning of the super bowl. Light rain, 50F at the bottom, felt almost like powder (just a bit slower and more tiring). Every slope was open. Very little ice outside of some shaded, north facing patches. PS: People in the west laugh at this sort of talk A freeze thaw cycle can be good so long as it’s sunny and gets into the 40s. I had a great day at Killington last March that started in the 20s but they had a high in the mid 40s. By 10am south facing slopes softened up nice and by noon all slopes were soft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 A freeze thaw cycle can be good so long as it’s sunny and gets into the 40s. I had a great day at Killington last March that started in the 20s but they had a high in the mid 40s. By 10am south facing slopes softened up nice and by noon all slopes were soft. Good for maple sugaring, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Is it a good sign when our February 2024 pattern discussion is mostly about tropical, winter 2026, maple sugaring and ski conditions in northern new england? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Is it a good sign when our February 2024 pattern discussion is mostly about tropical, winter 2026, maple sugaring and ski conditions in northern new england? I suppose it is better than drugs and giant tomato worms..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Is it a good sign when our February 2024 pattern discussion is mostly about tropical, winter 2026, maple sugaring and ski conditions in northern new england? That’s a market bottom signal right there. (new weenie handbook entry) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 hours ago, paulythegun said: For laughs, still checking on the ECMWF Extended. Here are the last two runs showing March 8th 00z. And...shocker... The March 12th/forward pattern it's been advertising keeps moving forward as we get closer. Models always try to rush pattern flips...depending upon what the SSW does though we might find that things change faster than expected. Would not be exactly blown away if the 3/10-3/15 period ends up colder or much different looking at H5 than what ensembles will show over the next 5 days when its falling in the 11-15 span. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Is it a good sign when our February 2024 pattern discussion is mostly about tropical, winter 2026, maple sugaring and ski conditions in northern new england? …with a dash of reverse psychology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 11 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: I suppose it is better than drugs and giant tomato worms..... depends on the drugs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 You might be seeing the giant tomato worms because of the wrong drugs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You might be seeing the giant tomato worms because of the wrong drugs there is a banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You might be seeing the giant tomato worms because of the wrong drugs I think we've gone from the Sistine Chapel pattern to the Tomato Hornworm Pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 34 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: I suppose it is better than drugs and giant tomato worms..... Cannabis isn't a drug lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 hours ago, Chris78 said: I'll be at wisp on Sunday. Hopefully they will be snow making on Saturday. Looks plenty cold Friday - Sunday morning. Same, I'll be up Sat/Sun. Saturday night looks promising, if they are still attempting to make snow. Not sure how many more weekends they can hold on for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: At this point you might want to root for warmer... spring skiing up there can be awesome. Soft snow, light jacket...what you don't want is a cold front after a warm up and you get a sheet of ice. I just hope they have enough base to make it to April. I got some good news from the MRI on my knee but even if rehab goes well I won't be able to get out there until April. In a typical year April is my favorite month up in Vermont and Maine actually...but it looks so freaking warm up there the next 2 weeks with possible big rain events...I wonder if they will have much base left by then. ETA: To explain, with the rain coming up there it would take a LOT of snow to actually cover the ice base that would develop if it gets cold again. They would need to make or get at least 18" to actually have good skiing conditions again. A lot of the snow initially would just blow or get skiid off the trails with hard ice under it. Following a thaw like that it typically takes 2 feet before conditions are good again. So your better bet is to root for it to stay warm and get nice soft spring slush. Thanks, and hope your knee rehab goes well! Jay Peak is part of the Wisp group so our passes work up there. We did early April last year and had fun. Most glades were closed but it was still better than anything around here. Makes sense on the conditions, either we root for a mid March snow bomb or warm. Just not torch! I was getting freaked out by the warmth and big rains being shown, but the latest GFS is a lot less torchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 15 minutes ago, Ji said: there is a banter thread I think this is topical, the only way you're seeing any positive signs of snow is if you are on some pretty good drugs right now. Plus...as some have said, it is time to explore other previously unexplored factors and possible causes. Have we considered drugs? Maybe the right drugs could open up a window to some kind of shared consciousness where by we can actually control the weather. If snow weenies unite we could fix this! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 8 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Cannabis isn't a drug lol yes lets have this debate, this will go wonderful 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 23 minutes ago, Ji said: there is a banter thread Winter is over. You are in the banter thread. Just heard thunder out here by the way. Weird ass winter man. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 We have El Popo erupting in Mexico hitting 2 miles into the atmosphere. Between this and all the recent SWEs I'm sure we can muster a late season miracle. LFG! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I’d like to figure out how those 3 ensemble members did what they did. I imagine they string out the trough and slow down the bottom half. So you’re telling me there’s a chance? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I’d like to figure out how those 3 ensemble members did what they did. I imagine they string out the trough and slow down the bottom half. So you’re telling me there’s a chance? .P27 drops 4 feet so it might be skewing the mean lmao . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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