Ji Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 The MJO went through phases 3-4-5 the only time it was cold this Winter, Jan 11-21. The rest of the Winter was mostly warm for the CONUSSo repeat in March? 345 is the new 812 lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 44 minutes ago, Ji said: Can’t wait to see @stormtracker give us euro pbp at 2:42am lol Oh God, I just remembered that. Fuck no, that ain't happening. I got work at... ..nevermind. If there's a MECS/HECS approaching, fuck work. It's happening. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Alright show of hands: What masochists are gonna be in here tracking next winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 42 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The MJO went through phases 3-4-5 the only time it was cold this Winter, Jan 11-21. The rest of the Winter was mostly warm for the CONUS from December 22 to Jan 13 was in a cold phase 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Posting in the proper thread I mean this a long range discussion. Just super duper long range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 16 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: from December 22 to Jan 13 was in a cold phase And it induced this long wave pattern. The mjo can’t do anything about the fact the surface temps torched right through this period anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Is this the place to discuss the 70s for next week? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Alright show of hands: What masochists are gonna be in here tracking next winter? been here every winter since 01-02 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 10 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Alright show of hands: What masochists are gonna be in here tracking next winter? Why wouldn't we be here? I bet next winter tosses a surprise or two at us. It's akin to Vegas sports book odds....when all the money is on one side (in this case alot of pros throwing next winter in the garbage saying not even a remote shot) that's when the upsets tend to happen. Overall probably a crud pattern but I'm sure we sneak a handful of trackable events in there. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 10 hours ago, Rvarookie said: Is this the place to discuss the 70s for next week? Might as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 32 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Might as well March is the new April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 So winter is over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 So winter is over?Yes, but only until there’s another system to track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, RVAman said: So winter is over? Yes. There is nothing coming to save us. People are hoping for a March fluke. Why should anything change? End this misery and just root for 70's. We want off this ride. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Wow. Thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 0z GFS looked like it spawned a hurricane lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Gfs has a goofy anafrontal wave around March 1-3. Hits NE good, it’s one way to score a miracle in a crap pattern though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 wouldn't shock me to see blocking return in some fashion in mid-late March. a brief reversal of 10mb winds already occurred, and another is expected to occur during the first week of March. the upcoming 500mb pattern fits that of the 2018 and 2023 blocking events quite well, which were also from SSWs. not sure if it means any more winter weather, but it's something to note 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 FWIW the blocking on long range guidance evolve form heat fluxes initially assoxiated with Scandinavian ridging. This is a more common and stable way to get blocking than the wave breaking attempt earlier this month. I am well aware of the climo limitations we will face in late March. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 32 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yes. There is nothing coming to save us. People are hoping for a March fluke. Why should anything change? End this misery and just root for 70's. We want off this ride. That’s what we won’t get. 40s and wet yes. Clean 70s. Nah…maybe a day or 4… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 59 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: wouldn't shock me to see blocking return in some fashion in mid-late March. a brief reversal of 10mb winds already occurred, and another is expected to occur during the first week of March. the upcoming 500mb pattern fits that of the 2018 and 2023 blocking events quite well, which were also from SSWs. not sure if it means any more winter weather, but it's something to note I was just noticing how common this PNA pattern is Feb 22-Mar 5, since 2013. I came up with 7 analogs (64% of dataset). and the roll forward into March carries a >+200dm -PNA! https://ibb.co/JkDgZ6J But the analogs also develop a west-based -NAO (which agrees with Stratosphere warming +time). Actually gives the NE almost a below normal March. https://ibb.co/yyJxPgw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I don't mind having troughs digging into the SW, US, to be honest. That sets us up for future Winters. I made a prediction a long time ago The warmth has actually gone extreme in the last 2 Winters, so I think we have knocked a good amount of this "5 year variable" out, although I still wouldn't be surprised if the average of the next 3 Winters is above average in the same area. I found on micro and macro-scales, pressure in the SW leads us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Persistent DMV snow hole persists through March on latest WB EPS control run, mean not any better. Guess the good news is there is heavier snow not too far north, south, east, and west!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Need an eye roll reaction symbol 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Need an eye roll reaction symbol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 18 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Persistent DMV snow hole persists through March on latest WB EPS control run, mean not any better. Guess the good news is there is heavier snow not too far north, south, east, and west!!!! La Niña 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Need an eye roll reaction symbol Mozart says...to that 46 day ensemble control snow map: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I have not taken my heat mats off my stone walkway yet. Will wait a few more weeks to see what it looks like.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Mozart says...to that 46 day ensemble control snow map: He and his fucking Harpsichord using ass can go suffer eternal La Niña and a SER. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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