SnowGoose69 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Unfortunately my research shows there is a lag time wrt fading la nina patters. There is absolutely no evidence that a La Nina that fades towards neutral during the winter produces an increase probability of snow later in winter here. In actuality, the Nina's that fit that category had lower snowfall in Feb/March than La Nina's that did not fade. Snowfall can be a fluke so I also looked at the H5 patterns, and saw no evidence the canonical Pacific La Nina pattern was more likely fade late in winters where the La Nina faded. I can accept what you are saying about a fading El Nino might be true. Perhaps an el nino patter breaks down faster and there is no lag. But there have been examples of fading el nino's where the canonical nino pac didn't break down until well after the nino SST's did. I would have to look into it more to try to understand the why behind the what. ETA: Also...there is some evidence that a neutral following a nina is even worse than a nina. So that might explain why a fading nina does us no good. 89-90/96-97/01-02/11-12/12-13 were all relatively bad. I am not sure a neutral after a Nina would be bad but they do tend to be and often times they suck for a large section of the country...01-02, 11-12, 12-13 were pretty much bad in large sectors of the nation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: 89-90/96-97/01-02/11-12/12-13 were all relatively bad. I am not sure a neutral after a Nina would be bad but they do tend to be and often times they suck for a large section of the country...01-02, 11-12, 12-13 were pretty much bad in large sectors of the nation. I can’t always prove the why behind the what. I can simply find statistical correlations. In the last 40 years our snowfall in enso neutral following nina years has been the worst category. Worse than Nina’s and other neutrals and obviously ninos. My only theory as to why is a weakened Nina lag. In an actual Nina sometimes the pac ridge can be poleward and in those cases we can get cold and some snow. It’s still northern stream dominant so big mecs+ level storms are rare south of 40* and it’s hard for us to go above avg without any big storms but at least they aren’t awful winters with near median snowfall. I think in a neutral with a Nina lag we seem to get a weaker flat Nina pac ridge (like what’s coming the next 2 weeks) and that’s the worst often with a trough to its north over AK! We get a continent flooded with warmth AND an eastern ridge. Shit the blinds pattern for any snow chances south of Montreal. We would be better off with a stronger Nina response and perhaps a poleward ridge at times. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 @SnowGoose69 here is the Jan/Feb composite h5 for all neutrals following a Nina. let me vomit. We’d be way better off with a stronger Nina ridge than that puke there! Last year we had some discussion that last winter behaved more like a neutral after a Nina and looks a lot more like that comp above than the Nina comp with a stronger pac ridge. The Nina was very weak and fading by winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @SnowGoose69 here is the Jan/Feb composite h5 for all neutrals following a Nina. let me vomit. We’d be way better off with a stronger Nina ridge than that puke there! Last year we had some discussion that last winter behaved more like a neutral after a Nina and looks a lot more like that comp above than the Nina comp with a stronger pac ridge. The Nina was very weak and fading by winter. That will definitely suck if it goes down like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @SnowGoose69 here is the Jan/Feb composite h5 for all neutrals following a Nina. N. Hemisphere looks colder. That's about the only correlation I'm willing to make with 6 examples and one of the important inputs being "neutral". I wonder if Neutral after El Nino the N. Hemisphere looks warmer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: N. Hemisphere looks colder. That's about the only correlation I'm willing to make with 6 examples and one of the important inputs being "neutral". I wonder if Neutral after El Nino the N. Hemisphere looks warmer? It looks colder because several of those years are from a colder period. That’s all imo. The biggest take away between that and the Nina h5 is there tends to be a flatter pac ridge and a more +AO. But that correlates. A poleward ridge can lead to heat fluxes that weaken the TPV and can foster blocking. In a flat pac ridge the faster flat jet actually speeds up the TPV and precludes blocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It looks colder because several of those years are from a colder period. That’s all imo. Satellite data set is 48-20, makes 1984 the middle. 5/6 are after that date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It looks colder because several of those years are from a colder period. That’s all imo. The biggest take away between that and the Nina h5 is there tends to be a flatter pac ridge and a more +AO. But that correlates. A poleward ridge can lead to heat fluxes that weaken the TPV and can foster blocking. In a flat pac ridge the faster flat jet actually speeds up the TPV and precludes blocking. well we dont have to worry about a neutral from a nina this winter lol. We will leave that for the disaster winter of 2025-2026. This is super unscientific but we are just due--maybe next year is a shocker--like this one was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Here's the Nino 3.4 +12 months Default is + so warmer general Hemisphere 500mb.. somewhat the same Pacific pattern. +AO is probably the biggest variable and that carries a max correlation of 0.18, which could be near random with 75 years dataset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Satellite data set is 48-20, makes 1984 the middle. 5/6 are after that date. Those plots use 1990-2020 climo means though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Those plots use 1990-2020 climo means though. Really? It must have updated.. weird because they go back to 1948. Must be cold 80% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Really? It must have updated.. weird because they go back to 1948. Must be cold 80% of the time. I think they updated last year. Ya you have to adjust for climo changes. This is the mean of we remove years prior to 1990. The only place it’s cold is where we don’t want it to be lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think they updated last year. Ya you have to adjust for climo changes. This is the mean of we remove years prior to 1990. The only place it’s cold is where we don’t want it to be lol. I still think that's just La Nina cold.. not enough examples to make conclusions about the AO. After 20-25 examples, I think that would look more neutralized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 17 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I still think that's just La Nina cold.. not enough examples to make conclusions about the AO. After 20-25 examples, I think that would look more neutralized. I get what you’re saying but there hasn’t been a single snowy anomaly out of 6 chances. And the pattern is pretty consistent not like a mean from different variable anomalies. It’s possible we just got unlucky 6 straight times but I doubt it. Also, the pattern fits a logical explanation. I can see the why behind the what even if there isn’t enough data to prove it with statistical significance yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 34 minutes ago, Ji said: well we dont have to worry about a neutral from a nina this winter lol. We will leave that for the disaster winter of 2025-2026. This is super unscientific but we are just due--maybe next year is a shocker--like this one was If the PDO flips by next fall I will entertain that maybe a 1996 anomaly is within the realm of possibility. But that has no chance in this current pacific base state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 37 minutes ago, Ji said: well we dont have to worry about a neutral from a nina this winter lol. We will leave that for the disaster winter of 2025-2026. This is super unscientific but we are just due--maybe next year is a shocker--like this one was You’re right. Next year we get 2017 followed by 2002. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 You’re right. Next year we get 2017 followed by 2002. I’m sure 2003 isn’t after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 36 minutes ago, Ji said: I’m sure 2003 isn’t after that I’ve given up on anything much in this -pdo. Yea we will keep getting some snow. Table scraps. But this is it. But can you imagine if this continues after the PDO flips? We better get a snowy winter quick after the PDO goes positive or it will be real depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 I’ve given up on anything much in this -pdo. Yea we will keep getting some snow. Table scraps. But this is it. But can you imagine if this continues after the PDO flips? We better get a snowy winter quick after the PDO goes positive or it will be real depressing. What physically needs to happen for it to go positive? Like what will flip it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 22 minutes ago, Ji said: What physically needs to happen for it to go positive? Like what will flip it? Posting in the proper thread 2 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 WB latest EPS still looks good to me third week of March. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 19 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB latest EPS still looks good to me third week of March. The improved look begins during the week of the 9th to the 16th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 24 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB latest EPS still looks good to me third week of March. Here are the temps for that period. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 12z GEFS has the Aleutian High near +400dm on 2/23, then goes through 4 reloads going out into March.. over +250dm the whole time on the ensemble mean.. it's going to start warming up real quick. After the next few days, expect temps to start busting high. Might as well shoot for another 80+F temp in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 The improved look begins during the week of the 9th to the 16th.How is this going to work with crappy mjo phases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 19 minutes ago, Ji said: How is this going to work with crappy mjo phases And after the time change. Nothing good happens after that. 1130 for GFS run? Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 And after the time change. Nothing good happens after that. 1130 for GFS run? Nope. Can’t wait to see @stormtracker give us euro pbp at 2:42am lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Ji said: Can’t wait to see @stormtracker give us euro pbp at 2:42am lol 27 minutes ago, Ji said: How is this going to work with crappy mjo phases I’m is NC foothills near VA border. I have a question about the MJO. JFM has 1,2,3&8 as cold phases. FMA has the same cold phases. MAM has 1,2,3,4&7 as cold. so which one do we go by in March? Thansk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 7 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 The MJO went through phases 3-4-5 the only time it was cold this Winter, Jan 11-21. The rest of the Winter was mostly warm for the CONUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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