brooklynwx99 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah activity is largely suppressed. Guidance is forecasting it to emerge in phase 4 in the LR and extrapolating, enhanced convection. There are other mechanisms that have significant influence on the NPAC jet. What's the current/forecasted state of EAMT? this is positive, no? you'd think you'd keep the extended jet here, but it is poleward into AK... go figure. then it looks negative after, so the retraction makes sense 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 hour ago, snowfan said: Warm/Wet? Hopefully wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is positive, no? you'd think you'd keep the extended jet here, but it is poleward into AK... go figure. then it looks negative after, so the retraction makes sense Could the marine heat wave off Japan have anything to do with this? If it’s not MJO4, if it’s not EAMT, then what…? Thinking it through physically, it kind makes sense to me that the marine heat wave could be pushing the extended pac jet poleward so it goes over a la nina instead of under as it would in a canonical nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Could the marine heat wave off Japan have anything to do with this? If it’s not MJO4, if it’s not EAMT, then what…? PDO definitely has something to do with it, just thought the Nino would be a bigger factor in forcing a +PNA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: PDO definitely has something to do with it, just thought the Nino would be a bigger factor in forcing a +PNA I thought so, too, when I did my outlook. It looked as though the pdo was becoming less and less negative, and was sure the nino would win out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Wonder if the transition from El Nino to La Nina killed our snow chances in Feb. Seems like the Pacific is rapidly transitioning to La Nina state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 13 hours ago, psuhoffman said: JB says the hecs is coming Found it. PSU2 storm? It's happening ! this time. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 15 minutes ago, CAPE said: Found it. PSU2 storm? It's happening ! this time. It would be hilarious if we somehow got some fluke event at night that racked up like 12" - 16" of snow then we melted off in to the 70s in 3 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It would be hilarious if we somehow got some fluke event at night that racked up like 12" - 16" of snow then we melted off in to the 70s in 3 days. That would be mother nature screwing with us for the fun of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Wrong thread everyone! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It would be hilarious if we somehow got some fluke event at night that racked up like 12" - 16" of snow then we melted off in to the 70s in 3 days. 13 minutes ago, Terpeast said: That would be mother nature screwing with us for the fun of it. you know its happening now. book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 35 minutes ago, CAPE said: Found it. PSU2 storm? It's happening ! this time. If I ever get a match 58 redux here I don’t care what the rest of winter was like it’s an A. There was no reporting station right her that winter but Westminster recorded 32”. One of my neighbors whose father was in Manchester for that storm says it was 4 feet! Possible there were some reports of up to 50” now far from here and in marginal temp storms I do a lot better than Westminster. But I get that a sloppy 10” in the cities that melted the next day from a perfect track storm that could have been 30” in Feb would just be like dirt kicked in their eyes at that point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Wrong thread everyone! Sorry I saw the discussion between Brooklyn and others and thought we were in the other thread. I just hit reply. Do you want me to move my response to Brooklyn over to the other thread? eta: @brooklynwx99 has been away a bit and probably doesn’t know about the other thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 If you can that’d be great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If you can that’d be great Done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Found it. PSU2 storm? It's happening ! this time. I’ll be in Edinburgh, Scotland. I’d love to see some snow while I’m there. Anyone have the weeklies for the UK? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 9 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: I’ll be in Edinburgh, Scotland. I’d love to see some snow while I’m there. Anyone have the weeklies for the UK? Nice. Take a trip NW to the highlands and its pretty likely you will see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Found it. PSU2 storm? It's happening ! this time. Strong signal for day 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 gfs shows blue on march 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 gfs shows blue on march 1stI hear the CFS is active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: I hear the CFS is active yes. Already shared by certain people on social media 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Looks red. Might be AN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Looks red. Might be AN.Misleading 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is so lol worthy at this point, I don't even know where to begin. what the fuck is THAT why is there a strong, flat Aleutian ridge at the end of a strong Nino February? so annoying Central-ENSO-subsurface has +correlation to PNA pattern at 0-time. Even though it tests back historically at about a 0.3 correlation with the Aleutian High/Low, it is higher than all other ENSO measurements (850mb winds, 200mb winds, OLR, SLP, SSTs, etc.) I've plotted it all out. You will say that in some past Strong Nino examples we did have a monster N. Pacific low though although the subsurface was cooling... I think I mentioned this in early February when the SOI was in the -40's/-50s, that, that was the only thing keeping that GOA low going at that point, and if we wanted to see El Nino persistence, the SOI better stay that strong.. it went to the single digits 5 days ago, and switched to positive today. Part of the answer probably rests in that we never really saw a +PNA pattern for the El Nino before the Winter (Apr-Nov). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Wonder if the transition from El Nino to La Nina killed our snow chances in Feb. Seems like the Pacific is rapidly transitioning to La Nina state. In my opinion, it has. This is why last year was especially frustrating, because a similar transition from La Nina to El Nino took place mid/late Winter. It did give us some nice -EPO in March though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: In my opinion, it has. This is why last year was especially frustrating, because a similar transition from La Nina to El Nino took place mid/late Winter. It did give us some nice -EPO in March though. Unfortunately my research shows there is a lag time wrt fading la nina patters. There is absolutely no evidence that a La Nina that fades towards neutral during the winter produces an increase probability of snow later in winter here. In actuality, the Nina's that fit that category had lower snowfall in Feb/March than La Nina's that did not fade. Snowfall can be a fluke so I also looked at the H5 patterns, and saw no evidence the canonical Pacific La Nina pattern was more likely fade late in winters where the La Nina faded. I can accept what you are saying about a fading El Nino might be true. Perhaps an el nino patter breaks down faster and there is no lag. But there have been examples of fading el nino's where the canonical nino pac didn't break down until well after the nino SST's did. I would have to look into it more to try to understand the why behind the what. ETA: Also...there is some evidence that a neutral following a nina is even worse than a nina. So that might explain why a fading nina does us no good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Unfortunately my research shows there is a lag time wrt fading la nina patters. There is absolutely no evidence that a La Nina that fades towards neutral during the winter produces an increase probability of snow later in winter here. In actuality, the Nina's that fit that category had lower snowfall in Feb/March than La Nina's that did not fade. Snowfall can be a fluke so I also looked at the H5 patterns, and saw no evidence the canonical Pacific La Nina pattern was more likely fade late in winters where the La Nina faded. I can accept what you are saying about a fading El Nino might be true. Perhaps an el nino patter breaks down faster and there is no lag. But there have been examples of fading el nino's where the canonical nino pac didn't break down until well after the nino SST's did. I would have to look into it more to try to understand the why behind the what. ETA: Also...there is some evidence that a neutral following a nina is even worse than a nina. So that might explain why a fading nina does us no good. I think there might not be enough examples.. there is so much happening all the time.. ENSO is just one part. Sometimes you have to just project out ideas that make sense going forward. I did notice the STJ got really juicy last March. I dont know about your snow and temperatures though, I've just tested it vs the N. Pacific pattern. The correlation wasn't really high, but it started to work this year so.. I bet if that ENSO-subsurface cold pool wanes, the -PNA/Aleutian High will wane too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 5 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: I mean I can think of one reason the atmosphere may be behaving differently than past times… Aliens? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Aliens? Underwater volcanoes 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 12z GEFS has the Aleutian High near +400dm on 2/23, then goes through 4 reloads going out into March.. over +250dm the whole time on the ensemble mean.. it's going to start warming up real quick. After the next few days, expect temps to start busting high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now