CAPE Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 23 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, I’m not saying that I believe them, but I’m simply just sharing what the model run shows. Either way, Winter weather tracking is all over by later next month. Might as well track it until the bitter end! The weeklies have been fucking with us for months with these favorable h5 Nino-ish looks. With one or 2 brief exceptions, it remains a unicorn. But yes come late March, we will probably get a blockbuster slow moving Miller A with copious amounts of cold rain. Maybe we can all meet up At Canaan. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: The weeklies have been fucking with us for months with these favorable h5 Nino-ish looks. With one or 2 brief exceptions, it remains a unicorn. But yes come late March, we will probably get a blockbuster slow moving Miller A with copious amounts of cold rain. Maybe we can all meet up At Canaan. As long as we have a background -pdo state, these canonical nino looks on weeklies shouldn’t be taken seriously. I want to see the pacific flip first, whenever that may be. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The latest Weeklies get the patten workable by the week of the 11th to the 18th. The pattern on the Weeklies then continues to look workable through the end of March. Problem is workable at that point isn’t going to cut it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 JB says the hecs is coming 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: JB says the hecs is coming Still waiting for the Sistine Chapel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: That is a massive -PNA (in the Pacific) through Day 16 on the 12z GEFS! 2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I think it will verify. Everyone pretty much knows that it's not going to snow for the next 16 days. That would be much more difficult without models. Humans like to be challenged, because that's how they learn best. I think you’re talking about the ridge in the central pacific near the Aleutian's right? When people say PNA they are usually talking about the ridge/trough configuration in the Western US. I think you’re talking about the Nina type central pac ridge, which leads to a downstream -pna of course which leads to a SER. But if we can get a -nao in March that isn’t as much an issue. As the wavelengths shorten the nao can force a trough in the east dispute that ridge. March 2018 was the most recent example. Last March the nao did its job, but what killed is was there was no cold at all anywhere and the pacific ridge lifted so poleward the jet cut under and blasted pac puke across. But the nao did suppress the eastern ridge! It saved the ski season in New England! That’s why sometimes we can get snow in March in an otherwise awful Nina year. However, I have my doubts the kind of block we need ever materializes. The guidance has teased it all winter and it’s only briefly come to fruition and both times quickly and inexplicably collapsed. The models aren’t awful. They see the weak SPV, -QBO, and Nino. The logical assumption is -nao. Something is clearly running interference. Maybe the WV from Tonga. Maybe the pacific base state. Dunno. But I’m skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 JB says the hecs is coming Did he really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, Ji said: Did he really? I took a look at his blog today, out of morbid curiosity wanted to see how he finally conceded and had either his typical melt down or if he went “I nailed this or that but the pattern never cooperated defiance”. Just for fun. Instead he was holding on to the idea the only reason his snow forecast hadn’t hit us the east hadn’t had the big one but that since everything else has gone to form it’s probably coming. But he was in that stubborn defiant mode he gets into when he knows it’s all going sideways. He likely actually did think this was going to be a big year for him like 2003 and 2010 and he could ride this for another 3 years! He is just trying to get one more month of paid subscribers at this point. He knows how unlikely a hecs is in DC to NYC once into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think you’re talking about the ridge in the central pacific near the Aleutian's right? Yeah, you're right.. shorter wavelengths in March make the downstream Aleutian islands ridge not have as much effect as it would in January. NAO is the bigger variable in March if they are both the same strength, although the Greenland ridge can spill into the NE sometimes. But what you don't want to see is that trough over Alaska and the Bering Strait.. just about all times of the year that is a warm to very warm pattern. Models do have have that feature in the long range.. this isn't like last March where the ridge was building up into Alaska. The N. Pacific Aleutian islands ridge that I am talking about, that looks so impressive on MR-LR models, is flat and south-based, and has a trough over top of it. That could give us 50s and 60s high temps for some time, if the -NAO doesn't depress the pattern. We have had +WPO and +EPO a lot of the Winter (^opposite temperature graph as the map above).. some research I've done suggest that they are heavily -PDO correlated, although there certainly could be other reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 I took a look at his blog today, out of morbid curiosity wanted to see how he finally conceded and had either his typical melt down or if he went “I nailed this or that but the pattern never cooperated defiance”. Just for fun. Instead he was holding on to the idea the only reason his snow forecast hadn’t hit us the east hadn’t had the big one but that since everything else has gone to form it’s probably coming. But he was in that stubborn defiant mode he gets into when he knows it’s all going sideways. He likely actually did think this was going to be a big year for him like 2003 and 2010 and he could ride this for another 3 years! He is just trying to get one more month of paid subscribers at this point. He knows how unlikely a hecs is in DC to NYC once into March. I think the first week of March can produce that kind of storm he wants but it’s not happening this March so your left with hoping for a March 58 event. You never know……..he could be right. For as wet as this winter has been…I don’t think we have had a miller a track since December. So maybe we are due before El Niño folds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The logical assumption is -nao. Something is clearly running interference. Maybe the WV from Tonga. Maybe the pacific base state. Dunno. But I’m skeptical. I'd be interested to know why we aren't getting -NAO's too, especially sustained -NAO's. The CPC has us +1.10 for DJ, and it looks like another >+1.00 month for February as per their method of calculating. Going back in their stats, we have had 1 -NAO January since 2011 (12/13 years positive!), and 1 -NAO February since 2011 (12/13 years). That's crazy. I think their calculations is more based around SLP near the Azores, but wow! Beyond that, when the NAO goes negative on a daily basis, it's usually no more than 10-14 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Well, here ya go.. +12 months PDO (chart maps default is positive, so negative PDO is opposite) I would say since it's performing strong relative to Strong Nino right now makes it a peak-time index. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 What I find so disappointing the past 2 years is how long it takes to get out of a crap pattern. Weeks and weeks to get something workable. Only takes a few days to wreck a good one lol.Yep we are looking at another long stretch of shit te the blinds. Now through mid March smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 And here we go!Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 And here we go!Sent from my SM-A515U using TapatalkThe guy truly is completely detached from reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, anotherman said: The guy truly is completely detached from reality. Underwater volcanoes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 7 hours ago, Ji said: And here we go! Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk And by players on the field, he means potential subscribers. There is absolutely nothing to get excited about or interested in right now. And given what happened last time we started warm and it took weeks to cool off enough to snow, good luck trying to run that back in March, if that's even the pattern that evolves, which it probably won't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Warm/Wet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 GEFS persists with this look for early March. Weak signal for frozen with advertised temps slightly below average. GEPS has it to a lesser degree, but the EPS doesn't like it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 this is so lol worthy at this point, I don't even know where to begin. what the fuck is THAT why is there a strong, flat Aleutian ridge at the end of a strong Nino February? so annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is so lol worthy at this point, I don't even know where to begin. what the fuck is THAT why is there a strong, flat Aleutian ridge at the end of a strong Nino February? so annoying Suppressed MJO predicted to emerge again near the MC, Pacific jet retraction. Ofc the PDO. Much more Nina like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, CAPE said: Suppressed MJO predicted to emerge again near the MC, Pacific jet retraction. Ofc the PDO. Much more Nina like. yeah, i get the mechanisms like the jet retraction, but like... why? a -PNA caused by a flat Aleutian ridge is the last thing I would expect. even the warm super Ninos had this timeframe warm because of looks like this. absolutely maddening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah, i get the mechanisms like the jet retraction, but like... why? a -PNA caused by a flat Aleutian ridge is the last thing I would expect. even the warm super Ninos had this timeframe warm because of looks like this. absolutely maddening I mean I can think of one reason the atmosphere may be behaving differently than past times… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: I mean I can think of one reason the atmosphere may be behaving differently than past times… lol that's a cop out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah, i get the mechanisms like the jet retraction, but like... why? a -PNA caused by a flat Aleutian ridge is the last thing I would expect. even the warm super Ninos had this timeframe warm because of looks like this. absolutely maddening MJO influences the Pac jet. Pretty sure forcing in phases 2-3-4 is associated with retraction. Ofc there are other mechanisms at play. Most of this is above my pay grade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: lol that's a cop out I’m not sure if blaming the fact our climate has completely gotten fucked up is that much of a cop out? I mean I’m not able to tell you why but I think it’s a reasonable start to investigate what went wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: I’m not sure if blaming the fact our climate has completely gotten fucked up is that much of a cop out? I mean I’m not able to tell you why but I think it’s a reasonable start to investigate what went wrong if this was a common occurrence, you might be able to say that, but a sample size of one isn't that convincing. the reason i called it a cop out is because you can blame basically anything on climate change in some way. it happens all the time, snow or not. people did that in 2013-15 when the West was in a huge drought, calling it the "new normal." how silly that looks now i'm sure it has something to do with it, but it could also be annoying sub-seasonal variability as well. just not enough data. they're definitely going to do some research on this winter, that's for sure 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: MJO influences the Pac jet. Pretty sure forcing in phases 2-3-4 is associated with retraction. Ofc there are other mechanisms at play. Most of this is above my pay grade. yes, but there's subsidence over the MC and the eastern IO with the MJO either null or in Phases 7, 8, or 1 (probably null). the lack of a potent MJO still shouldn't lead to a massive retraction. it's so odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 hell, even the favorable look this January looked like a great La Nina pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: yes, but there's subsidence over the MC and the eastern IO with the MJO either null or in Phases 7, 8, or 1 (probably null). the lack of a potent MJO still shouldn't lead to a massive retraction. it's so odd Yeah activity is largely suppressed. Guidance is forecasting it to emerge in phase 4 in the LR and extrapolating, enhanced convection. There are other mechanisms that have significant influence on the NPAC jet. What's the current/forecasted state of EAMT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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