Jebman Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: And may I suggest for those that NEED a snow fix...start chasing. My ski hobby helps a lot. For the last few weeks I have been way less worried about the day to day ups and downs of our snow chances here partly because I have been focused on what might happen up in northern New England. Same earlier in the season when I was focused on out west and not worried about the fact our pattern here was going to shit. You don't have to ski... set aside time for one or two trips to a snowy area each year and focus on that instead of it snowing here. Just a suggestion, it helps me, but everyone is different. Palisades Tahoe just got demolished by 8 plus feet of snow! Mammoth got over 3 feet. Both are good ski destinations. Try Alta, Utah too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 6 hours ago, psuhoffman said: And may I suggest for those that NEED a snow fix...start chasing. My ski hobby helps a lot. For the last few weeks I have been way less worried about the day to day ups and downs of our snow chances here partly because I have been focused on what might happen up in northern New England. Same earlier in the season when I was focused on out west and not worried about the fact our pattern here was going to shit. You don't have to ski... set aside time for one or two trips to a snowy area each year and focus on that instead of it snowing here. Just a suggestion, it helps me, but everyone is different. How much does a ski trip out west cost? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: How much does a ski trip out west cost? Depends on how early you book. I did trips to Breckenridge/Keystone/A-Basin 5 years in a row ending in 2020, if I booked my flights with Southwest in like September/early October for Jan/Feb I could usually get a round trip for about $300, sometimes even less. Paid only $160 one year! Lodging and your lift ticket/pass end up being the majority of the cost. Plan on ~$1000-1500 combined for those for a 5ish day ski trip with maybe one break day. Again the earlier you book the better And then food/drink. Add in ~$50/day for rentals if needed. I always flew SW so I could bring my gear for free. So probably ~$2k all-in these days. I did it for about $1500 total usually, but the last time I went out there was end of Feb 2020. Amazing how the world has changed since then! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: How much does a ski trip out west cost? Like TSG said it depends on lots of factors... I know a lot of hacks that help keep the cost down. I have southwest account and charge everything I do then use points so I usually fly "free". Otherwise a regular flight from Baltimore to Denver is going to cost you about 300-600 depending on when you book and what airline you use. If you want to stay right at the mountains it can get very pricy, but there are cheaper options. For Winter Park for instance you can save a lot if you stay 30 mins away in the town of Granby instead of at Winter Park. Then you can find a decent place for 100 a night v the 250+ you're going to spend to stay closer to the mountain. If you ever have a specific place in mind I could give you a better idea what the options are and what the likely cost would be. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Like TSG said it depends on lots of factors... I know a lot of hacks that help keep the cost down. I have southwest account and charge everything I do then use points so I usually fly "free". Otherwise a regular flight from Baltimore to Denver is going to cost you about 300-600 depending on when you book and what airline you use. If you want to stay right at the mountains it can get very pricy, but there are cheaper options. For Winter Park for instance you can save a lot if you stay 30 mins away in the town of Granby instead of at Winter Park. Then you can find a decent place for 100 a night v the 250+ you're going to spend to stay closer to the mountain. If you ever have a specific place in mind I could give you a better idea what the options are and what the likely cost would be. I occasionally stay at the YMCA of the Rockies in Granby when XC skiing at Devil's Thumb, Breckenridge, Frisco, or Snow Mountain Ranch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncletim Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 9 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: How much does a ski trip out west cost? (Getting off-topic here, mods please move this to banter if appropriate…) Here’s the the operative question: do you ski at all - and by “ski” in this case, I mean downhill as opposed to x-country? Have you ever been skiing? If you haven’t, and I get the feeling that’s the case, then I think many members of this forum, including me, would be happy to give advice on the best approach to getting started. Skiers tend to be evangelists for the sport, and the thing we most want to avoid is for first-timers to have a bad first day and get turned off, which can easily happen. Having a fun first day, even if you’re falling all over the place, is the key. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 1 hour ago, uncletim said: (Getting off-topic here, mods please move this to banter if appropriate…) Here’s the the operative question: do you ski at all - and by “ski” in this case, I mean downhill as opposed to x-country? Have you ever been skiing? If you haven’t, and I get the feeling that’s the case, then I think many members of this forum, including me, would be happy to give advice on the best approach to getting started. Skiers tend to be evangelists for the sport, and the thing we most want to avoid is for first-timers to have a bad first day and get turned off, which can easily happen. Having a fun first day, even if you’re falling all over the place, is the key. I went to the top of Whiteface Mountain NY, the first time I went skiing. I almost died in the -12 degree temp and -46 degree windchill, and whiteout conditions. I had a bad time and loved it. Ski patrol and my parents weren't so happy lol. I was probably 13. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 It’s pretty amazing how this winter ended up. As bad as I could imagine this was worse. Take out that one good week in Jan and it has to rank as top 3 worst ever. Maybe not snow depth but overall winter feeling. My house is literally hot today. See you guys in Nov. cheers and god bless! 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 3 hours ago, BristowWx said: It’s pretty amazing how this winter ended up. As bad as I could imagine this was worse. Take out that one good week in Jan and it has to rank as top 3 worst ever. Maybe not snow depth but overall winter feeling. My house is literally hot today. See you guys in Nov. cheers and god bless! Glass half full- we had a period with 2 snow events a few days apart, in the heart of winter. Snow on snow (here at least). There was a deep winter feel for 10 days. With a bit of luck/better wave timing, it could have easily been better. We had nothing like that last winter. Expectations were too high, as usual. We suck way more than not when it comes to snow, regardless of Enso state. As for the seasonal/extended models and the persistently epic h5 looks depicted, lesson learned. Boilerplate warm ENSO. Lets remember that as we transition into a Nina, and we see consistently shitty looks advertised by the same models for next winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 27 minutes ago, CAPE said: Glass half full- we had a period with 2 snow events a few days apart, in the heart of winter. Snow on snow (here at least). There was a deep winter feel for 10 days. With a bit of luck/better wave timing, it could have easily been better. We had nothing like that last winter. Expectations were too high, as usual. We suck way more than not when it comes to snow, regardless of Enso state. As for the seasonal models and the persistently epic h5 looks depicted, lesson learned. Boilerplate warm ENSO. Lets remember that as we transition into a Nina, and we see consistently shitty looks advertised by the same models for next winter. I was hoping for at least climo with a nice areawide 6-10" event. At least we got something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 OK folks, I deleted my post, I was so happy about Winter Park's snow stake I forgot this is the long range thread. Sorry. You can find the post in Discussion Obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 On 3/12/2024 at 9:50 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The Pacific pattern actually changes this weekend, and sometimes when we have cold the day of (warm the day of too), models go more aggressive on the same pattern initialized out down the road. With that being said, it is 70 degrees out the next 2 days, and the PDO still has not changed, so the same model trend that has occurred all Winter has a chance to repeat in the next few days, going not as aggressive with the cold in the LR.. Yup, two warm days, and the LR look for significantly below average/-NAO is gone.. Models initialize current conditions out. For example, if they are saying the LR is going to be severely cold, and first you have two 70+ degrees, you should figure that during those two days the LR models are going to completely lose the cold signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 We may be headed for an above average Spring.. I know that's not saying much, but.. since the AMO went positive/PDO went negative ~1995 here are our top analogs to this composite since Jan 23rd: Positive analogs: 2023, 2020, 2017, 2012, 2000, 1999, 1998 Negative analogs: 2015, 2014, 2007, 2003, 1996, 1995 ^13 years since 1995... Roll-forward to April: April through July: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Repeat of last years canada wildfires? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Repeat of last years canada wildfires? They are still burning I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 On 3/13/2024 at 12:04 PM, uncletim said: (Getting off-topic here, mods please move this to banter if appropriate…) Here’s the the operative question: do you ski at all - and by “ski” in this case, I mean downhill as opposed to x-country? Have you ever been skiing? If you haven’t, and I get the feeling that’s the case, then I think many members of this forum, including me, would be happy to give advice on the best approach to getting started. Skiers tend to be evangelists for the sport, and the thing we most want to avoid is for first-timers to have a bad first day and get turned off, which can easily happen. Having a fun first day, even if you’re falling all over the place, is the key. I have never been skiing...I'm not sure I've ever been in any kind of elevation at all, actually. So I'd be a complete novice! I am not at all athletic, and balance is a bit questionable...but it's something I'd be willing to dip my toe in (although given the prices mentioned here...a trip out west ain't happening any time soon, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 41 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I have never been skiing...I'm not sure I've ever been in any kind of elevation at all, actually. So I'd be a complete novice! I am not at all athletic, and balance is a bit questionable...but it's something I'd be willing to dip my toe in (although given the prices mentioned here...a trip out west ain't happening any time soon, lol) Snowshoeing, dog sledding and snowmobiling are options here through mid-April or longer. Lower cost and Zero experience is needed. US Olympic Cross Country team trains here in the late spring because it's nearly 100% there will be snowpack and trails. Had some pretty amazing winters during my 47 years living in the mid-Atlantic. However.. My 10th winter here in the Oregon high country has been a great choice with amazing winters. Not looking forward to being mostly in VA during retired years but end of the day family is most important… nice snowpack is a close second.;) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 0z euro with a cherry blossom-nuking series of hard freezes late next week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 0z euro with a cherry blossom-nuking series of hard freezes late next week. You can set your clock by that anymore. Late useless cold. Feels like part of the new longer term pattern. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 Looks like a muddy wet spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 Looks like awful weather the rest of the month. Yippee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 14 minutes ago, nj2va said: Looks like awful weather the rest of the month. Yippee. 20 years ago it'd be snow. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 7 hours ago, North Balti Zen said: You can set your clock by that anymore. Late useless cold. Feels like part of the new longer term pattern. This is the part of this new...whatever it is I don't get: Why is it that these late freezes have become more prevalent while the winters have been warmer? Although I think @psuhoffman said the Springs aren't getting cooler by the numbers...but why then are we seeing this more? Like...shouldn't a warmer background mean this doesn't happen as much? Make it make sense, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 24 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: This is the part of this new...whatever it is I don't get: Why is it that these late freezes have become more prevalent while the winters have been warmer? Although I think @psuhoffman said the Springs aren't getting cooler by the numbers...but why then are we seeing this more? Like...shouldn't a warmer background mean this doesn't happen as much? Make it make sense, lol Well one thing is you can have a hard freeze or two and then have 20 degree plus departures and the averages will look like the freezes never happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: This is the part of this new...whatever it is I don't get: Why is it that these late freezes have become more prevalent while the winters have been warmer? Although I think @psuhoffman said the Springs aren't getting cooler by the numbers...but why then are we seeing this more? Like...shouldn't a warmer background mean this doesn't happen as much? Make it make sense, lol Transient cold shots(relatively speaking) in late March into April are pretty common. Freezing temps probably don't occur as often, but it still happens. None of this is as simple as you would like it to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: This is the part of this new...whatever it is I don't get: Why is it that these late freezes have become more prevalent while the winters have been warmer? Although I think @psuhoffman said the Springs aren't getting cooler by the numbers...but why then are we seeing this more? Like...shouldn't a warmer background mean this doesn't happen as much? Make it make sense, lol You are wise to question theory through observation. 50 years ago the accepted last frost date for my region west of the BR was May 10... Today, horticultural experts have moved the last frost date to May 15. In the fall the first frost date usually comes 10 days later than 50 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 3 hours ago, CAPE said: Transient cold shots(relatively speaking) in late March into April are pretty common. Freezing temps probably don't occur as often, but it still happens. None of this is as simple as you would like it to be. Not sure I want it to be simple...but just to make some kind of sense! I'm still not 100% past irony of the whole warmer planet but cooler ENSO thing, but at least when you mention trade wind things makes that make more sense to this layman (wind blowing on water making it cooler=something that makes sense) But to your point about the transient cold shots being common...so you're in the thinking that it's not happening more than it used to, but it just feels that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 55 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Not sure I want it to be simple...but just to make some kind of sense! I'm still not 100% past irony of the whole warmer planet but cooler ENSO thing, but at least when you mention trade wind things makes that make more sense to this layman (wind blowing on water making it cooler=something that makes sense) But to your point about the transient cold shots being common...so you're in the thinking that it's not happening more than it used to, but it just feels that way? No. This isn't arbitrary. You need to read more. Google can be your friend, as long as you don't fall prey to disinformation. Plenty of that available on the subject. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 23 hours ago, snownut said: Snowshoeing, dog sledding and snowmobiling are options here through mid-April or longer. Lower cost and Zero experience is needed. US Olympic Cross Country team trains here in the late spring because it's nearly 100% there will be snowpack and trails. Had some pretty amazing winters during my 47 years living in the mid-Atlantic. However.. My 10th winter here in the Oregon high country has been a great choice with amazing winters. Not looking forward to being mostly in VA during retired years but end of the day family is most important… nice snowpack is a close second.;) Yep. I've given up skiing years ago. However, I still LOVE cold and snow. Snowshoeing, snowmobiling and just general outside hiking are things I like to do now. I managed to get my deeper snow 'fix' being in Park City couple weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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