Weather Will Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 WB EURI AI, is there another period to watch at range? 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Wrong thread wbSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 The NAO is just not sustaining negative lately. Winter 23-24: Dec 2023 +1.94 Jan 2024 +0.21 Feb 2024 +1.09 Since Dec 2013, only 5 Winter months negative (41/46 positive) Dec 2011 2.52 2012 1.17 0.42 1.27 Dec 0.17 2013 0.35 -0.45 -1.61 Dec 0.95 2014 0.29 1.34 0.80 Dec 1.86 2015 1.79 1.32 1.45 Dec 2.24 2016 0.12 1.58 0.73 Dec 0.48 2017 0.48 1.00 0.74 Dec 0.88 2018 1.44 1.58 -0.93 Dec 0.61 2019 0.59 0.29 1.23 Dec 1.20 2020 1.34 1.26 1.01 Dec -0.30 2021 -1.11 0.14 0.73 Dec 0.29 2022 1.08 1.68 0.77 Dec -0.15 2023 1.25 0.92 -1.11 Dec 1.94 2024 0.21 1.09 Never going below -1.11 for the Winter month since Dec 2013. Since Dec 2013, 16 Winter months over +1.11! (16-0) A lot of that has to do with the southern part of the NAO measurement, near the Azores, and spread out over the N. Central Atlantic Ocean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 If we're in the 40s now, then we shouldn't have any problems getting back down into the 30s after next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 Pouring one out for the last 12:45 am Euro run until November. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 1 hour ago, Deck Pic said: Rubbing one out for the last 12:45 am Euro run until November. Fixed. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 8 hours ago, ravensrule said: Fixed. Hahaha! I would have never thought that post by @Deck Pic would be a RR bat signal, but there ya go! But I guess it's like anything else, it's in the eye of the beholder what one sees! There's a Tom Lehrer song called "Smut", and one line goes "When correctly viewed...everything ls lewd!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 We may slice through phase 8, but phase 1 is not impossible with that next pass! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 The modki is finally showing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 12z GFS aleet aleet 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 12z GFS aleet aleet The Ji-WW alliance would prefer you post this in the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 On 3/9/2024 at 12:25 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The NAO is just not sustaining negative lately. Winter 23-24: Dec 2023 +1.94 Jan 2024 +0.21 Feb 2024 +1.09 Since Dec 2013, only 5 Winter months negative (41/46 positive) Dec 2011 2.52 2012 1.17 0.42 1.27 Dec 0.17 2013 0.35 -0.45 -1.61 Dec 0.95 2014 0.29 1.34 0.80 Dec 1.86 2015 1.79 1.32 1.45 Dec 2.24 2016 0.12 1.58 0.73 Dec 0.48 2017 0.48 1.00 0.74 Dec 0.88 2018 1.44 1.58 -0.93 Dec 0.61 2019 0.59 0.29 1.23 Dec 1.20 2020 1.34 1.26 1.01 Dec -0.30 2021 -1.11 0.14 0.73 Dec 0.29 2022 1.08 1.68 0.77 Dec -0.15 2023 1.25 0.92 -1.11 Dec 1.94 2024 0.21 1.09 Never going below -1.11 for the Winter month since Dec 2013. Since Dec 2013, 16 Winter months over +1.11! (16-0) A lot of that has to do with the southern part of the NAO measurement, near the Azores, and spread out over the N. Central Atlantic Ocean. Upon further review, there is something wrong with the CPC's NAO calculation. This is not a strongly positive NAO: Looking back over past Winter's, there were a few -NAO's in there too, that were deemed to be positive. The NAO is calculated by sea-level pressure differences between Iceland and the Azores. High up top, Low at the bottom, is -NAO. Low at the top, High pressure bottom is +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: 12z GFS aleet aleet Cold rain for the peak of the cherry blossoms - fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 No comments on the 18z GFS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: No comments on the 18z GFS? It looks great to me! #springhunting 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Just realized there is already a "storm" thread for this. Last hurrah I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 8 hours ago, clskinsfan said: No comments on the 18z GFS? Hug it tight! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 10 hours ago, clskinsfan said: No comments on the 18z GFS? I love getting missed to the south in late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12 Author Share Posted March 12 What? No more snowstorm? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 33 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What? No more snowstorm? Lol We probably have a better chance at hitting 90 in that period then getting a snowstorm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We all really need to move. Only time the grass is dormant/ I can't put (cool season) tall fescue grass seed down and expect it to germinate is early Dec through late Jan- not necessarily because of temps or lack of precip, but because the sun angle is low/days are too short. Probably would grow if that period torched with a persistent SE ridge. Coming soon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 1 hour ago, CAPE said: We all really need to move. Only time the grass is dormant/ I can't put (cool season) tall fescue grass seed down and expect it to germinate is early Dec through late Jan- not necessarily because of temps or lack of precip, but because the sun angle is low/days are too short. Probably would grow if that period torched with a persistent SE ridge. Coming soon.. Yea... but since I'm not going to uproot my kids and take them away from their mom and walk out on a really good job 12 years from earning my pension...just because I love snow...that isn't happening anytime soon. I will probably move to south central Vermont when I retire and the kids are both out of the house. Until then... I just have to accept what it is. The kids love snow but they aren't picky...as long as we get a couple good snows a year (and they define good as like 3") they are happy and we still get that most winters at least. I have been frustrated the last few years by a couple (mostly stupid) factors...one being I had not come to acceptance with the reality yet. I was still stubbornly holding out hope that MOST of our troubles were just bad luck or cyclical and that things would bounce back. I still think things might bounce back some, eventually the PDO will improve...but truth is things are not what they once were and I need to just come to Jesus about that. The other was my stupid tendency to argue with the people that want to be "less than objectively scientific" about this. I need to let that go. At this point I just hope the trends slow down...I hope that once the PDO flips it stabilizes things. Because if things keep warming in the eastern US at the same rate it has been the last 30 years...truth is there won't be much of any winter at all soon...we "joke" about us being SC but truth is we are only 10-20 years away from that actually being true if the current warning rate continues. I am NOT saying it is going to, I think we are in a spike due to the 2016 Nino and the PDO cycle in tandem...but just saying...if things don't level off soon in that regard there really wont be any true winter or hope of much snow at all anymore very soon. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 And may I suggest for those that NEED a snow fix...start chasing. My ski hobby helps a lot. For the last few weeks I have been way less worried about the day to day ups and downs of our snow chances here partly because I have been focused on what might happen up in northern New England. Same earlier in the season when I was focused on out west and not worried about the fact our pattern here was going to shit. You don't have to ski... set aside time for one or two trips to a snowy area each year and focus on that instead of it snowing here. Just a suggestion, it helps me, but everyone is different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Damn 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 It’s kinda hilarious we get missed to the north and south AT THE SAME TIME! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 It’s kinda hilarious we get missed to the north and south AT THE SAME TIME! You sound like Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Just now, anotherman said: You sound like Ji. He isn’t always wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Pretty awesome pattern for below average here: https://ibb.co/bsDzrQg Too bad this didn't occur in the Winter time.. The Pacific pattern actually changes this weekend, and sometimes when we have cold the day of (warm the day of too), models go more aggressive on the same pattern initialized out down the road. I think we can hold out some hope for some snow flakes in northern MD by the end of March.. With that being said, it is 70 degrees out the next 2 days, and the PDO still has not changed, so the same model trend that has occurred all Winter has a chance to repeat in the next few days, going not as aggressive with the cold in the LR.. If it holds though, that's a really nice look at least for some below average conditions in the NE for the last few days of March and into early April.. We do have a strong 10mb warming going on now, so that at least supports what the model shows (average time lag at this time of the year is +10-15 days).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Damn Poor Jay Peak. They could use 61 inches of fresh snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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