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Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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  On 3/5/2024 at 8:32 PM, Yeoman said:

10-15 days out at least 12 times a week.. so no different from the fantasy map he posted, which of course will change completely within 24 hours.

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i dont think this one is changing. In fact, the signal is getting better as we get closer. Kind of the opposite of February

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  On 3/5/2024 at 8:36 PM, Ji said:

i dont think this one is changing. In fact, the signal is getting better as we get closer. Kind of the opposite of February

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Nah, he's right.  The signal was getting better and better as we were closing in and then the bottom just fell out.   So yeah, he's right...second verse, same as the first.

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As I said many days ago, I am done chasing modeled epic h5 patterns at this juncture. If there is a legit signal for a snow event for the lowlands inside 7 days, I will show some interest. Unlikely, but not impossible. Btw, 'lowlands' includes you too Ji. 350 feet? lol

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  On 3/5/2024 at 8:32 PM, Ji said:

March 58 bro

ec-aifs_mslp_pcpn_us_54.png

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Here is the problem….even if todays great looks are correct the pattern is setting it a week too late.  That wave around the 19-20 has no cold in front to work with. So it’s very unlikely to be a big snow at lower elevations. The boundary is a mess.  It would take an incredibly anomalous event. Possible not likely. After that it gets colder but history suggests that’s too late. March 20 is really the limit.  There have been a handful of significant snows as late as around March 20. But after only one in the last 100 years and it was a crazy weird inverted trough event.  Pure statistical probabilities says after March 20 the odds of a significant snowstorm near DC is too low to worry about until it’s right on top of us. 

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  On 3/5/2024 at 10:29 PM, Ji said:


I’d rather live where you live vs nyc for snow anytime

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This is true every time except after March 20.  Once you get really late in the year there is a limit to how far south the true arctic boundary typically sets up. And the elevation dependent marginal events south of that boundary tend to become above 2k to 3k once you get that late.  It’s too late for a pure stj wave to work anymore.  And there is a history of some NS waves bombing and clipping NYC north late in the season but I’m too far southwest for those. 

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  On 3/5/2024 at 9:32 PM, CAPE said:

As I said many days ago, I am done chasing modeled epic h5 patterns at this juncture. If there is a legit signal for a snow event for the lowlands inside 7 days, I will show some interest. Unlikely, but not impossible. Btw, 'lowlands' includes you too Ji. 350 feet? lol

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lol i have more elevation than Ji and I live in the city

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  On 3/6/2024 at 3:55 PM, Terpeast said:

We may hit 70 next week

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Bring it on. Ji and WW are chasing a mirage. I admire the tenacity but simple logic say that pattern changes take a while. It’s gonna put us into late March. Battling that dreaded sun angle. We’re done, but i ain’t mad at them.  

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  On 3/6/2024 at 4:13 PM, stormtracker said:

Bring it on. Ji and WW are chasing a mirage. I admire the tenacity but simple logic say that pattern changes take a while. It’s gonna put us into late March. Battling that dreaded sun angle. We’re done, but i ain’t mad at them.  

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im only looking at the March 18-21 window....after that---the pattern change to cold looks-----no so cold anymore lol

ec-aifs_T850a_us_61.png

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