NorthArlington101 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 Extended range models show a rug late March. I think I'll go stand on it, seems stable What else is there to do? Wait til our two severe days of the year? Track wildfire smoke? Wait for 25mph wind and light rain from a tropical storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 57 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Extended range models show a rug late March. I think I'll go stand on it, seems stable EPS has zero snow through mid month. Whips out the weeklies. Hey look, an inch by the beginning of April! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 6 hours ago, psuhoffman said: The pattern is changing... but I see some of the same flaws in the "better" pattern that has plagued us for years now even when we get a better longwave configuration. Add in the fact we are talking about late March and we're at the edge of when snow is even reasonably possible and that was before the current torch we've been stuck in for 9 years...I dunno man I am not saying the chances are 0. I realize crazy shit happens. Yes the pattern looks better. But by far the most likely outcome even if we do get a perfect track wave is just another perfect track rainstorm. Snowshoe probably gets a big snowstorm late March or early April. This probably saves the spring ski season for New England...but I am skeptical this does much for us locally. My week ago prediction was colder and wet from March 15 - April 15. This fits in. Regarding early April snowfall? April 7, 1971, 8 inches in downtown Waynesboro with 17 inches at 1800 ft. on Afton Mt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 4 hours ago, MDstorm said: Reading this thread over the last few weeks, I have come to the following conclusions: I looked at that second pic too quickly and got triggered. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 I'm looking forward to a warmer day after today's chill at 43 with a 10 - 15 mph southeast breeze. 7 degrees colder than normal. March 1 1962 was 71 degrees............................................. 5 days later, Staunton received 30 inches of SNOW.......................... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 52 minutes ago, stormtracker said: And don't turn 'em back on until uh...the PDO flips? (although I know some will be back next year no matter how horrid it may be, lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: D winter. Would of been a C if a nina but bigger expectations with a nino.. My average is high 20's here. Probably another 10 in ninos. Ended up with 18" pretty crappy for a Nino in Northern Md Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 59 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: And don't turn 'em back on until uh...the PDO flips? (although I know some will be back next year no matter how horrid it may be, lol) You know darn well everyone will be back next winter. We like unusual pain and punishment lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 “Next year is going to suck! I won’t be here tracking”Yes you will. So will I. We all secretly love the torture. Breaking news: snow hunting in the mid Atlantic becomes newest category of BDSM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 I wish we all had the same passion for severe storms as we do for snow. Since King Dumbo (I mean Babar) reigns supreme now in these parts, might as well embrace it all. Snow is not normal anymore, but vicious summer storms certainly are. Not sure how I’ll Jebwalk in them, but I’ll figure that shit out over time. Just need a few more Friday beers in me… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 48 minutes ago, jayyy said: “Next year is going to suck! I won’t be here tracking” Yes you will. So will I. We all secretly love the torture. Breaking news: snow hunting in the mid Atlantic becomes newest category of BDSM. Next year is going to suck says the same people that thought this year would be above average for snowfall. They have no fng clue how it’s going to play out. And we’ll be right back here tracking. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 8 minutes ago, snowfan said: Next year is going to suck says the same people that thought this year would be above average for snowfall. They have no fng clue how it’s going to play out. And we’ll be right back here tracking. We learned our lesson. Every winter is gonna suck. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 9 minutes ago, snowfan said: Next year is going to suck says the same people that thought this year would be above average for snowfall. They have no fng clue how it’s going to play out. And we’ll be right back here tracking. But at least we’ll have 7 threads where everyone can say the same thing about lack of snow. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 2 minutes ago, snowfan said: Next year is going to suck says the same people that thought this year would be above average for snowfall. They have no fng clue how it’s going to play out. And we’ll be right back here tracking. No actual idea, but I bet I see more snow in my yard next winter than this one. Just going with recency, Ninos have been fairly lame, while Ninas have overall been better than expected here wrt cold and snow. It just doesn't get cold enough during Ninos since 2010, and/or atmospheric coupling doesn't really happen and it behaves like a shitty Nina or worse(neutral). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 The biggest irony of this season is we got our best wintry week not from a nino STJ pattern, but more of a nina-like Alaska ridge pattern (-EPO) combined with a short-lived greenland block (-NAO). If we’re going to play the “everyone zigs, we zag” game, we better hope that two things happen at the same time during next year’s nina - 1) pac ridge nudges poleward into alaska AND 2) we get greenland blocking to hold any cold air down But my wag is that we don’t get any blocking, and we get 2022-23 without the cold xmas week. I’d pay money to be wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 58 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We learned our lesson. Every winter is gonna suck. So...you gonna track next year? (Real question) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 2 hours ago, Chris78 said: You know darn well everyone will be back next winter. We like unusual pain and punishment lol 2 hours ago, jayyy said: “Next year is going to suck! I won’t be here tracking” Yes you will. So will I. We all secretly love the torture. Breaking news: snow hunting in the mid Atlantic becomes newest category of BDSM. This will be the first winter where I actually feel done. Maybe as we get closer I'll change my mind, but I feel done. I mean for me, over the last 9 years we've already seen everything. What else is there to see? The only thing that made this winter worth tracking was that we did not know what a legit niño would look like under whatever regime this is. Optimism was warranted because, well...we literally did not know what things would look like. It just didn't work out! But now? Feel like we've seen absolutely everything, and until we get a positive surprise, it just feels like it's not worth watching--especially in a nina (except for @CAPE's yard of course ) I'm tired of pattern chasing only for it to result in long (but knowledgeable) posts about how stuff doesn't work anymore, we suck, etc...it's like, why watch when you already know the answer? I'm tired of watching all manner of climate things destructively interfere with our snow climo. Now if/when the PDO flips that would be something we haven't seen during this stretch, so maybe you watch and see if that helps, who knows? It may or may not...but worth watching in case it does. Until then? Eh. I mean if you are in just for the science, I get it--to each their own. But otherwise? Not much to see, imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 45 minutes ago, Terpeast said: The biggest irony of this season is we got our best wintry week not from a nino STJ pattern, but more of a nina-like Alaska ridge pattern (-EPO) combined with a short-lived greenland block (-NAO). If we’re going to play the “everyone zigs, we zag” game, we better hope that two things happen at the same time during next year’s nina - 1) pac ridge nudges poleward into alaska AND 2) we get greenland blocking to hold any cold air down But my wag is that we don’t get any blocking, and we get 2022-23 without the cold xmas week. I’d pay money to be wrong. I will roll with a predominant -EPO pattern, and a well timed transient -NAO /+PNA to improve our chances. Provides a mechanism for legit cold to move southward + a wave to track underneath with cold air in place. Lately Ninos are simply too warm to force the thermal boundary southward enough for a favorable storm track at our latitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 Another cold April upcoming? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 41 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Another cold April upcoming? What does your method say? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 We just can’t know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 When you know you know! You know it is over when you see this! .BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions likely, particularly through Saturday morning. There is a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms along the crest through this evening with snowfall rates of 4 to 6 inches per hour at times. Snow accumulations between 3 and 6 feet for Lake Tahoe communities, with 6 to 10 feet above 7000 feet. Winds gusting to 70 mph in lower elevations and above 115 mph over Sierra ridges with significant drifting of snow. * WHERE...Greater Lake Tahoe Area. * WHEN...Until 10 AM PST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Whiteout conditions with near zero visibility at times due to blowing snow. The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Travel will be treacherous and potentially life-threatening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds are likely. This will lead to whiteout conditions, making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay in your vehicle. Downtown Truckee, CA Live Webcam | HDOnTap.com Take a trip anyone! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: So...you gonna track next year? (Real question) Sure, but only to the same degree that I tracked last year and for the last couple weeks. I’ll take a quick look at the guidance from time to time, but with no expectation of anything good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 @Ji even this isn’t enough to get snow anywhere near us. It’s all in northern New England. You would think we would be worried about suppression in this look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 6z GFS snows on us on the 11th. 0z was close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 1 minute ago, CAPE said: 6z GFS snows on us on the 11th. 0z was close. Any interest in the time around St. Paddy’s Day? I know it’s a long way off, but any chance in the evolution of the pattern the gfs is showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Any interest in the time around St. Paddy’s Day? Pretty far out but the ensembles have low pressure tracking well to our northwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 WB 6Z GEFS.....under 10 days away.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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