JenkinsJinkies Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 6 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I think I said it back in 2016 coming off 3 consecutive AN winters..... 3 out 4 winters here are probably BN, so we were staring at 9 ratters coming down the pipe. Looks like we're getting them all in succession. '25 - 26 is our year. 25-26 will most likely be the 2nd year of a double dip nina. Massive bust based on the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: 20" is above average in my yard. Did that 2 winters ago. Well, 3 more years for you then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: 20" is above average in my yard. Did that 2 winters ago. I have had above average snow 3 of the last 6 winters out here in western Augusta County. The 3 that weren't had really awful totals, but it hasn't been horrible here all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 20 minutes ago, CAPE said: 20" is above average in my yard. Did that 2 winters ago. If next year is the nina some are expecting it to be, you may find me living in a tent in your backyard. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: If next year is the nina some are expecting it to be, you may find me living in a tent in your backyard. All the recent "good" Ninas have been better to my east. Beach chase! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 40 minutes ago, CAPE said: All the recent "good" Ninas have been better to my east. Beach chase! I'm gonna need a 2nd couch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: I literally move a bunch of posts and the conversation just continues anyway Sorry I tried, I moved to the other thread...then came back in here 12 hours later and all there was were more posts about the same thing in here. Funny how some only seem to mind that topic when its being talked about in a way they don't like... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 hour ago, MDScienceTeacher said: I wouldnt give up so fast. The mid atlantic has had several long periods (7-10 years) of significantly below average snow fall. We are probably just going through one of those now. In terms of warming.. I am with @Bob Chill in thinking the net effect is going to be more severe winters storms but who knows. We are just in one of those long droughts. we definitely are, I've said several times this would be a bad period in any era. The 2 closest pattern comps are the 50's and 70s which were both our two previous worst periods before this god awful straight from snow hell one. I am hopeful once the PDO flips positive we will resume a closer to historical normal snowfall regime. I still think we will lose some snow on the margins even in a positive PDO but it won't be nearly as bad. But I think we have warmed too much to overcome the hostile pacific base state in a -PDO making those cycles much worse than they used to be. Which is a big problem since we are talking about a cycle we will be in half the time. But I think we will still get snowy winters in positive PDO years. I don't THINK we've crossed that threshold yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I posted a discussion prior to the epic collapse of how I thought the weeklies were deriving at those epic looks. Then I reposted again after they collapsed. They were based on algorithms programmed into guidance based on analogs from seasons past which matched things as pdo, qdo, enso as well as current data when models/weeklies were ran. With that said, if we had similar conditions to say late Jan 2010 when those weeklies were ran, a heavily weighted analog was used thus showing us something which looked like Feb 2010. Honestly it wasn't surprising things flipped but I played along for a bit with the positive vibes gang because I actually enjoy posting here. Just have to walk on eggshells at times. Dude just post your thoughts, Screw the people who can't handle hearing things they don't like. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: I literally move a bunch of posts and the conversation just continues anyway The feds (admins) are gonna step in if this shit doesn't stop. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Also, give up. Save yourselves. Focus on next winter's fail. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 When is the PDO going to flip positive? When was it last positive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Just now, osfan24 said: When is the PDO going to flip positive? When was it last positive? There is some honest debate about how "due" we are. So on the whole the PDO has been more negative than positive since about 1998. If you count that whole period as the -PDO cycle then we are due for a flip. However, within that period there have been several notable extreme positive spikes in the PDO. One in the 2000's, a shorter one around 2010, and from 2013-2018. And if you think back to 2017 and 2018 those were just typical nina fails. It was very cold at times both winters. We got a lot of threats but they failed in typical too much NS not enough STJ ways. There was nothing alarming to any of us from those 2 years. It was really 2019 after the PDO flip that I started to notice alarming trends. This is where it becomes complicated. The PDO has become less predictable and regular in its cycles lately. I've also seen some theorizing that its becoming more -PDO dominant. Please don't shoot the messenger on that, I've done absolutely no research on that all I am doing is passing it along, I have no thoughts on whether its true. But I've seen speculation that some variation of those shorter +PDO periods, either 2003-2018 or just 2010-2018, actually were a +PDO cycle because +PDO's will be shorter and less table and -PDO's longer by comparison, and in that case we are maybe just starting the -PDO. I think the majority position is that the larger 1998-2024 period was a -PDO dominant period with just some weird variations within...and that we are due for a flip. I honestly have no idea which is correct, I just want it to flip damnit. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Well, the good news is that the pacific ocean is getting smaller by 1-inch every year. Eventually, it won't matter what PDO cycle we're in! No more PAC puke! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 7 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Well, the good news is that the pacific ocean is getting smaller by 1-inch every year. Eventually, it won't matter what PDO cycle we're in! No more PAC puke! You'll be even dryer though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: You'll be even dryer though Rats!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 51 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Embrace it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: All the professional Mets will agree that's a classic Sistene Chapel look. Spray all your snow shovels with Pam to get ready for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 @Ji the better pattern is progressing forward in time... the heat flux from the canada and scandanavian ridges are working in tandem to create the -NAO. The timing does match with the SSW. The issue is 1 we've been fooled twice now this winter by this kind of progression. 2, even if this time it's right were at the extreme tail end of when it would even matter wrt snowfall. So I understand the lack of interest. I will track till the bitter end. Why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Great discussion above, the PDO seems to really be more a driving factor than it has been before. The “base state” comments really have merit given the Pacific just spoiling our chances more than once at a big dog pattern with staying power. I need to do more digging into the QBO to see if that has some pertinence since our longer term telecomms seem to be the bigger factor. Things like the MJO seem to mean a fair bit less than they used to. also on a side note, why so much effort to move posts from thread to thread? This is a free forum and it’s volunteer work to be a mod. I salute the dedication, but seems like there are more important things in life than moving posts from thread to thread. There’s no weather going on currently. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: the heat flux from the canada and scandanavian ridges are working in tandem to create the -NAO. But is it a "reflection event" or an "absorption event"? Because if we have the "wrong" one it's just dookie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 6 minutes ago, cbmclean said: But is it a "reflection event" or an "absorption event"? Because if we have the "wrong" one it's just dookie. The experts cant even seem to agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: @Ji the better pattern is progressing forward in time... the heat flux from the canada and scandanavian ridges are working in tandem to create the -NAO. The timing does match with the SSW. The issue is 1 we've been fooled twice now this winter by this kind of progression. 2, even if this time it's right were at the extreme tail end of when it would even matter wrt snowfall. So I understand the lack of interest. I will track till the bitter end. Why not. I read that there was snow, sleet and lighting yesterday in Carroll County! I was thinking it was what should have been the PSU storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 hour ago, DDweatherman said: Great discussion above, the PDO seems to really be more a driving factor than it has been before. The “base state” comments really have merit given the Pacific just spoiling our chances more than once at a big dog pattern with staying power. I need to do more digging into the QBO to see if that has some pertinence since our longer term telecomms seem to be the bigger factor. Things like the MJO seem to mean a fair bit less than they used to. also on a side note, why so much effort to move posts from thread to thread? This is a free forum and it’s volunteer work to be a mod. I salute the dedication, but seems like there are more important things in life than moving posts from thread to thread. There’s no weather going on currently. Because as in the past, this area of discussion quickly takes over every single active thread. I’ve seen it before across 4 threads simultaneously and it’s exhausting to have that everywhere and not fair to people who don’t want to read it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 I know, I know, it's an anafront and will end up being a put on, a put on! like the Who said. But the system keeps trending more progressive on GEFS (slight step back at 12z) and that's the trend we want for an overrunning anafront whatever event right? The sun shines...and people forget. The snow packs...as the skier tracks. People forget Forget they're hiding Behind an Anafront. An anafront (it's a put on! it's a put on!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 12z GEFS has the Aleutian High pressure going strong at 384hr, Alaska trough too.. no signs of a pattern change in the Pacific. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 12z GEFS has the Aleutian High pressure going strong at 384hr, Alaska trough too.. no signs of a pattern change in the Pacific. we will know soon, the pattern change on the extended guidance is now only about 12-24 hours outside the range of the GEFS and EPS. They still look pretty identical at day 16 but the EPSX and GEFSX within 24 hours after quickly shift the AK trough westward and begin developing a +PNA, this is in conjunction with the merger of the canada and scandinavian ridges into a -NAO. If we don't start to see it show up tomorrow on the ensembles...I think its safe to assume its likely another extended guidance mirage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 really would not be shocking to see a Scandi ridge -NAO pop up around the 10-15th or so. if it produces winter weather is to be seen, but it’s something 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: really would not be shocking to see a Scandi ridge -NAO pop up around the 10-15th or so. if it produces winter weather is to be seen, but it’s something I'm more confident in that part...but without the pacific altering it won't be cold enough, and that part of the equation I am less confident. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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