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Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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@CAPEThe GEFS and op Euro are really going stronger with the Scandi ridging by day 10 or so... Look I am still in the skeptical camp that any of this leads to snow for us...but its worth noting that's all.  If the heat flux from the Canada ridge and the Scandinavian ridges combine to cause a -NAO, that is not an uncommon progression in a strong nino.  It's coming a little late for us here though.  Honestly, my WAG is that we do get blocking from this...but that it comes too late for snow...and just in time to give us a miserable March 20-April 15 or so....by late April it won't matter on a sunny day we will warm up regardless of blocking.  Who cares what its doing on a rainy day, I'm not chillin outside in the rain whether its 65 or 45.  

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Just now, paulythegun said:

*nerd voice*

EXTRAPOLATING....EXTRAPOLATING

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i saw this weird random post a few days. Some guy named raindance had predicted a monster storm on March 1 and then another one on March 9

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPEThe GEFS and op Euro are really going stronger with the Scandi ridging by day 10 or so... Look I am still in the skeptical camp that any of this leads to snow for us...but its worth noting that's all.  If the heat flux from the Canada ridge and the Scandinavian ridges combine to cause a -NAO, that is not an uncommon progression in a strong nino.  It's coming a little late for us here though.  Honestly, my WAG is that we do get blocking from this...but that it comes too late for snow...and just in time to give us a miserable March 20-April 15 or so....by late April it won't matter on a sunny day we will warm up regardless of blocking.  Who cares what its doing on a rainy day, I'm not chillin outside in the rain whether its 65 or 45.  

your main analog 57-58 had a storm on March 18-21. Sounds like timing is going to work out perfectly for that opportunity

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2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Big storm? Sure. But won't be surprised at all if we get 3 inches of rain at 38 degrees, and some of us would be thinking, if it only were 1958.

Sorry not sorry.

Ya not sure March 58 would even be a snowstorm anymore. Not kidding. 

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPEThe GEFS and op Euro are really going stronger with the Scandi ridging by day 10 or so... Look I am still in the skeptical camp that any of this leads to snow for us...but its worth noting that's all.  If the heat flux from the Canada ridge and the Scandinavian ridges combine to cause a -NAO, that is not an uncommon progression in a strong nino.  It's coming a little late for us here though.  Honestly, my WAG is that we do get blocking from this...but that it comes too late for snow...and just in time to give us a miserable March 20-April 15 or so....by late April it won't matter on a sunny day we will warm up regardless of blocking.  Who cares what its doing on a rainy day, I'm not chillin outside in the rain whether its 65 or 45.  

I see it. Skeptical. Regardless I have passed the point of having much interest in pattern chasing. Parts of the region may very well have a shot at something mid month, but I will do the Bob Chill thing and if I see something that looks interesting inside of 7 days, I'll start paying attention. 

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7 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

18z: Moved up a few days (instead of drifting out to sea and then retrograding to merge with a cold front). Very sad. I wanted to see what the panel after 384 showed.

PAIN

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another perfect track rainstorm is the perfect way to end this winter though  

 

 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

another perfect track rainstorm is the perfect way to end this winter though  

 

 

The low track might be good, but look up top. No block/+NAO produces an inverted UL/surface from ideal. Damn near a 1050 mb high exiting stage right off of Atlantic Canada. Not a winning look for snow in our area.

1709640000-8ZZCuJlSojA.png

1709640000-5HONRmbyiIo.png

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I didn’t even look at the run. It was a joke. 
 

But….and I promise this is the last time (at least in this thread) that I’ll say this…but several years ago when I did that case study of every Baltimore 4”+ snowstorm I was shocked how many actually featured a totally shit god awful pattern with reds and blues in all the wrong places with a pile airmass where it was 50 degrees the day before and the only thing that went right was somehow by some means the storm took a perfect track and so we got a 6” wet snow paste bomb storm.
 

Obviously that wasn’t the majority of our storms and it’s not how we want to roll. I’m not saying we root for crap patterns. But it was enough of the storms that if we can’t ever get that kind of thing anymore, where it snows just because of a good track in an awful pattern, then it’s going to hurt us A Fooking Lot!   Way more than some here want to admit!  

Just off the top of my head without even looking at the files…

Our only real snow in 1997 came in a god awful pattern because we got lucky with a wave track. 

Look at this BS…we got a 4-8” snow from THIS BS on a stick pattern.  
IMG_1697.gif.9e805917b71a2f29f91909a1c13cedda.gif

1976 would have been a completely snowless winter if not for a 10” wet snow storm that came in a pattern that had no business snowing in.

There was another year in the early 90s where our only 2 significant snows both came in a pattern that had no business snowing. Yea it was a crap year but most had like 10-15” not NOTHING!  
 

You know what they all have in common. They’re a long ass time ago. It’s not happening anymore.  There were a lot in the 50s, 60s, 70s, then they started to decline and they’ve gone extinct the last 10 years.
 

Lately our bad patterns are so warm that it doesn’t matter what the track is.  And every time I hear the same thing…but this wasn’t perfect. That wasn’t perfect. The high was too this or that. There was too much ridging in front.  Yea no shit I know it can still snow if every fucking thing goes perfect. Yea if we get a 980 low off VA beach with a 1040 high over Montreal and a -3stdv block with a -epo arctic air mass yes we will get a shit ton of snow. But that’s going to happen once a decade. What about the rest of the god damn time?  We had so many bad but not awful winters in the past where if you take away a couple snows that came from pure luck in a shit pattern they are suddenly a 3” snow year instead of 12” or absolutely nothing instead of 10” like 1976!  
 

lastly I know it’s impossible to prove what storms would or wouldn’t have been a snow 30 years ago. Not without tools I don’t have access too. There were perfect track rains in the 50s too when it was just too warm for any track to overcome.  But there were some snows too!  So while I can’t prove anything because of any one storm…when it happens over and over and over and none of them seem to be snow outside the higher elevations anymore…the preponderance of evidence is damning. 

You keep doing this. Now isn't then. Who exactly are you trying to convince?

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You know who. And ya I know they will never be convinced. It will be 2050 and Baltimore won’t have had a warning event for 30 years and they will still be saying “it’s just cyclical, we just can’t know, underwater volcanoes, aaaahhhhh, don’t talk about CC” because either it’s too depressing for them to admit OR their politics won’t allow them. 
 

But in a stubborn SOB!  I couldn’t have lasted 17 years teaching HS in inner city Baltimore if I wasn’t. 

ETA: and I know you aren’t in those categories and my rant wasn’t even at you even though it was a reply to you, it’s that in fairness you give the head in the sand crew ammunition when you say stuff like “well the pattern isn’t actually good for snow”. Yea I know. But we used to and I guess I’m not ready to come to peace with the fact we can’t anymore, get snow in a bad pattern if we get lucky from a perfect wave track. 

I just think certain setups can be losers for snow whether it's now or 30 years ago. As advertised, with zero blocking, that massive high off the Canadian Maritimes and a low tracking up right along the coast, the low/mid level flow is going to be screaming out of the east/southeast. You seem  to want to make every event with a low to our east that doesn't produce snow some sort of a case study to validate the climate is changing, but sometimes it is just basic physics. Outcomes today can still be the same as a few decades ago. Trying too hard here.

1709640000-vRnqOTQ0ox0.png

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17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I just think certain setups can be losers for snow whether it's now or 30 years ago. As advertised, with zero blocking, that massive high off the Canadian Maritimes and a low tracking up right along the coast, the low/mid level flow is going to be screaming out of the east/southeast. You seem  to want to make every event with a low to our east that doesn't produce snow some sort of a case study to validate the climate is changing, but sometimes it is just basic physics. Outcomes today can still be the same as a few decades ago. Trying too hard here.

1709640000-vRnqOTQ0ox0.png

But it’s not even snow at 4000 feet in the mountains. If it was a sloppy mix that didn’t amount to much near the cities and a big snow NW…I could buy that. Everyone references 1998. But places NW of 95 actually got decent snow that winter from many of those storms.  It’s a matter of degrees. It’s weird to see so many deep lows track off the coast and be rain just about everywhere as recently. That’s not normal. 
 

Most importantly my case isn’t based on this one storm. Everyone keeps trying to refute me with “this one storm could have been rain before too”. Yes. But my case is a preponderance of evidence. It’s been too many if these in a row. 

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Meanwhile where is all the topical long range analysts in here that it was soooo important we stop my post about the gfs rainstorm being affected by warming?  Funny. We just had to stop that. Because it wasn’t topical.  It was derailing the discussion.  And then Fing crickets.  You guys are so transparent. 

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