Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: He and his fucking Harpsichord using ass can go suffer eternal La Niña and a SER. LOL!!!! OK, c'mon now...I love Beethoven and he's still my favorite composer. Unfortunately, I was unable to find an image or a gif with him doing an eyeroll!! So I settled for the Austrian dude...but don't diss his music TOO much! (ETA: I await a lecture from @Maestrobjwa on the merits of Beethoven vs. Mozart and his harpsichord using ass!) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 This winter has made me bitter. Time to bring back tear Beethoven avatar. 6 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, stormtracker said: This winter has made me bitter. Time to bring back tear Beethoven avatar. Yeah, I think after the epic-looking pattern disappeared about a week ago, we definitely needed the Beethoven with the tear! That pretty well crushed everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 This winter has made me bitter. Time to bring back tear Beethoven avatar. I’m sure next winter will be amazing 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 50 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Persistent DMV snow hole persists through March on latest WB EPS control run, mean not any better. Guess the good news is there is heavier snow not too far north, south, east, and west!!!! Mother Nature always balances. Syracuse has only had 31% of climo, DC has had 84%, I have had 29%. I am happy, that is 28.6 % more than last year. Rejoice and be happy with your blessings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: This winter has made me bitter. Time to bring back tear Beethoven avatar. I used to be bitter, or so I was told lol. I forget how that started. Speaking of bitter(s), just made an old fashioned, with quite a bite. Delicious. In other news, HH GFS has a completely new look for March 1st. Not surprising. Now we torch lol. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: I used to be bitter, or so I was told lol. I forget how that started. Speaking of bitter(s), just made an old fashioned, with quite a bite. Delicious. In other news, HH GFS has a completely new look for March 1st. Not surprising. Now we torch lol. Please God, bring the torch on. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 hours ago, psuhoffman said: FWIW the blocking on long range guidance evolve form heat fluxes initially assoxiated with Scandinavian ridging. This is a more common and stable way to get blocking than the wave breaking attempt earlier this month. I am well aware of the climo limitations we will face in late March. Not sure about this. Looking at the depiction at the end of the ens runs, and continuing forward with the extended products, it looks like the same progression we had previously that led to nothing more than a rather weak, transient -NAO. There were hints of a retrograding Scandi ridge then too, but it was a unicorn. Just going with persistence, I don't think a legit(stable) NA block is in the cards this winter, not that it would make much difference in mid to late March anyway. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Not sure about this. Looking at the depiction at the end of the ens runs, and continuing forward with the extended products, it looks like the same progression we had previously that led to nothing more than a rather weak, transient -NAO. There were hints of a retrograding Scandi ridge then too, but it was a unicorn. Just going with persistence, I don't think a legit(stable) NA block is in the cards this winter, not that it would make much difference in mid to late March anyway.Now you become pessimistic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 57 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not sure about this. Looking at the depiction at the end of the ens runs, and continuing forward with the extended products, it looks like the same progression we had previously that led to nothing more than a rather weak, transient -NAO. There were hints of a retrograding Scandi ridge then too, but it was a unicorn. Just going with persistence, I don't think a legit(stable) NA block is in the cards this winter, not that it would make much difference in mid to late March anyway. The eps had like 3 runs over 5 days where it did advertise a Scandi ridge progression. Gfsx never really did. This time both have it. It’s not the strongest signal ever but I see it. I don’t see as much wave breaking. Last time guidance developed multiple strong Atlantic lows before the block. This time the -nao comes before the Atlantic lows. Im extremely skeptical it comes about. Guidance also had the December and January blocking coming about that way and both those times it ended up being more wave breaking and unstable and quickly broke down. That could happen again. Or we could get the block and it’s too warm like last March. Im with you wet skepticism we get a favorable pattern. But I do think the current looks on the eps and gfsx have a slightly better progression than last time. ETA: the eps has already been kicking the can a few days lately. Its very likely its doing the same “-QBO Nino lets snow the typical pattern” crap it did all 2019 and this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 12 minutes ago, Ji said: Now you become pessimistic? You’re right, recent history suggests we should be optimistic 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Not sure about this. Looking at the depiction at the end of the ens runs, and continuing forward with the extended products, it looks like the same progression we had previously that led to nothing more than a rather weak, transient -NAO. There were hints of a retrograding Scandi ridge then too, but it was a unicorn. Just going with persistence, I don't think a legit(stable) NA block is in the cards this winter, not that it would make much difference in mid to late March anyway. That sucks...I only need one more mild/moderate event to move up in the snowfall forecast competition. Edit: I just need one more 4-6" region-wide event. I'm now back to tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, 87storms said: That sucks...I only need one more mild/moderate event to move up in the snowfall forecast competition. That certainly could happen. We don't need a sustained block in March to get some snow. Timing as usual, and some wild shit can happen with flawed patterns and shorter wavelengths. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, CAPE said: That certainly could happen. We don't need a sustained block in March to get some snow. Timing as usual, and some wild shit can happen with flawed patterns and shorter wavelengths. I'm all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 59 minutes ago, Ji said: Now you become pessimistic? Try not to be dumb. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 hours ago, CAPE said: I used to be bitter, or so I was told lol. I forget how that started. Speaking of bitter(s), just made an old fashioned, with quite a bite. Delicious. In other news, HH GFS has a completely new look for March 1st. Not surprising. Now we torch lol. Bring it. I want 90s by early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 hours ago, Ji said: I’m sure next winter will be amazing For sure. With the number of 60-70 degree days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 hours ago, stormtracker said: This winter has made me bitter. Time to bring back tear Beethoven avatar. I forgot about that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 For sure. With the number of 60-70 degree days.We will finish +11 with 2 blizzards. One before Christmas and one early March 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 58 minutes ago, Terpeast said: For sure. With the number of 60-70 degree days. maybe we'll score the 80F in December (the one month we're missing) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 We will finish +11 with 2 blizzards. One before Christmas and one early March that would be an A+ winter If it’s not gonna snow might as well be short sleeve weather 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: The eps had like 3 runs over 5 days where it did advertise a Scandi ridge progression. Gfsx never really did. This time both have it. It’s not the strongest signal ever but I see it. I don’t see as much wave breaking. Last time guidance developed multiple strong Atlantic lows before the block. This time the -nao comes before the Atlantic lows. Im extremely skeptical it comes about. Guidance also had the December and January blocking coming about that way and both those times it ended up being more wave breaking and unstable and quickly broke down. That could happen again. Or we could get the block and it’s too warm like last March. Im with you wet skepticism we get a favorable pattern. But I do think the current looks on the eps and gfsx have a slightly better progression than last time. ETA: the eps has already been kicking the can a few days lately. Its very likely its doing the same “-QBO Nino lets snow the typical pattern” crap it did all 2019 and this year. Could end up better, but a typical sustained NA blocking pattern that develops via a retrograding Scandi ridge I don't think would feature a south central Canada ridge immediately leading in(there should be lower h5 heights there). We have seen this same look previously this winter and the models were dead wrong on the depicted outcome, as it instead ended up a transient/weak -NAO and not a true block. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 The obvious classic example of a developing sustained NA block. Holy shit this progression was epic. We all know how it ended up. Will we ever see it again? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: LOL!!!! OK, c'mon now...I love Beethoven and he's still my favorite composer. Unfortunately, I was unable to find an image or a gif with him doing an eyeroll!! So I settled for the Austrian dude...but don't diss his music TOO much! (ETA: I await a lecture from @Maestrobjwa on the merits of Beethoven vs. Mozart and his harpsichord using ass!) Dang this winter got @stormtrackerpicking classical fights, lol Now first of all, while Beethoven will always be my #1 dude, Mozart slander of that magnitude shalt not be tolerated And I must point out...Mozart did technically play a fortepiano and not a harpsichord (unless the harpsi was when he was like 5)...so I dismiss your diss good sir! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Could end up better, but a typical sustained NA blocking pattern that develops via a retrograding Scandi ridge I don't think would feature a south central Canada ridge immediately leading in(there should be lower h5 heights there). We have seen this same look previously this winter and the models were dead wrong on the depicted outcome, as it instead ended up a transient/weak -NAO and not a true block. I can think of one example where a Canada ridge was undercut and lifted to link with a retrograding ridge from Scandi. You’re right Dec 2009 is the more common progression except in a strong Nino. Several other of our strong Nino blocks came about from a lifting Canada ridge linking with a retro scandi ridge. The bigger issue is I agree with you that the guidance is probably being fooled again. Through day 10-15 it’s relying on pattern progression but as it gets further out it’s increasingly saying “I see a -QBO, weak ass SPV, strong Nino, let’s go canonical pattern look for those drivers”. But as we’ve seen time and again other factors the guidance isn’t properly weighting is running interference. Odds are the same thing is happening again. The only reason I give it any chance is the current SPV collapse in progress. I think there was even a wind reversal already with some guidance suggesting a second in a few days! The timing of which would correlate with a block in mid March. But we’ve seen that fail too this winter so… Honesrly I’m humbled (and currently trashed) at this point. I really thought the Nina pac base state would mute the super Nino some and result in a canonical moderate Nino pattern. Instead what we actually got was the fucking worst traits of a Nina and Nino. At this point I’ve called uncle and have no expectations but march is crazy and the SPV just collapsed so im leaving a crack open for something to surprise me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 As usual another shite last week of FebruarySent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I find it suspicious that any time the temp guidance says warm it always happens and we get torched. but when it says cold for the up coming week or 2 its right maybe 3 times out of 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 16 minutes ago, Ji said: As usual another shite last week of February Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk We had a good run…I guess. Praying that before next winter the largest black hole ever discovered (7 light years wide - please go ahead and look it up—it’s legit—ask Australia) just swallows us whole and spits us out on the other side into a new base state. Let’s just go ahead and for fun….let’s call it…base state…Dumbo? Babar is an idiot and can go fuck himself. I will now go see myself out and into a deep hibernation until awoken by the first storm thread of the new black hole millennium. So many jokes in there, so little time. And yeah. I swear. It was just beers—and a few meads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 31 minutes ago, Scraff said: We had a good run…I guess. Praying that before next winter the largest black hole ever discovered (7 light years wide - please go ahead and look it up—it’s legit—ask Australia) just swallows us whole and spits us out on the other side into a new base state. Let’s just go ahead and for fun….let’s call it…base state…Dumbo? Babar is an idiot and can go fuck himself. I will now go see myself out and into a deep hibernation until awoken by the first storm thread of the new black hole millennium. So many jokes in there, so little time. And yeah. I swear. It was just beers—and a few meads. Somewhere is an alternative universe where water freezes at 50 degrees 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Somewhere is an alternative universe where water freezes at 50 degrees Wait, even that has gone up? Two weeks ago it was 45. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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