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Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 2/20/2024 at 7:15 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

89-90/96-97/01-02/11-12/12-13 were all relatively bad.  I am not sure a neutral after a Nina would be bad but they do tend to be and often times they suck for a large section of the country...01-02, 11-12, 12-13 were pretty much bad in large sectors of the nation.

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I can’t always prove the why behind the what. I can simply find statistical correlations. In the last 40 years our snowfall in enso neutral following nina years has been the worst category. Worse than Nina’s and other neutrals and obviously ninos.
 

My only theory as to why is a weakened Nina lag. In an actual Nina sometimes the pac ridge can be poleward and in those cases we can get cold and some snow. It’s still northern stream dominant so big mecs+ level storms are rare south of 40* and it’s hard for us to go above avg without any big storms but at least they aren’t awful winters with near median snowfall. 
 

I think in a neutral with a Nina lag we seem to get a weaker flat Nina pac ridge (like what’s coming the next 2 weeks) and that’s the worst often with a trough to its north over AK!  We get a continent flooded with warmth AND an eastern ridge. Shit the blinds pattern for any snow chances south of Montreal. We would be better off with a stronger Nina response and perhaps a poleward ridge at times. 

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we cant get away from cutters!  

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

@SnowGoose69 here is the Jan/Feb composite h5 for all neutrals following a Nina. 
IMG_1688.png.243d61e76856fde15c30b2cb554daeab.png

let me vomit. We’d be way better off with a stronger Nina ridge than that puke there!  Last year we had some discussion that last winter behaved more like a neutral after a Nina and looks a lot more like that comp above than the Nina comp with a stronger pac ridge. The Nina was very weak and fading by winter. 

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Wxdood

Wxdood

Posted
Posted
  On 2/20/2024 at 7:59 PM, psuhoffman said:

@SnowGoose69 here is the Jan/Feb composite h5 for all neutrals following a Nina. 
IMG_1688.png.243d61e76856fde15c30b2cb554daeab.png

let me vomit. We’d be way better off with a stronger Nina ridge than that puke there!  Last year we had some discussion that last winter behaved more like a neutral after a Nina and looks a lot more like that comp above than the Nina comp with a stronger pac ridge. The Nina was very weak and fading by winter. 

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That will definitely suck if it goes down like that...

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Stormchaserchuck1

Stormchaserchuck1

Posted
Posted
  On 2/20/2024 at 7:59 PM, psuhoffman said:

@SnowGoose69 here is the Jan/Feb composite h5 for all neutrals following a Nina. 

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N. Hemisphere looks colder. That's about the only correlation I'm willing to make with 6 examples and one of the important inputs being "neutral". I wonder if Neutral after El Nino the N. Hemisphere looks warmer? 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 2/20/2024 at 8:07 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

N. Hemisphere looks colder. That's about the only correlation I'm willing to make with 6 examples and one of the important inputs being "neutral". I wonder if Neutral after El Nino the N. Hemisphere looks warmer? 

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It looks colder because several of those years are from a colder period.  That’s all imo. The biggest take away between that and the Nina h5 is there tends to be a flatter pac ridge and a more +AO. But that correlates. A poleward ridge can lead to heat fluxes that weaken the TPV and can foster blocking. In a flat pac ridge the faster flat jet actually speeds up the TPV and precludes blocking. 

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Ji

Ji

Posted
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  On 2/20/2024 at 8:12 PM, psuhoffman said:

It looks colder because several of those years are from a colder period.  That’s all imo. The biggest take away between that and the Nina h5 is there tends to be a flatter pac ridge and a more +AO. But that correlates. A poleward ridge can lead to heat fluxes that weaken the TPV and can foster blocking. In a flat pac ridge the faster flat jet actually speeds up the TPV and precludes blocking. 

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well we dont have to worry about a neutral from a nina this winter lol. We will leave that for the disaster winter of 2025-2026.

This is super unscientific but we are just due--maybe next year is a shocker--like this one was

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
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  On 2/20/2024 at 8:21 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Really? It must have updated.. weird because they go back to 1948. Must be cold 80% of the time. 

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I think they updated last year.  Ya you have to adjust for climo changes. This is the mean of we remove years prior to 1990. The only place it’s cold is where we don’t want it to be lol. 
IMG_1689.png.4cf4c36571ff75fa89271ef54fd100ad.png

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Stormchaserchuck1

Stormchaserchuck1

Posted
Posted
  On 2/20/2024 at 8:24 PM, psuhoffman said:

I think they updated last year.  Ya you have to adjust for climo changes. This is the mean of we remove years prior to 1990. The only place it’s cold is where we don’t want it to be lol. 

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I still think that's just La Nina cold.. not enough examples to make conclusions about the AO. After 20-25 examples, I think that would look more neutralized. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 2/20/2024 at 8:29 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I still think that's just La Nina cold.. not enough examples to make conclusions about the AO. After 20-25 examples, I think that would look more neutralized. 

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I get what you’re saying but there hasn’t been a single snowy anomaly out of 6 chances. And the pattern is pretty consistent not like a mean from different variable anomalies. It’s possible we just got unlucky 6 straight times but I doubt it. Also, the pattern fits a logical explanation. I can see the why behind the what even if there isn’t enough data to prove it with statistical significance yet. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 2/20/2024 at 8:16 PM, Ji said:

well we dont have to worry about a neutral from a nina this winter lol. We will leave that for the disaster winter of 2025-2026.

This is super unscientific but we are just due--maybe next year is a shocker--like this one was

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If the PDO flips by next fall I will entertain that maybe a 1996 anomaly is within the realm of possibility. But that has no chance in this current pacific base state. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 2/20/2024 at 8:16 PM, Ji said:

well we dont have to worry about a neutral from a nina this winter lol. We will leave that for the disaster winter of 2025-2026.

This is super unscientific but we are just due--maybe next year is a shocker--like this one was

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You’re right. Next year we get 2017 followed by 2002. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 2/20/2024 at 10:05 PM, Ji said:


I’m sure 2003 isn’t after that

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I’ve given up on anything much in this -pdo. Yea we will keep getting some snow. Table scraps. But this is it. But can you imagine if this continues after the PDO flips?  We better get a snowy winter quick after the PDO goes positive or it will be real depressing. 

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
  On 2/20/2024 at 10:43 PM, psuhoffman said:
I’ve given up on anything much in this -pdo. Yea we will keep getting some snow. Table scraps. But this is it. But can you imagine if this continues after the PDO flips?  We better get a snowy winter quick after the PDO goes positive or it will be real depressing. 

What physically needs to happen for it to go positive? Like what will flip it?
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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted
  On 2/20/2024 at 6:51 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

12z GEFS has the Aleutian High near +400dm on 2/23, then goes through 4 reloads going out into March.. over +250dm the whole time on the ensemble mean.. it's going to start warming up real quick. After the next few days, expect temps to start busting high. 

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Might as well shoot for another 80+F temp in February.

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Northern Foothills Snowman

Northern Foothills Snowman

Posted
Posted
  On 2/21/2024 at 2:14 AM, Ji said:


Can’t wait to see @stormtracker give us euro pbp at 2:42am lol

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  On 2/21/2024 at 1:47 AM, Ji said:


How is this going to work with crappy mjo phases

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I’m is NC foothills near VA border. 
I have a question about the MJO. 
JFM has 1,2,3&8 as cold phases. 
FMA has the same cold phases. 
MAM has 1,2,3,4&7 as cold. 
so which one do we go by in March?

Thansk. 
 

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