Solution Man Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Today marks the first day since winter started where there are no posts after the 12z runs(except Euro) Hello darkness our old friend Yeah, handwriting on the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Today marks the first day since winter started where there are no posts after the 12z runs(except Euro) Hello darkness our old friend My gut says we’re not done yet. But with the PSU storm looking like a fail, I think we have some time before we get a threat in the medium range. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Today marks the first day since winter started where there are no posts after the 12z runs(except Euro) Hello darkness our old friend 12z GFS snows on us(mostly just south). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 I’m ready for spring, tbh. Just waiting until March 1 to grade my temp and precip outlook. If it snows in march I’ll take it, but if it ends up being 60-70 degrees then all the better. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Early March h5 look has improved some on the last few runs of the GEFS, with a temporary PNA ridge going up and a wave tracking east under a Hudson/Baffin ridge. Might be a chance here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 SSW magic still on the table, will be interesting see if see any changes in the LR with Atlantic blocking. I’m no expert in the Strat that’s for sure but it can’t hurt. 3 week lag time or so takes us to like end of first week of March . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Early March h5 look has improved some on the last few runs of the GEFS, with a temporary PNA ridge going up and a wave tracking east under a Hudson/Baffin ridge. Might be a chance here. Gfs op run at 12z is surprisingly cold at the surface [[moved from other thread so the mods don’t have to]] 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Early March h5 look has improved some on the last few runs of the GEFS, with a temporary PNA ridge going up and a wave tracking east under a Hudson/Baffin ridge. Might be a chance here. I’ve already called dibs on Mar 4-7. I have receipts!! 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 GFS op looks active and cold again in early March after a break in the cold late month. I doubt we’re done tracking. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 hour ago, Heisy said: SSW magic still on the table, will be interesting see if see any changes in the LR with Atlantic blocking. I’m no expert in the Strat that’s for sure but it can’t hurt. 3 week lag time or so takes us to like end of first week of March. Yeah we have a pretty good warming going on now. The lag at this time of the year is 15 days, so that puts us into the first few days of march with -NAO correlation. Some models are showing an aggressive 2nd wave warming ~March 5-25. That one is +10-15 days, so March 15-April 5 -NAO correlation. The problem is the Pacific 500mb pattern.. we need a pattern change there. Subsurface ENSO cold water has changed the PNA to negative, and with lingering -PDO the EPO is positive there.. our chance is that these cycles tend to happen every 40 days (MJO, etc), so after some time the -PNA tendency starts to wane a little. If we can time a Pacific change with favorable NAO in March, but we just have so much tendency toward a bad Pacific/warmth for March right now.. I've posted this earlier, but we have the highest 6-year anomaly for a 2-month period on records, by a good 20%. ^ 3 Neutral/El Nino years happened within that, too. Just a really strong part of the cycle we are in. I would think if the NAO goes negative in March, its long term correlation would hold, and we would have more tendency to have a -pna/+epo pattern too. We'll see! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/16/2024 at 1:21 PM, aldie 22 said: I have my eye on the March 3rd storm Called it early on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 52 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I’m ready for spring, tbh. Just waiting until March 1 to grade my temp and precip outlook. If it snows in march I’ll take it, but if it ends up being 60-70 degrees then all the better. I've got one more storm left in me, but otherwise...yea, I'm ready for Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 8 minutes ago, 87storms said: I've got one more storm left in me, but otherwise...yea, I'm ready for Spring. Agreed. Would love to see one more snowstorm but ready for longer days and warmer weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 40 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’ve already called dibs on Mar 4-7. I have receipts!! This would be prior to that. I got the 28th through the 3rd. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 31 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Called it early on Friday We can flip a coin on that one. In all seriousness, I enjoy trying to locate potential in the LR, but it is high risk/low reward. I don't want a storm named after me. Look what just happened to PSU 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 46 minutes ago, CAPE said: This would be prior to that. I got the 28th through the 3rd. The 12z GEFS looks interesting for this period. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 12z GEFS looks interesting for this period. Doesn’t look cold enough to me, but the Op is colder. Doesn’t rule out something interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 hour ago, CAPE said: We can flip a coin on that one. In all seriousness, I enjoy trying to locate potential in the LR, but it is high risk/low reward. I don't want a storm named after me. Look what just happened to PSU Just curious, what is the risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 54 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 12z GEFS looks interesting for this period. Here we go, pulled back in again… Even a dog learns by repeti… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 WB 12Z EPS is shut the blinds at least the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS is shut the blinds at least the next two weeks. Grass cutting season is coming in hot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 46 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Just curious, what is the risk? Zero. Idiom. You really take everything you read here literally lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 The latest Euro Weeklies look to have a workable pattern beginning by the week of March 7th to the 14th & then continuing through the end of the month. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 8 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Please stop making me move posts between threads... PA just has One thread for everything. Storms. Banter. Short range. Long range. It seems to work. But they don’t have as many posters. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Here’s the 30 day Euro Weeklies pattern from March 4th to April 4th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 PA just has One thread for everything. Storms. Banter. Short range. Long range. It seems to work. But they don’t have as many posters. Their only poster is Ralph wiggum 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Their only poster is Ralph wiggum That's the Philly forum, and it does have a banter thread. I think he is talking about the Upstate NY/PA forum. Either way, that won't work here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Their only poster is Ralph wiggum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: That's the Philly forum, and it does have a banter thread. I think he is talking about the Upstate NY/PA forum. Either way, that won't work here. Yes and I wasn’t implying it would work. They have way less posters and they aren’t as serious. But it is nice when I’m in there not to have to remember which thread to say what in. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 if there is one month that, for whatever reason, has delivered during our snow drought, it's March. I trust March more than December at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now