CAPE Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, paulythegun said: We’re really giving up on this? Unless there are some significant changes with the location and timing of the currently depicted key features, this is a mild storm with cold coming in behind. 50-50 High leading in? Locate the thermal boundary.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 14 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Have you seen the long ranges? I haven’t lol. But there’s still a month for a system to show up in the mid-range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Teleconnections look ok mid March. Lets's see if Mid March still looks good next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 28 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Teleconnections look ok mid March. Lets's see if Mid March still looks good next weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 The latest Euro Weeklies show the chance of one more potential window starting in mid March through the end of the month. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 I suppose I’m keeping one eye on it still. But with the collapse of a phased wave in front of it I see nothing in the long wave pattern that indicates that’s likely to phase far enough south for us. It’s all wrong. Could it change. Sure. But we’re getting kinda close for major hemispheric long wave changes. Could a crazy phase that defies normal logic occur. You bet ya. Once in a while it happens. Globally weird shit happens often. But 99% if it doesn’t affect the tiny little geographic box we give 2 shits about. So there is always a chance. But yes now decreased to the level I don’t anticipate every model run and track expecting anything. Yeah I suppose the operational models demonstrate how even with a perfect pass south, it’s rain. Wish that wave in front of it would cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 The latest Euro Weeklies show the chance of one more potential window starting in mid March through the end of the month. We(a)klies keep pushing nino analogs from 2010/2003. Turns out the ocean wasn’t on fire in 2003/2010. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 29 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The latest Euro Weeklies show the chance of one more potential window starting in mid March through the end of the month. Yes but it’s mid March. It’ll be too warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 42 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Yes but it’s mid March. It’ll be too warm. Mid March is still game on for the mountains. Lowlands are another story, but PSU land can still score as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 6 minutes ago, chris21 said: Mid March is still game on for the mountains. Lowlands is another story, but PSU land can still score as well. Even the closer N/W suburbs (think IAD, MoCo/HoCo, etc) can still score in mid-March. Sometimes even late March but that’s pushing it. I’m not giving up. In 2018 the greatest moment came right after the solstice and I’m still yet to see a storm that big ever since IMBY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 31 minutes ago, chris21 said: Mid March is still game on for the mountains. Lowlands are another story, but PSU land can still score as well. Oh it can happen here. I had around 8 inches on March 20th 2018. The St Patty's day storm in 2014(I think) was another one- temps fell into the low 20s by mid afternoon with 6" of snow on top of ZR/sleet. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 5 hours ago, Fozz said: It sure does. And after Jan 2016, which was like the ultimate W for this hobby (along with Feb 2010), I am not quite as emotionally attached to IMBY snow as I was before. It's still nice to see, but there are also so many mountains where I want to experience big storms and powder days. These -PNA patterns we've been getting are all great opportunities to ski out west while this area gets skunked, and I encourage those who are able to take advantage of it. Palisades and Mammoth are both getting heavy snow right now, and will get several feet thru Tuesday. For example: https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 The problem is that we were fooled big time by the weeklies for this current period. So what makes a month from now different? Skeptical to say the least.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: The problem is that we were fooled big time by the weeklies for this current period. So what makes a month from now different? Skeptical to say the least.... They have been depicting the classic Nino look with an Aleutian low, lower heights across the southern/eastern US, and NA blocking since late November for mid Jan-Feb-March. Maybe they finally get it right now? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: The problem is that we were fooled big time by the weeklies for this current period. So what makes a month from now different? Skeptical to say the least.... Yep. And if I remember correctly we had multi model agreement. Each one better than the last one.. Remember, those ensemble runs? There was a period of time where every day couldn’t be better until the next day.. two days ago I was knocking on 5 inches both ensemble runs, and operational runs at my house. Skeptical is an understatement. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dendrimer77 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 While winter in northern parts of the forum has been decent, it has sucked pretty royally in central VA (I'm in CHO). What is most depressing is the lack of confidence the models and weekly products produced this winter, and how gun-shy it has made all of us. Tough to believe the tools we have until things line up right with correlation. Oh well, there's always beer to drink. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 You guys pining away for snow? Look, I know this belongs in banter, but damn that snow is hammering Mammoth right now! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge Man there is NO reason to be sad! HUGE, HUGE aggregates! Hot damn! Now that's a FOLKS storm right there! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Mid March is still game on for the mountains. Lowlands are another story, but PSU land can still score as well.Yeah those weeklies look good for the mountains but ONLY if you think they’re real. Do we really buy a 3 week blocking period in March after seeing it pop on the weeklies 4 weeks out for a month now? It can certainly happen due to random chance and the tendency for the PV to breakdown in early spring, but the weeklies aren’t worth more than a dart throw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 This winter unlike 2023 and 2020 has given us numerous trackable opportunities that have converted from digital to real snow. As I’ve gotten older tracking itself is enjoyable as a weather buff and have accepted that real snow is just a bonus. We haven’t tracked a single serious snowstorm this winter. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 9 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The latest Euro Weeklies show the chance of one more potential window starting in mid March through the end of the month. Groundhog said hold my beer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 0z EPS indicating some changes in the Pacific with hints of a PNA ridge developing at the end of the run. GEPS is similar. Lets see how persistent this is, and if the GEFS trends that way. Not sure how sustainable it would be with the MJO forecast to emerge near the MC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Still some potential on the ops for a sneaky event in the next ten days. Active northern stream with “cold enough” not that far away. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Please stop making me move posts between threads... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Please stop making me move posts between threads... My bad. I was a bit tipsy last night and kept losing track of which thread I was in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 12 hours ago, CAPE said: Oh it can happen here. I had around 8 inches on March 20th 2018. The St Patty's day storm in 2014(I think) was another one- temps fell into the low 20s by mid afternoon with 6" of snow on top of ZR/sleet. I have no memory of either of those two events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I have no memory of either of those two events. The 2014 was mostly an overnight snow/sleet with dripping all the next day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I have no memory of either of those two events. March 17, 2014 was legit...we had about 6-8" in Bethesda. March 2018 was about half that, but still a decent event...and was also a reminder that you really need rates during the day to keep up with the sun angle. Once the rates lightened up, it was a wrap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 4 hours ago, 87storms said: March 17, 2014 was legit...we had about 6-8" in Bethesda. March 2018 was about half that, but still a decent event...and was also a reminder that you really need rates during the day to keep up with the sun angle. Once the rates lightened up, it was a wrap. I was cross country skiing on a golf course and couldn’t believe it was St.Paddy day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 44 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I have no memory of either of those two events. March 2014 was much bigger south of us, but March 2018 was a big one here.. 8.5” and it was after the equinox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Today marks the first day since winter started where there are no posts after the 12z runs(except Euro) Hello darkness our old friend 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now