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Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


Aren’t we sorta tracking next weekend? It’s a long shot but there is something there.

I mean, maybe the Euro will continue to hang on to the idea.  GFS just won't budge, which I would think it would have done by now.  But then again, the GFS had me getting 4 to 6 inches last night.

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11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z CFS:  if it is right the rest of February is too warm to snow.  First week of March has a window of opportunity and the last 10 days of March look cold.

IMG_3261.png

IMG_3262.png

Oh good, cold just in time for it to be too warm to snow unless you live in PSU land.

Doesn’t really matter to me now anyway. This season has been a disaster and the only thing that can save it is a HECS, which isn’t even worth fretting over or paying any attention to models unless the NAO dips.

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5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Oh good, cold just in time for it to be too warm to snow unless you live in PSU land.

Doesn’t really matter to me now anyway. This season has been a disaster and the only thing that can save it is a HECS, which isn’t even worth fretting over or paying any attention to models unless the NAO dips.

Agreed. I am ready for spring. All they hype for perfect upper air setups which fell apart overnight, along with last nights disappointment, I am all but resigned for any winter weather now, unless a HECS shows up.

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11 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Oh good, cold just in time for it to be too warm to snow unless you live in PSU land.

Doesn’t really matter to me now anyway. This season has been a disaster and the only thing that can save it is a HECS, which isn’t even worth fretting over or paying any attention to models unless the NAO dips.

At this point, a HECS would take it from a D to a C.

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah euro came to its senses.  Looks like all the other models now. 

Sorry I thought I was in the banter thread,  not that there is much topical to discuss here lol. The first shoe on this “threat” dropped when the nao block evaporated. The last nail was when the ocean storm in front of it trended away from a phased and towards a cut off system. We needed that as a phased system to impact the flow to compensate for the lack of blocking. Unless significant major features change this is pretty much dead. Sorry. 

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33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Well in terms of our snowfall you’re totally correct. But we did have 3 juiced up perfect track STJ dominant waves and 1 hybrid where the h5 crossed just south of DC in our “money box”. But they were all too warm and just rain.  In a non Nina we don’t typically get that many stj chances. I think this year ended up a hybrid. Had the juiced up STJ but superimposed onto the Nina pac base state with associated warmer thermals. That neutralized the advantage of a Nino for our snow purposes and left it Nina like wrt snowfall. 

Do you think we are essentially done with snow this winter in the DC metro area?

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12 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

We’re really giving up on this?eb719f7ffe2c77ca1dae4ad366f325da.jpg

Let’s reel it in! Nothing has looked good or bad all winter anyway until 3-4 days out. I mean what else we got? I’m game for wasting 1 more week of my life watching models. Stupid hobby.  :lol:

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38 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Weeklies get us into a favorable look 3/12 onward but they seem to be defaulting to that look a lot so hard to have any hope especially at that date. Who knows


.

map?

 

btw....18z icon looked like it might try to phase the northern energy

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30 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

We’re really giving up on this?eb719f7ffe2c77ca1dae4ad366f325da.jpg

I suppose I’m keeping one eye on it still. But with the collapse of a phased wave in front of it I see nothing in the long wave pattern that indicates that’s likely to phase far enough south for us. It’s all wrong. Could it change. Sure. But we’re getting kinda close for major hemispheric long wave changes. Could a crazy phase that defies normal logic occur. You bet ya. Once in a while it happens. Globally weird shit happens often. But 99% if it doesn’t affect the tiny little geographic box we give 2 shits about. So there is always a chance. But yes now decreased to the level I don’t anticipate every model run and track expecting anything. 

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6 minutes ago, 87storms said:

It’s always interesting to see “winter’s over” comments the same day that it snows.

I’d love to see something to look forward to before the second half of March, but I think people are really sick of the rug pulls.

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