AlexD1990 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Aren’t we sorta tracking next weekend? It’s a long shot but there is something there. I'm keeping an eye on it. Today's storm wasn't even on the radar at a similar time lead Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Aren’t we sorta tracking next weekend? It’s a long shot but there is something there. I mean, maybe the Euro will continue to hang on to the idea. GFS just won't budge, which I would think it would have done by now. But then again, the GFS had me getting 4 to 6 inches last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 I mean, maybe the Euro will continue to hang on to the idea. GFS just won't budge, which I would think it would have done by now. But then again, the GFS had me getting 4 to 6 inches last night.Unfortunately the GFS is worse than the ICON. And probably the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Canadian has the storm over Norfolk but rain to Scranton ☹️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 14 minutes ago, rjvanals said: Canadian has the storm over Norfolk but rain to Scranton ☹️ Yeah, Euro should come around later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 WB 6Z CFS: if it is right the rest of February is too warm to snow. First week of March has a window of opportunity and the last 10 days of March look cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Saw there were like 70 unread posts in here and thought maybe something exciting was going on with next weekend. Uhhhhh, no. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z CFS: if it is right the rest of February is too warm to snow. First week of March has a window of opportunity and the last 10 days of March look cold. Oh good, cold just in time for it to be too warm to snow unless you live in PSU land. Doesn’t really matter to me now anyway. This season has been a disaster and the only thing that can save it is a HECS, which isn’t even worth fretting over or paying any attention to models unless the NAO dips. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Oh good, cold just in time for it to be too warm to snow unless you live in PSU land. Doesn’t really matter to me now anyway. This season has been a disaster and the only thing that can save it is a HECS, which isn’t even worth fretting over or paying any attention to models unless the NAO dips. Agreed. I am ready for spring. All they hype for perfect upper air setups which fell apart overnight, along with last nights disappointment, I am all but resigned for any winter weather now, unless a HECS shows up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 21 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I don't know if that would be enough for snow if we're straddling March and April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 11 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Oh good, cold just in time for it to be too warm to snow unless you live in PSU land. Doesn’t really matter to me now anyway. This season has been a disaster and the only thing that can save it is a HECS, which isn’t even worth fretting over or paying any attention to models unless the NAO dips. At this point, a HECS would take it from a D to a C. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Yeah euro came to its senses. Looks like all the other models now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah euro came to its senses. Looks like all the other models now. Sorry I thought I was in the banter thread, not that there is much topical to discuss here lol. The first shoe on this “threat” dropped when the nao block evaporated. The last nail was when the ocean storm in front of it trended away from a phased and towards a cut off system. We needed that as a phased system to impact the flow to compensate for the lack of blocking. Unless significant major features change this is pretty much dead. Sorry. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 That storm next Friday on the Euro looks like another yawner... perfect track, 40 degree rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 I know it's out there beyond la-la land but did anyone else notice the anafrontal snow the GFS tries to give us around March 2? It has shown up before around that time so this isn't exactly a one-off appearance of this. Not the most likely, yeah, but something, and I don't think we're done for the season yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Weeklies get us into a favorable look 3/12 onward but they seem to be defaulting to that look a lot so hard to have any hope especially at that date. Who knows . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 8 minutes ago, Heisy said: Weeklies get us into a favorable look 3/12 onward but they seem to be defaulting to that look a lot so hard to have any hope especially at that date. Who knows . A cold spring sounds super 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Well in terms of our snowfall you’re totally correct. But we did have 3 juiced up perfect track STJ dominant waves and 1 hybrid where the h5 crossed just south of DC in our “money box”. But they were all too warm and just rain. In a non Nina we don’t typically get that many stj chances. I think this year ended up a hybrid. Had the juiced up STJ but superimposed onto the Nina pac base state with associated warmer thermals. That neutralized the advantage of a Nino for our snow purposes and left it Nina like wrt snowfall. Do you think we are essentially done with snow this winter in the DC metro area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 We’re really giving up on this? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, paulythegun said: We’re really giving up on this? Yes 7 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 12 minutes ago, paulythegun said: We’re really giving up on this? Let’s reel it in! Nothing has looked good or bad all winter anyway until 3-4 days out. I mean what else we got? I’m game for wasting 1 more week of my life watching models. Stupid hobby. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigCountry Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 17 minutes ago, paulythegun said: We’re really giving up on this? Not a matter of us giving up on winter....but more like winter giving up on us....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 38 minutes ago, Heisy said: Weeklies get us into a favorable look 3/12 onward but they seem to be defaulting to that look a lot so hard to have any hope especially at that date. Who knows . map? btw....18z icon looked like it might try to phase the northern energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 24 minutes ago, paulythegun said: We’re really giving up on this? Is that the start of the Sistene Chapel pattern? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 30 minutes ago, paulythegun said: We’re really giving up on this? I suppose I’m keeping one eye on it still. But with the collapse of a phased wave in front of it I see nothing in the long wave pattern that indicates that’s likely to phase far enough south for us. It’s all wrong. Could it change. Sure. But we’re getting kinda close for major hemispheric long wave changes. Could a crazy phase that defies normal logic occur. You bet ya. Once in a while it happens. Globally weird shit happens often. But 99% if it doesn’t affect the tiny little geographic box we give 2 shits about. So there is always a chance. But yes now decreased to the level I don’t anticipate every model run and track expecting anything. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 It’s always interesting to see “winter’s over” comments the same day that it snows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, 87storms said: It’s always interesting to see “winter’s over” comments the same day that it snows. Have you seen the long ranges? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 6 minutes ago, 87storms said: It’s always interesting to see “winter’s over” comments the same day that it snows. I’d love to see something to look forward to before the second half of March, but I think people are really sick of the rug pulls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asalt1 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, Fozz said: I’d love to see something to look forward to before the second half of March, but I think people are really sick of the rug pulls. By March I'd ready for Spring anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, Jersey Andrew said: Do you think we are essentially done with snow this winter in the DC metro area? Very possibly. We will see what happens with the mid March period but I’m highly skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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